SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 10 FROM THE SPIRALING CLOUD OF THE UFC APEX
PRELIMS 1 PM PST / 4 PM EST | MAIN CARD 4 PM / 7 PM
Two ranked fighters. There are fourteen fights currently scheduled for this card, which means a total of twenty-eight fighters, and two of them are ranked. The ranked fighters aren't even fighting each other. One of the fighters fighting a ranked fighter made news last year for turning down ranked fighters because the UFC wasn't paying him enough, and tonight, he is fighting to enter the top ten of his division.
It is, in theory, impossible to watch something disappear into a black hole. You can watch the initial entry, but as it gets closer you'll lose the ability to perceive its fall. It will shrink, and redden, and fade, but you could never actually see, and know, that it was too late and the thing you'd spent years watching was lost.
This is the ninety-third mainline UFC event in the Apex. There are two ranked fighters on it.
It is too early to know, but it is too late to look away.
MAIN EVENT: WARNING SIGN
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Jack Hermansson (23-8, #10) vs Joe Pyfer (12-2, NR)
Honestly, the real issue with this fight is how much worse it could have been.
Joe "Bodybagz" Pyfer won his Contender Series contract in the Summer of 2022. It was his second attempt--his first shot was back in 2020 and he dislocated his elbow posting against a Dustin Stoltzfus slam--and less than two months had passed before Pyfer made his UFC debut. Who was he fighting, again?
Alan Amedovski, with respect, is someone the UFC is trying to get rid of. He was signed as a last-minute replacement for Krzysztof Jotko in 2019, he lost, badly, twice in a row, and he spent the subsequent two and a half years pulling out of fights. This is why his return to the sport is against someone with half a foot of height and reach on him.
Oh, right. Amedovski was 0-3 in the UFC by the time he fought Pyfer, and two of those three losses came in the first round, and one of them only took a minute, and the other only took fourteen seconds. This may shock you: Joe Pyfer knocked him out in 3:55.
Is that bad matchmaking? Speaking as someone who has inexplicably chosen to devote years of his life to complaining about mixed martial arts booking, I would say: Ehh. No, Amedovski wasn't a serious matchup for Pyfer; he was very clearly chosen as a job guy to make the hot new Contender Series winner look good. But that's normal. Pyfer wasn't a bigshot international champion like Anderson Silva or a sports celebrity like Brock Lesnar, giving him a soft introduction for his rookie fight is by no means uncalled for.
Joe Pyfer's revelation that they tried to follow the Alan Amedovski fight by booking him into the top fifteen rankings, though? Now we're fuckin' talking.
For clarity's sake, at the time, the #15-ranked Middleweight in the UFC was Edmen Shahbazyan. Edmen was eight fights deep in the UFC. He'd been in the ring with folks like Derek Brunson and Nassourdine Imavov and--hey, look at that, Jack Hermansson--and was one of just three fighters to ever knock out Brad Tavares. Let's go a step further: Right now, this second, the #15-ranked Middleweight is Caio Borralho. Borralho hasn't lost a fight since 2015, had to get to 5-0 in the UFC before he got ranked, and won his ranking by beating fighters with a combined UFC record of 17-10. The last man he beat, Abus Magomedov, was the man Sean Strickland defeated right before fighting for the UFC championship.
I've spoken with no small amount of dread of the inevitably future when Contender Series fighters get pushed straight to the top as soon as they're in the UFC. Pyfer would have been--but he said no. One unranked victory later the UFC wanted him fighting Nassourdine Imavov for a #11 berth, and once again, Pyfer declined, and once again, Pyfer got an unranked guy instead. Was this a testament to a fighter wanting to be better prepared? Did someone believe in divisional structure?
No! Of course not. Joe Pyfer was just smart enough to want a better deal than the poverty wages a Contender Series contract pays you before he began risking his health and career against the to pranks. Which, honestly: Great move. More fighters should know their worth. But, fuck, it is distressing to realize we're already at the point where the UFC is willing to jetpack Contender Series guys all the way to the top ranks and we were spared it only because Joe Pyfer has some money sense.
But clearly they've come to terms, and clearly the UFC is happy with them, because Jack Hermansson is a recurring problem they would like to be rid of.
High-level gatekeepers are management's least favorite types of fighters. Once upon a time, Jack Hermansson was kind of a big deal. One of the best mixed martial artists in Sweden! Potential international draw, particularly in a post-Alexander Gustafsson world! Ran up a real impressive 7-2 record in his first couple years in the UFC and, after dominating Jacaré Souza, could have been a genuine title contender!
But that was 2019. On one hand, five years later, Jack Hermansson is still in the top ten and that's impressive as hell. On the other hand: It's five years later, and Jack Hermansson is only #10. And he keeps that ranking by being a persistent spoiler for the UFC's plans. When he was supposed to become a title contender he got blasted to hell by Jared Cannonier. When he was supposed to be a stepping stone for promotional favorite Kelvin Gastelum, Hermansson suddenly remembered his grappling and heel hooked him in just over a minute. Edmen Shahbazyan needs a comeback fight after losing his undefeated streak? Let's give him to Jack Hermansson for rehabilitation, and--whoops, Hermansson just mauled him 141-42.
Chris Curtis was a streaking contendership prospect until Jack Hermansson got through with him. Hell, Sean Strickland beat Hermansson pretty handily, and somehow Hermansson still almost won a split decision.
Jack Hermansson is a very good fighter. Jack Hermansson has definitively proven he's never going to be a champion. He couldn't stop Sean Strickland's punches, he couldn't stop Marvin Vettori's clinches, and Roman Dolidze turned him into a pretzel on the ground. The holes in his game are visible and exploitable, and multiple men have laid out fairly clear blueprints for neutralizing his bread-and-butter boxing and halting his wrestling. Or, alternatively, you can just make like Jared Cannonier and punch his god damned head off.
But the UFC has to be real, real sure someone can do one of those things. Jack's proven himself an unsafe investment for real top-card marketing dollars, but he's also proven more than capable of spoiling plans for the fighters they'd like to put on billboards. Is Joe Pyfer tall enough to ride the rollercoaster?
It's an interesting matchup. I called Hermansson's striking "bread-and-butter" a few sentences ago, and if that sounded like an insult, I assure you, it wasn't meant to be. A deceptively crisp jab and well-honed basics are still shockingly rare in mixed martial arts, and they've been enough to interrupt the rhythm of many a striker and, more importantly, open them up for the takedown. Joe Pyfer pretty unquestionably has a power advantage, and given the chance to land, he could turn Hermansson's lights out, but the last time we saw him lose was from a wrestler throwing him like a sack of bricks, and in his three UFC fights thus far, Pyfer has yet to have to defend a takedown attempt.
Unless he puts Hermansson's lights out in the first round he's inevitably going to have to defend one here, and that's where the fight will get interesting. Pyfer's no slouch as a grappler, but he makes mistakes--arm-posting, almost-getting-guillotined, fight-ending mistakes--and Hermansson's entirely capable of capitalizing on them.
But, as much as my heart is telling me otherwise, I still think JOE PYFER BY TKO is too likely to ignore. It'd be real fun to see Jack Hermansson derail yet another prospect, but I don't feel comfortable betting against the house this time.
CO-MAIN EVENT: SLIPPERY PEOPLE
FEATHERWEIGHT: Dan Ige (17-7, #13) vs Andre Fili (23-10 (1), NR)
Funnily enough, this, too, was supposed to be a promotional ascension bout. This was arguably the most interesting match on the card! But fate is fickle and so are fights.
Dan Ige is one of the UFC's steadiest hands. He was part of the first wave of Contender Series winners that damned us all back in the Summer of 2017, he was a Featherweight mainstay almost immediately and he's been a top-fifteen competitor ever since. After dozens of fights and nearly a decade of professional competition no one's ever stopped him, few people have so much as wobbled him, and he's long established himself as the rocky shoals on which prospects get dashed.
If that sounds like a redux of the backhanded-compliment Jack Hermansson gatekeeper description, Dan Ige is one of the rare fighters who wears it with pride, which, honestly, makes him more graceful than the vast majority of fighters who have ever existed. It's also objectively true. Losing a fight here and there by no means forces someone out of contention; going 1 for 5 in your career prime is a different story. At the height of his power, when the Featherweight division was at its most open, Ige fell all the way out of contendership after losing to Calvin Kattar, Chan Sung Jung, Josh Emmett and Movsar Evloev in just under two years. That's the kind of streak you have to work for years to come back from. Unfortunately, Ige's comeback tour got squashed under the suspiciously flat thumb of Bryce Mitchell last September, which firmly seals him in the gatekeeper coffin.
The UFC wanted to use him that way, here. Ige was going to be a stiff prospect test for the undefeated* British sensation Lerone Murphy, but Murphy had to pull out, further delaying British Invasion 4.0: This Time Paddy Pimblett Gets To Use An Axe.
*offer does not apply to Zubaira Tukhugov and Gabriel Santos, both of whom beat Murphy but got boned by the judges
Thus, Andre Fili, and thus, this fight enters stasis. With the turn of the calendar into 2024, Andre "Touchy" Fili has passed 10 years in the UFC, and damn near that entire run has been spent trading wins and losses back and forth, over and over, into infinity. His time in the octagon has spanned multiple terrible presidencies. A half-dozen of his UFC opponents have retired, at one point one of his eyes ceased to function for awhile, and even his home school, Team Alpha Male, has aged enough to finally, reluctantly, allow its training participants to wear shirts.
Which means there's a certain level of reverse-privilege in being Andre Fili. After 10+ years in the UFC, Andre Fili is 10-9 (1). He's as close to 50/50 as you can get while still retaining plausible deniability. He's only strung back-to-back wins together twice in his whole career, I'm not actually sure if he's ever beaten a ranked opponent, there isn't a matchmaker alive who sees him ever being a title contender, and that has absolutely no impact on his career because he's a bad motherfucker who's been catching people unawares for underestimating him since the Zune walked the Earth.
It's a stasis fight. It's a fight between stasis fighters. No one expects title aspirations or world-beating performances from them, they just know Dan Ige's gonna throw some ultra-stiff jabs and Andre Fili's gonna sneak a foot upside his head at least once and it's going to be fun.
Fun. What a fucking concept. DAN IGE BY DECISION. Fili's style is actually tougher for Ige's than most, so I cannot help expecting this to be an awful lot closer than a lot of folks seem to think it will be, but I agree Ige should keep Fili stuck on his back foot and ultimately walk away with the fight.
MAIN CARD: NOTHING BUT FLOWERS
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Ihor Potieria (20-5) vs Robert Bryczek (17-5)
I laughed like a goddamn hyena when I saw this fight come together.
Let's not delay on the lede: Robert Bryczek is the story here. In a world where the UFC is Contender Series-sourcing most of their roster, Bryczek is the increasingly rare international talent they went out of their way to sign. He's a heavy-punching standout from OKTAGON, better known as the Polish MMA organization that doesn't have Mariusz Pudzianowski in it, and the UFC poached him on the strength of a five-fight knockout streak (and as a late replacement) in the hopes of getting another big Polish knockout machine for their international marketing efforts. But that poaching happened half a year ago. Bryczek was supposed to fight Australian wrestling pariah Jacob Malkoun back in September, but he couldn't make it to the cage; take two was to be against ground-and-pound extraordinaire Albert Duraev here, but Duraev had to pull out. Bryczek needs a dance partner and the UFC needs a late replacement.
So it's Ihor Potieria. Pick on the desperate! Potieria was a product of the Contender Series, and he's one that, as of yet, has not paid off. Once upon a time, all the way back in 2021, Ihor was 18-2 and a champion in his native Ukraine: Two and a half years of good ol' America later he's 1-3 in the UFC and all three of those losses were devastating knockouts. The victory, of course, was a brutal knockout of MMA legend Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in his retirement fight in front of a cripplingly depressed Brazilian crowd that would later take out their emotions by pelting Brandon Moreno with empty beer cans. This is because, and I say this with the utmost respect, Ihor Potieria is not great. He was a champion in Ukraine, but in Ukraine he was also fighting guys who were 0-3 or sometimes just 0-0 when he was almost twenty fights deep into his career. He attacks like a man whose hands know only rage, and he defends like a man who is trying to carry six bags of groceries at once so he doesn't have to make a second trip.
Realistically, Bryczek should win this fight. Potieria's cutting to 185 for the first time, he's a late replacement, and he is terminally addicted to catching punches with his face. But Bryczek is also adjusting to a striker after preparing for a grappler, and it's a bigger, rangier striker, and when the opportunity arises I always want the funniest possible thing to happen. IHOR POTIERIA BY TKO.
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Brad Tavares (20-8) vs Gregory Rodrigues (14-5)
This is a battle of my two princes, and like the Spin Doctors before me, I, too, have got to believe in something.
Brad Tavares is one of those fighters I feel irrationally attached to. Some of it is my respect for longevity, some of it is an appreciation for his level of competition, and some, assuredly, is my desperate need to hang onto a fighter from one of the last times I felt truly invested in The Ultimate Fighter without a championship belt or Roxanne Modafferi being involved. Brad Tavares is such a generational bridge that his record includes Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya, the top Middleweights of the 2020s, Chris Weidman and Robert Whittaker, the top Middleweights of the 2010s, and, somehow, Phil Baroni, the most promising prospect of the year 2000 (and probable murderer). His gameplan has been the same since the Bush administration: Sling some leg kicks, pump some jabs, bully into the pocket, and succeed by being tougher than almost anyone on the fucking planet.
Being tougher than Gregory Rodrigues is a big ask, though. "Robocop" made a name for himself in the UFC almost immediately upon arrival for his implacability. By the beginning of 2023 he was 4-1 in the company, his only loss was a split decision that could easily have gone the other way, and his reputation as one of the toughest men in mixed martial arts had ascended to legend after a particularly horrifying fight with Chidi Njokuani that saw him end the first round with his face busted open so badly a major artery was plainly visible, and not only did he still come out for the second round, he pounded Njokuani out a minute and a half later. A fan favorite! An icon of grit! So he was, of course, immediately knocked out cold in his next fight thanks to Brunno Ferreira's insane punching power. This is, as always, the problem with having toughness as your defining feature: Not only does it mean you clearly get hit a lot, it predestines your inevitable fall.
But then, that's both men. Both guys suffered a knockout loss two fights ago--although Rodrigues got knocked out cold and Tavares has a pretty solid argument he was the victim of an early stoppage--and both had a comeback victory on the same card, with Rodrigues taking out Denis Tiuliulin and Tavares outworking the aforementioned Chris Weidman. I'd like to say Chris Weidman is a better victory than the 1-4 Tiuliulin, but in 2023, honestly, I'm not sure. I do think Gregory's clinch game and punching power are going to be hard to exert on a guy as mobile and difficult to contain as Tavares, though. Let's call it BRAD TAVARES BY DECISION.
LIGHTWEIGHT: Michael Johnson (21-19) vs Darrius Flowers (12-6-1)
I don't know what to say about Michael Johnson anymore, man. I just don't. I just finished talking about Brad Tavares as a relic from the days of The Ultimate Fighter I still cared about; Michael Johnson was on The Ultimate Fighter 12 (jesus christ) in that same calendar year, just one season later, and that was almost fourteen years ago, and not once in that decade and a half have I fallen into sync with the Michael Johnson wavelength. It was really cool that he beat Dustin Poirier! That was eight years ago. He's been this unpredictable force of irregularity since the Digital Underground still roamed the Earth, he was a coinflip away from beating Jamie Mullarkey two fights ago and being on his longest winning streak since 2015, but after multiple decades of competition he's still Michael Johnson, and we know this because the last time we saw him he put together a great first round against Diego Ferreira, looked fast, strong and on his game, and proceeded to get knocked dead with a single punch in the second.
Darrius "Beast Mode" Flowers is still an unproven quantity. The Contender Series victory that won him a contract was one of the coolest the show has seen--he countered an inverted triangle choke by hitting the one and only shoot tombstone piledriver I've ever seen--but everything since has been a story in bad scheduling. His UFC debut against Erick Gonzalez got scratched after an injury, he got tapped for a late replacement fill-in fight against Jake Matthews and tapped again two rounds in, and his followup fight with Ottman Azaitar this past November got cancelled for no apparent reason. Flowers has been a UFC fighter for a year and a half, but we've only seen him once, he barely had time to prepare, and he got folded by a kick that kind-of sort-of hit him in the junk. So we know he hits really hard, and we know he can deadlift a man and drop him on his shoulder, and we know he is vulnerable to dubiously legal kicks. But can he beat Michael Johnson?
I mean, roll a goddamn D6. Tell me which Michael Johnson we're getting. Michael Johnson, at his best, is still fast and accurate and a solid wrestler and a terrifying counterpuncher. But Michael Johnson is also about to turn 38. The likelihood that his fights go well is only narrowing, and it was never particularly broad to begin with. DARRIUS FLOWERS BY TKO.
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Rodolfo Vieira (9-2) vs Armen Petrosyan (8-2)
Fuck yes. This is a hilarious fight and I don't care. Mixed martial arts was built on the bones of style vs style matchups, but generations of development and modern-day cross-training means most fighters these days (below 205 pounds) are pretty good at everything and unlikely to be baffled by the enigmatic nature of things like "kicking someone in the leg" or "getting choked by a man." And then, like a bolt form the blue, we get Rodolfo Vieira. Rodolfo is one of the world's most accomplished Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artists, a man with more than a dozen world grappling championships, some of the best guard passing in sport jiu-jitsu history, and exactly one submission loss in competition, ever, to the equally legendary Dean Lister. And two fights into his UFC career he got choked out in two rounds by a guy named Fluffy. Rodolfo has been grappling his whole life. It's all he does. When he cannot grapple, he gets exhausted and falls apart. He's dominated the grappling in most of his UFC fights, and his takedown accuracy is still a depressing 26%, because he went 1 for 7 desperately trying to get Cody Brundage on the floor the last time we saw him, and, one fight before that, went 0 for 20 while a bemused Chris Curtis repeatedly slugged him in the face.
So what do you do with him? Why, you have him fight the purest kickboxer you have left in the division. Armen Petrosyan does not Do grappling, to the point that he, on average, completes one quarter of one takedown per fifteen-minute fight, meaning if you start watching The X-Files this very second, by the time the pilot is over and you, too, have remembered how attractive David Duchovny and Gillian Anderson really were, you will suddenly find yourself on the floor, as Armen Petrosyan will have completed his slow-motion takedown aggregation process and awkwardly picked your ankle. But he won't feel good about it, and, honestly, neither should you, because you got taken down by Armen Petrosyan. Re-examine your life, think about the choices that led to Armen Petrosyan being on top of you, and question your career path. If you think this entire paragraph might secretly be one big subtweet directed at Christian Leroy Duncan, the only man to ever lose a wrestling contest against Armen Petrosyan, it means you, clearly, aren't deep enough into your X-Files rewatch.
Every non-Duncan fighter in the UFC who has attempted a takedown on Armen has succeeded. He's good at getting up from them, some of the time, but we're also only a year and a half removed from watching Caio Borralho treat him like a grappling dummy, and Rodolfo may not be as athletic as Caio, but he's got a much tougher top game. RODOLFO VIEIRA BY SUBMISSION. Disclaimer: This offer applies only to the first eight minutes of this fight. If it winds up going to a third round, that round is going to be very, very funny to watch.
PRELIMS: SEEN AND NOT SEEN
WELTERWEIGHT: Trevin Giles (16-5) vs Carlos Prates (17-6)
At some point, the phrase 'x veteran journeyman is getting fed to y Contender Series winner' has to become meaningless, right? Because I've said it a lot, but it's not only becoming more frequent and less avoidable, this is, like, the third time I'll have said it just about Trevin Giles specifically. Giles went 50/50 at Middleweight and decided his best career path laid down 15 pounds at Welterweight, and the UFC's response was 'cool, we have this undefeated guy who just won a Contender Series fight named Michael Morales.' After recovering from his thrashing Giles managed to string together two wins, and in return, the UFC gave him Gabriel Bonfim, another, different undefeated guy who'd just won a Contender Series fight and had a successful UFC debut. And now, half a year later, it's time to rebound--with another Contender Series winner with a near-total stoppage rate. Your contractually obligatory corporate push of the week is Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates, a striker so striking-centric in his striking that he stole Johnny Eduardo's giant "Muay Thai" chest tattoo but he moved it from his abs to his pecs and redid it in cursive to make sure Nova União's lawyers didn't send him to the same hell where Renan Barao's ability to cut weight is hidden. (If nothing in that flurry of references meant anything to you, congratulations on using your early 2010s more wisely than I did.) Prates is on a six-fight knockout streak, he's got one of those irritatingly lanky builds and he's really slick at finding ways to get headkicks onto target with an extremely small amount of space, and he's not great at avoiding takedowns, but he's fast at scrambling to his feet.
Trevin Giles gets knocked out a lot. Carlos Prates knocks out a lot of people. Who do you think this prelim headliner is actually for? Prates could turn Giles off in any exchange of this fight, but he's also been fighting the caliber of competition for whom 'wing hooks while walking straight forward' is an acceptable tactic, and this is, genuinely, a step up in competition. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say TREVIN GILES BY DECISION here, but if he catches an ankle upside the head I will deny all awareness of this writeup.
LIGHTWEIGHT: Bolaji Oki (8-1) vs Timothy Cuamba (8-1)
This fight changed this very morning, and generally-speaking, when a fight changes during fight week, it does not improve. That meaningless Contender Series vs Journeyman sentence I was just talking about overusing was going to be the story of this contest, too, with Belgian-Zimbabwean knockout-artist champion Bolaji Oki as your debuting contract mill champion and Damir Hadžović as your beleaguered 4-5 veteran/victim. But as of this morning Damir is out, and in his place we have Timothy "Twilight" Cuamba. Cuamba, ironically, also won a Contender Series fight last August, but the UFC didn't pick him up because a) he went to a decision and b) Dana White didn't agree with it. But hey, Cuamba picked up a knockout win he regionals afterward! A lot afterward, actually. It was four days ago. Timothy Cuamba was signed to fight in the UFC this coming weekend despite having just had a two-round fight four days ago. What are we even doing here anymore? Did this fight really need to be maintained so badly that you just had to go out and pick up one of the Contenders you negged out of a contract because you didn't like their haircut even though they just fought last fucking week? For one, was that truly necessary, and for two, you're telling me it just had to be yet another new guy with no choice but to say yes if he ever wants in the UFC? You couldn't get any of the forty-eight unbooked Lghtweights you already have under contract who didn't get punched in the skull a week ago on the phone? It's not even his weight class! He's a fucking Featherweight!
This is one of those things that's always been lionized in the sport--look at this guy taking this short notice fight, it's so badass--and there's absolutely a legitimacy to that, but I have also always hated it, and I hate it even more now that the UFC has fully established a funnel specifically for picking off fighters before they can build any leverage or name for themselves. This isn't a cool aspect of the sport, it's a persistent managerial failure. I hope Cuamba's wrestling beats Oki's striking and this works out well for him, but BOLAJI OKI BY TKO feels irritatingly likely.
WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Loma Lookboonmee (8-3) vs Bruna Brasil (9-3-1)
I'm going to say this up front, just so it is clear: There is no Earthly force that will keep me from picking LOMA LOOKBOONMEE BY DECISION, and I am actively defying the universe by doing so. Why? Let me refer you to the last time we saw her, almost exactly one year ago at UFC 284:
Nothing Elise Reed does in this fight matters. I could tell you about my suspicions that her tentative speed and poor reactions to aggression will hurt her against Loma's fluid assaults, but truthfully? That doesn't matter either. Loma Lookboonmee has been fighting for five years, and those five years have established a simple, universal pattern: Two wins, one loss. Every time, without fail. She will defeat two women only to be felled by a third, and the universe will send the Reapers to take her and return her to the dark, unknowable space between spaces, and after time has readjusted itself she arises, better than before, to reap the wheat and return order to the universe.
The planets spun, the sun set, and Loma choked Reed out. Having received her reward, Loma is now obligated to return her luck to the coat check, lose, and begin the fifth intergalactic cycle. But today, we resist the stars. Today, we declare our independence. Our extremely small, specific independence. Some of this is because my brain has, for whatever reason, decided to latch onto Loma Lookboonmee's success as one of those points of irrational joy you get about sports, some of this is because we've seen Bruna Brasil's fighting style get disrupted into dysfunction by pressure-centric games and Loma is real good at refusing to leave the vicinity of directly in an opponent's face, and, if I'm being really honest, some of this is because Bruna Brasil uses "The Special One" as a nickname and I simply cannot sanction that. It gives me a feeling I can only describe as akin to being forced hands-first into a slurry made of thick water and sawdust.
I know the stability of the universe itself is predicated on Loma obeying the prophecy and getting outworked for fifteen minutes, but honestly, if what we're all collectively experiencing is the universe's concept of stability, burn it to the ground and let Loma's winning streak thrive on the ashes.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT: Devin Clark (14-8) vs Marcin Prachnio (16-7)
With as much respect as I can muster to surround an inherently disrespectful statement: This is the most "These guys are still here?" fight I can remember coming across in some time. And I actively hate having that reaction, because both of these men have solid, recent victories! Alonzo Menifield is the #12 Light Heavyweight in the UFC right now and Da Un Jung was in the top fifteen just a couple years ago, and Clark handily beat both of them. Khalil Rountree Jr. just made it to #8 and is agitating for a championship match, and Marcin Prachnio outstruck him 2:1 back in 2021. Clark is a solid wrestleboxer and Prachnio is a talented kickboxer. But Light Heavyweight is a goddamn wasteland that exists to consume meaning and extrude darkness, and in a sport that judges people for their worst performances, floundering is a crime. Devin Clark getting dominated by Ion Cuțelaba? That's bad. Marcin Prachnio getting knocked out by Sam Alvey? That's bad. But Marcin Prachnio being unable to finish a seemingly mentally unwell William Knight who landed only 1-3 strikes a round while combat sports veterans got bad Oliver McCall flashbacks? That's historically relevant levels of bad.
Prachnio does his best work against people who let him work at range. Devin fights in the pocket and likes to bull people to the ground. DEVIN CLARK BY DECISION is the betting line favorite and I do not at all disagree.
WELTERWEIGHT: Jeremiah Wells (12-3-1) vs Max Griffin (19-10)
As much as I complain about short-notice replacements, every once in awhile they work out. Jeremiah Wells was a minor blip on the UFC's scouting radar when Mickey Gall couldn't make it to his fight with Miguel Baeza all the way back in 2020, and Wells was the regional talent tapped to sub in on short notice, and then Baeza couldn't fight either. It took the UFC nine months to get back to Wells about his contract--not because they had a good fight lined up for him, but because they needed a short-notice replacement again. Come to think of it, his next fight was a short-notice replacement, too. God, this fuckin' company. It's particularly grating because Wells turned out to be a genuinely decent prospect: A heavy-handed puncher with solid wrestling and enough heart to get knocked down twice and still win a decision. He pounded out Warlley Alves, he choked out Blood Diamond, he became the first man to knock Court McGee out cold in a decade and a half of combat and he was building one of the division's better winning streaks until last year, when Carlston Harris averted a two-round beating and managed to choke him out. Max Griffin has, at this point, entered Honored Elder status in the UFC, and it's hard not to read that was an epitaph. He's 7-8 in the company, he's turning 39 this year (you and me both, buddy), he's been around since 2016, and in all that time he's been big and strong and scary enough to elbow a man's goddamn ear off and none of that has gotten him remotely close to contendership. The UFC gave him one last shot in 2022, capitalizing on a rare three-fight winning streak by forcing him to take the only test of Welterweight contention that matters, but like so many before him, Max Griffin simply could not pass the Neil Magny exam. So now he's stuck with prospect duty. First it was Michael Morales, now it's Jeremiah Wells.
And it is, in fairness, a solid test. Not only is Griffin still a difficult fighter to conquer, he's good at everything Wells is good at too. The primary difference here is likely to be pace. Griffin likes to pick and choose his spots; Wells likes to push and force things. Which is, of course, where Griffin kicks your leg in two or elbows your ear off. Should be fun! Still going with JEREMIAH WELLS BY DECISION.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT: Zac Pauga (6-2) vs Bogdan Guskov (14-3)
I cannot help feeling that my constant refrain of exhaustion about the Light Heavyweight division is repetitive and grating to read, and yet, I cannot help feeling exhausted by Light Heavyweight, and moreover, I have no idea how one could not be. Genuinely, stop and dissect the circumstances of this fight for a moment. Zac Pauga is 1-2 in the UFC. He ended The Ultimate Fighter 30 (jesus christ) in second place, but that was at Heavyweight. He dropped back to his home class at 205 afterward and picked up his first UFC win over Jordan Wright--who is a Middleweight. So finally, three fights into his UFC career, he had his first Light Heavyweight fight against a Light Heavyweight last June, where he struggled with Modestas Bukauskas, who is 3-4 in the company, to the point of nearly knocking himself over throwing punches, and then he lost a decision anyway. Bogdan Guskov, like so many, was a late replacement pickup. The UFC wanted Volkan Oezdemir to stay on their big Paris card after Azamat Murzakanov dropped out, so they took Bogdan "Czarevitch" Guskov, who had won his way onto the Contender Series after defeating--who was it again, Past Carl?
His 13th fight was against a guy who was 4-2, his 15th fight was a guy who was 4-1, and his last fight--well, hey, that was Brazilian veteran Carlos Eduardo, who was 20-10! And also 41. And also 1 for his last 7. And also known primarily for beating the shit out of overmatched rookies.
Oezdemir beat him. It wasn't difficult, and is notable only because, rather than pounding him out, Oezdemir submitted him, making Guskov the first person to get tapped out by Volkan Oezdemir since France's Mamadou Cisse, who retired one fight later in 2012.
This is a fight between two Light Heavyweight prospects, one of whom has yet to beat a Light Heavyweight, the other whose sole UFC appearance involved becoming the first man to get tapped by Volkan Oezdemir since the XCOM reboot came out. Two fights ago, Zac Pauga was co-main eventing cards. This is what you have to be invested in to care about the full divisional picture of the 205-pound division. And this is why I weep. BOGDAN GUSKOV BY TKO.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Hyder Amil (8-0) vs Fernie Garcia (10-4)
Let me go back to Past Carl for a second, by which I mean Past Carl of Five Fights Ago.
At some point, the phrase 'x veteran journeyman is getting fed to y Contender Series winner' has to become meaningless, right? Because I've said it a lot, but it's not only becoming more frequent and less avoidable, this is, like, the third time I'll have said it just about Trevin Giles specifically.
I was such a naive, carefree person five fights ago. Fernie Garcia has seamlessly transitioned from being the Contender Series winner to being the journeyman. The Fern Era began with his anointment in 2021 and it ended with his UFC debut that following May, where he was given his journeyman sacrifice in the form of the 0-2 (1) Journey Newsom and lost. And then proceeded to lose more, repeatedly, without exception. Now the once-hyped prospect is the gritty, weathered, veteran journeyman, 0-3 after a long eighteen months in the UFC, and with the flipping of the hourglass, he has become the hunted. Hyder "The Hurricane" Amil is your shiny new undefeated Conter Series toy, a California prospect who spent the first half of his career as a local in the eighteen prelims on every Bellator card and the second working his way to the top of the Legacy Fighting Alliance, and he was, in all fairness to him and the UFC, supposed to have an (on-paper) stiffer test here. Twice. His debut was initially booked against 3-2 Chinese prospect Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, but Shayilan couldn't make it work, and then it was 3-1 kickboxer Melsik Baghdasaryan, but the same shakeup that cost us Albert Duraev and Damir Hadžović yesterday scratched Melsik. We almost escaped the sacrificial orbit. We were so close.
HYDER AMIL BY DECISION. I'll always remember the year of ferns fondly.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Daniel Marcos (15-0) vs Aoriqileng (25-11)
My complaints about card placement are legion, but I've been a professional wrestling fan long enough to understand the urge to book an opening match people might actually want to see. Daniel Marcos is an intriguing prospect: A patient counterstriker who likes to work behind heavy kicks on the outside and abrupt, flying-knee blitzes once he thinks he can fit them in. This worked out great for him in his debut, where he became the first man to ever stop Saimon Oliveira after redecorating his abdomen to have a more 'what if you didn't have any bones or organs' kind of aesthetic. Oliveira gave him some trouble in the first round with a higher-pressure boxing approach, though, and that came back to haunt Marcos in his last fight against Davey Grant this past July. He got outstruck, he got outpunched, and he realistically should have lost a close but fairly clear decision, but he was rescued by questionable judging. So now he gets to defend his still-undefeated record against Aoriqileng, who I tried my best to finally break up with the last time we saw him:
I got emotionally invested in his potential as a real tough, hard-hitting wrestler, and, hey, you burned me once by getting beat by Cody Durden, I can cope with that level of sadness. But when Aiemann Zahabi knocks you cold in sixty-four seconds? By god, I turned on Drako Rodriguez and I'll turn on you, too.
I tried to get out. I really did. I've liked Aoriqileng's gritty all-around approach to fighting for three years, now, but at a certain point even I must admit defeat. And then Aoriqileng's crisp counterpunching hurt Johnny Munoz Jr. enough that Munoz turned into a desperate takedown machine, which only got him hurt even more, and god dammit, I'm only human. I'm sorry I doubted you, Aoriqileng. You body-punched your way right back into my heart.
Marcos is a pretty solid favorite here and he probably should be, but what is life without commitment. AORIQILENG BY DECISION.