SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 3 FROM THE INCONCEIVABLY EXTANT UFC APEX
PRELIMS 1 PM PST / 4 PM EST | MAIN CARD 4 PM / 7 PM
Just so we're clear, that isn't one of my funny 'haha look I scribbled on it' poster photoshops. They did that, not me. I don't even know anymore.
I hope you enjoyed our big lazy January, because the year has officially begun and there are no brakes on this Yukon. We're back to an event every single weekend and we will be until at least May, and in all likelihood, into the Summer. And seven of those events are scheduled for the god damned Apex, including the next two fight cards of our lives.
We're back, baby. God help us all.
MAIN EVENT: THE CO-MAIN EVENT
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Roman Dolidze (12-2, #8) vs Nassourdine Imavov (12-4 (1), #11)
You know, for all the time I spend talking about the sociopolitics of combat sports and the greater corporate issues of the UFC and the inevitable heat death of the universe, this is what home is like. It's a fight! It's just a fight! It's a pretty well-matched, rankings-relevant fight! No one has said anything about the other's dead dad, no one's called into question the rights of minorities to exist, it's just a pair of people in leather gloves consensually battering one another for not enough money.
What an incredible concept.
Roman Dolidze might feel less happy about this matchup and, honestly, it's hard to blame him. 2022 was Roman's breakout year: After a fairly unmemorable start to his time in the UFC and the loss of his undefeated streak at the merciless hands of Trevin Giles, Roman spent 2023 murdering everyone. In a span of just six months, he knocked out the never-before-stopped Kyle Daukaus, punched out the punching machine Phil Hawes, and in the best win of his career, stopped Jack Hermansson after putting him in a pro-wrestling STF and punching him until the referee realized the three-arm-drop rule doesn't exist outside of kayfabe. It was an absolutely stellar run, and it established Dolidze as a potential contender, and it got him a fight with the inexplicably always relevant Marvin Vettori for a top five slot.
The result was a fight that evenly split the media scorecards--14 for Vettori, 14 for Dolidze--but not the judges, who scored it unanimously for Vettori. Paul Sutherland, who also scored Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev a draw, gave Vettori a round that 27 of those 28 media scores had for Dolidze. Roman was, to say the least, displeased. He would be further denied his chance at a rebound: His November fight with Derek Brunson fell through after Brunson left the UFC, and his December showdown against Jared Cannonier fell through after Cannonier tore his MCL.
A fight with Jared Cannonier is a big deal! A fight with Jared Cannonier is a chance at a title shot! Instead, Roman Dolidze is now fighting Nassourdine Imavov. Nassourdine Imavov is not on the cusp of title contention, but he is Dolidze's brother in having had a terrible fucking year.
Imavov, too, looked like an interesting prospect. He, too, had a shaky start to his UFC tenure, and he, too, had a close but failing scrape with the judges in a fight that could have gone either way, and he, too, came back and rallied to an impressive three-fight winning streak by bulldozing other prospects. He knocked out Ian Heinisch, he put Edmen Shahbazyan in the crucifix and elbowed his face off, and he outworked the ever-dangerous Joaquin Buckley to a unanimous decision. He was set to main-event the first UFC card of 2023 alongside former title contender Kelvin Gastelum, and a win could have given Imavov his highest-profile berth yet.
And then Kelvin pulled out a week before the fight and got replaced with Sean Strickland.
Imavov couldn't handle the jabs and, unknowingly, ushered in the thousand years of darkness that was the 2023 UFC title picture. It took five months for Imavov to resurface, and this time, it was against Chris Curtis, and this time, Imavov unintentionally slammed a headbutt into Curtis's eye and the fight was waved off as a No Contest. The UFC tried to get Imavov back in the cage one last time in October as a sacrificial lambworthy challenger for the unranked Ikram Aliskerov, but visa issues forced Imavov to sit out the rest of the year.
Which is where we leave the periphery of the Middleweight top ten. Both of these men are worthwhile prospects, both have some solid strengths, both came within spitting distance of contendership, and now both are a year removed from anything resembling victory and desperately trying to get some momentum back.
The odds have Imavov as the narrow favorite here, and I get why: Dolidze looked sluggish and unimpressive against Marvin Vettori. He threw giant winging hooks, he failed to adjust his gameplan when things went poorly, and he didn't have any particular answer for getting jabbed across the cage. Imavov's a clean, mobile striker, and he's a solid grappler in his own right, which means Dolidze's secret "throw you on the ground and remove your joints" techniques won't save him here. The logic makes sense.
But the thing is: Despite looking sluggish and unimpressive against Marvin Vettori, Dolidze arguably still beat Marvin Vettori. He awkwardly slugs his way in because he's learned from experience that it's effective. Imavov's faster and more accurate, but he's also demonstrated trouble dealing with that kind of pressure against Strickland, Buckley and Curtis. Over five rounds, ROMAN DOLIZE BY TKO feels right.
CO-MAIN EVENT: THE MAIN EVENT
LIGHTWEIGHT: Renato Moicano (17-5-1, #13) vs Drew Dober (27-12 (1), #15)
It's always difficult when you don't want either fighter to lose.
The last time we saw Renato Moicano, I said this.
Renato Moicano is one of those heartbreaking fighters to love. He's got all the tools--his striking is fast and multifaceted, his grappling is deadly and he's got heart to spare--but like so many before them, he just can't quite put them together with a solid defense, and it's gotten him nuked every time he fights someone in the top five.
Thankfully that night he was fighting Brad Riddell, whom he choked out in one round. It was Moicano's best victory in years, it established him as a top fifteen Lightweight, and it began his Moicano Wants Money social media campaign, which succeeded in getting him some actual attention.
That was, unfortunately, almost a year and a half ago. He was scheduled to get another crack at the top ten against Arman Tsarukyan, but Moicano's knee exploded, he had to get surgery, and now no one's seen him since November of 2022. Whether that's better or worse than what might have happened if he'd fought Arman is up to your imagination and your belief in Moicano's ability not to get repeatedly hit in the face. I would like it noted on the record that I, personally, believe in Renato Moicano. Some folks have tried to write him off as a gatekeeper based on his losses, but when the worst loss on your record is Chan Sung goddamn Jung, I think underrating you is a mistake.
Underrating Drew Dober has, historically, been the fall of many a fighter. I've spoken of Dober in the past as a bizarre, time-displaced anomaly of modern mixed martial arts--a man who's been around so long that people either overlook him as a lost veteran or repeatedly forget his near-twenty years of combat or his time on The Ultimate Fighter 15 (jesus christ) alongside folks like Dakota Cochrane and Chris Tickle--and he is forced to remind everyone of his existence by violently detonating the contents of a man's skull. It has been five and a half years since Drew Dober won a fight by anything other than a horrifying knockout. The last man he beat by decision retired before Joe Biden took office.
But that tactic only works until you meet the man you cannot punch. It was Beneil Dariush in 2019, it was Islam Makhachev and the aforementioned Brad Riddell in 2021, and after spending all of 2022 working himself back into the mix with three more devastating knockouts, he went to war with Matt "The Steamrolla" Frevola in one of the most-anticipated gunfights of 2023 and he just plain got outshot. After four minutes of back-and-forth brawling Frevola dropped and finished Dober, and while Dober took umbrage with the stoppage, his visible wobbliness and the eighteen unanswered punches he took meant few were sympathetic. He returned to form by crushing Ricky Glenn in October, but he wants back in the relevant rankings.
This is an unpredictable fight. Renato Moicano has better range and better kicks, but he's no match for Dober's power, and Moicano's tendency to get hit is a real red flag for his chances. Drew Dober can stop the fight with a single punch, but his takedown and grappling defense have both failed him repeatedly in the past, and Moicano is fantastic at scrambling and snatching chokes. But Moicano's also fighting fifteen months of ring rust and he has a bad habit of fighting like he's got something to prove, and that pride gets you killed in combat sports.
But I said I believed in him, and I meant it. As easy as it is to see a Dober hook shutting him off just like Rafael Fiziev did, I believe in Moicano's ability to kick into the clinch and get this on the ground. RENATO MOICANO BY SUBMISSION.
MAIN CARD: WARS OF ASCENSION
WELTERWEIGHT: Randy Brown (17-5) vs Muslim Salikhov (19-4)
This is my favorite kind of fight: One I already wrote several months ago. Randy Brown and Muslim Salikhov were supposed to fight on the prelims of the sin-cursed card that was Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington last December, but Brown fell ill 48 hours beforehand and the fight had to be cancelled. For as much as the UFC complains about the perception that Apex cards are less important or less stacked than any of their other cards, it sure is telling that a prelim-opener from just six weeks ago is suddenly a top-of-the-main-card fight, but, y'know, fuck the fans. I give you Carl circa the halcyon days of last December.
We'll call this the Please Watch The Prelims fight, because boy, this is awful low on the card for how notable both of these men are and how much fun it could really be. Randy Brown has been so close to a top fifteen ranking that the UFC actually used him to springboard rising star Jack Della Maddalena into the rankings at the start of 2023. It makes sense; Brown's tall and rangy and dangerous as hell, but the UFC's also seen him just fail to crack the ceiling and break out of the dreaded 'he's got so much potential' damning-with-faint-praise status three times, now, and eventually, they start feeding you to people. Muslim Salikhov is on his own first real run-in with the glass ceiling. He, too, had a great five-fight winning streak that got him to the cusp of the rankings, and he, too, got blown out of the water by Li Jingliang, ending his hopes on the spot. He's 1-1 since, having joined the long line of UFC fighters who knocked out Andre Fialho but failed to get past the somehow-once-again-relevant Nicolas Dalby this past June. One of them will consume the other's momentum and return to grace; one will be cast into the pit.
The betting lines pretty steadily favor Randy Brown, and I get why. He's got a huge size and reach advantage and Muslim's difficulty with clinch grappling like Randy's gets him in trouble. But, as I write this, I am delirious with fever, and in my dreams I see Salikhov striking through Randy's sometimes loose hands and unexpectedly taking him out. My dreams also tell me to call all of my exes and move to Norway, so I do not recommend you bet accordingly, but I, personally, have no choice but to obey the inscrutable exhortations of my soul. MUSLIM SALIKHOV BY TKO.
WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT: Viviane Araujo (12-5, #7) vs Natália Silva (16-5-1, #9)
This is a straight-up fight of ascension, and I am wholly here for it. Viviane Araujo's last few years have been a constant back-and-forth struggle, with her stiff punches and solid defense keeping her perpetually stuck between the end of the top fifteen and the beginning of the top ten where the truly world-class fighters would inevitably defeat her, and midway through 2023 she was on a two-fight losing streak and coming up on the dreaded potential third consecutive loss against sizable betting favorite Jennifer Maia. But Araujo pulled out the upset, won a decision, and rocketed into the top ten as a big new contender!
Well, kind of. Sort of. Actually, it was a really close decision that saw Maia outland her on significant strikes almost 2:1 and a lot of people think Maia should have taken it. Generally, when something like that happens, you can tell what the company thinks of the decision and the winner's prospects by the way they book them in their next fight. Are you getting an upward trajectory? Are you being set up for success?
Or are they, say, making you fight two positions in the rankings down against an undefeated prospect on a winning streak that most betting markets have as just about a -300 favorite against you?
Natália Silva is one of the UFC's big new hopes, and unlike the majority of those hopes, they've been bringing her up in steps. She spent her rookie year in 2022 fighting fellow newcomers, and after outworking Jasmine Jasudavicius and spinkicking Tereza Bledá to death off they spent 2023 bumping her up to the embattled veteran circuit, where she promptly dropped Victoria Leonardo and thoroughly outfought the terminally underrated Andrea Lee. Silva's entirely earned her berth in the top ten, her kicks might be the most dangerous strikes Women's Flyweight has to offer, and a 92% takedown defense rate has kept her easily beating people about the face and legs with them in her four fights thus far.
I don't see that changing here. I underrated Viviane's chances against Maia, but even though she won, she showcased exactly the kind of hittability that made me doubt her in the first place. Silva hits much harder, much faster and much more accurately than Maia, and unless Viviane can catch her kicks, plant her on the ground and refuse to let her up, she's going to take a beating. NATÁLIA SILVA BY DECISION.
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Aliaskhab Khizriev (14-0) vs Makhmud Muradov (26-8)
You are witnessing a battle between men who barely exist. When Aliaskhab Khizriev won his contract on the Contender Series he was considered a solid get for the UFC: An undefeated champion out of Dagestan with crushing wrestling and a serious finishing rate who'd just beaten the stuffing out of Rousimar Palhares! ...two years beforehand. Khizriev sat out nine months of 2018, all of 2019, and nine months of 2020 before his one-minute-long submission victory for Dana White's Private Fights. You may be noticing that 2020 is, in fact, four years ago. Well, don't worry! Aliaskhab Khizriev has fought in the last four years! It'd be silly if he hadn't!
Granted, y'know, it was only once.
After four reschedulings, Khizriev finally made his UFC debut in March of 2022. He choked out Dennis Tiuliulin, who was also making his debut, and then he dusted off his hands, smiled, and vanished in a puff of smoke, never to be seen again. It has been almost another two full years since we saw Aliaskhab Khizriev. He's an undefeated Dagestani superstar and I assume he will, in fact, show up this weekend, but statistically-speaking, I'm wrong.
Makhmud Muradov isn't quite as bad, but the numbers are against him, too. He's 4-2 in the UFC! That's a good number! That's six whole fights! It's also one less than the amount of UFC fights he's had cancelled. He only made it out once in 2022, he only made it out once in 2023, and he's getting an early start on 2024 because, by god, he has a Summer vacation to plan for. Muradov is a striker through and through, as his admittedly impressive seventeen knockouts indicate, and he's also got almost half a foot of height going for him, as, at 5'9", Khizriev is the shortest Middleweight in the company.
It feels way more likely that something happens between the time of this writing and the time of this fight that keeps it from actually taking place. Someone will get COVIDbe undefinedly too ill to fight, or Khizriev's visa will fall through, or Muradov's knee will explode, or both men will be on the same plane and it will fall through a rift in time and they'll wind up watching Bronson Pinchot get eaten alive by beach balls with chainsaw teeth. All of these things are more mathematically probable than these men successfully making their cage walks.
But if they do, ALIASKHAB KHIZRIEV BY SUBMISSION.
WELTERWEIGHT: Gilbert Urbina (7-2) vs Charles Radtke (8-3)
Sometimes you get into the UFC through extenuating circumstances. Gilbert "The RGV Bad Boy" Urbina, which is a nickname I refuse to let him forget he willingly goes by, was a finalist on The Ultimate Fighter 29 (jesus christ). This is not because he won; he, in fact, got knocked out by Tresean Gore. But Gore injured his knee training for the final, and the UFC needed a body, and thus, Gilbert. He put up a solid fight against Bryan Battle, but ultimately got choked out midway through the second round. And then--and, boy, this seems like a real recurring theme on this card--he vanished for two fucking years. It wasn't until May of 2023 that we saw Urbina again, and it earned him his sole UFC victory after he front-kicked Cosce's ribs into dust.
Orion Cosce, of course, was only still in the UFC thanks to his victory over Israel Adeanya's training partner, the inexplicably-pushed Mike "Blood Diamond" Mathetha, who Cosce wrestled into paste. Why do I bring this up? Because Charlie "Chuck Buffalo" Radtke, too, is in the UFC thanks to his winning the Blood Diamond sweepstakes. Radtke was just a few months removed from winning the Cage Fury Fighting Championships Welterweight Championship in front of a crowd of dozens when he got the call up to the UFC because Blood Diamond needed another opponent. Radtke took the chance, and he won, and now he's got a contract! But it sure wasn't pretty. He went 1 for 6 on his takedowns, he managed no submission attempts, and he actually got outstruck en route to his decision victory.
And, if you pull down tape on Radtke, that's kind of a recurring theme. Even that championship victory saw Raheam Forest freezing him up with punches and dragging him to the mat. Gilbert Urbina is not only an equally tenacious wrestler and a less touchy striker, he's also 6" taller and much more adept at breaking bones with his feet. GILBERT URBINA BY TKO.
PRELIMS: RIP SHANE MCGOWAN
WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Molly McCann (13-6) vs Diana Belbiţă (15-8)
Oh, Meatball Molly. I'm going to take you back to when we last saw Molly McCann, the long, long-ago time that was July of 2023.
Molly did her job and crushed Goldy in a single round. She was on a three-fight winning streak, she was getting one of the UFC's biggest marketing pushes--everything was going her way.
And then, in one of the most inexplicable choices I've ever seen, the UFC decided to have her fight stone-cold killer Erin Blanchfield. In New York.
In the middle of the prelims.
I still don't get it, and neither did Molly. Blanchfield tore her arm apart in the first round and that was that. The UFC sacrificed her to one of their best fighters in front of a handful of people with no fanfare. And now, realizing they broke their toy, they want to glue it back together.
Julija Stoliarenko was supposed to be a tune-up fight for Molly McCann; an attempt at rebuilding their British star after they inexplicably cut her legs out from under her. Instead, it wound up being the best night of Julija's career: Just like Blanchfield, she took Molly down and nearly snapped her elbow in a single round, only this time it was in Molly's backyard. You tried to pitch her a softball and beaned her by mistake. How do you try it again?
You have her fight someone she already dominated. That's right: This is, in fact, Molly McCann vs Diana Belbiţă 2. They fought in 2019--in Diana's UFC debut!--and thanks to a point deduction for cheating and a 10-8 round for just generally getting the absolute crap beaten out of her, Molly won a unanimous 30-25 decision. It wasn't competitive, it wasn't close, and in Diana's four fights since then she's gone 2-2 and really hasn't looked all that different. This isn't a fight to see who's best; that was pretty definitively proven quite some time ago. This is a fight to see if the UFC thinks Molly McCann is still worth a marketing investment.
If there is an x-factor here, it's the weight cut. After being bounced from contention and rankings alike at her Flyweight home this will be Molly's first attempt at dropping to 115 pounds. It's by no means an impossible cut for her--she was one of the smaller 125-pound women in the company--but it's the only real question mark on a fight that otherwise seems fairly cut-and-dry. If Molly has trouble with the cut, if she's weakened by it too much to outwrestle Diana the same way she did the last time around, it could get messy. If not? MOLLY MCCANN BY DECISION.
FLYWEIGHT: Charles Johnson (13-6) vs Azat Maksum (17-0)
Charles Johnson, welcome to the chopping block. The UFC didn't have a great deal of investment in "InnerG" and his future at any point, honestly--when your promotional debut is against Muhammad Mokaev in London, they know exactly what they're doing--but after beating Zhalgas Zhumagulov and Jimmy Flick, Johnson seemed to have some life left in him despite his sacrificial status. The entirety of 2023 was spent having that light furiously snuffed out. Johnson went 0-3 on the year, with each loss getting just a touch sadder than the last. In his most recent fight with Rafael Estevam he actually outstruck Estevam 116 to 35, and he still lost a unanimous decision, and it wasn't even remotely controversial. The UFC has absolutely no interest in helping him avert his tailspin: Azat "Qazaq" Maksum was brought into the company last year as a heralded, internationally-relevant prospect, he remained undefeated despite a real, real close split decision over Tyson Nam in his debut, and this fight was in fact supposed to be Maksum's strike at the top twenty against the more successful Nate Maness, but an injury laid him low.
Arguably, if you're on three losses in a row, you shouldn't be taking late replacement bookings against highly dangerous undefeated competitors, but unfortunately, if you're on three losses in a row, you probably know you don't have much of a choice. AZAT MAKSUM BY DECISION and I hope we see Johnson again in the PFL or something.
WELTERWEIGHT: Themba Gorimbo (11-4) vs Pete Rodriguez (5-1)
It's been a wild ride for Themba Gorimbo and it hasn't even been a year since his UFC debut. Themba came over as the Welterweight kingpin of South Africa's Extreme Fighting Championship, had a fair bit of hype going for him as one of the best prospects out of one of the most ignored continents in the sport, and promptly got choked out by AJ Fletcher. He came back with a workmanlike victory over Takashi Sato three months later, but honestly, less people noticed that than his being gifted a house by wrestler/movie star/future dystopian political leader The Rock after Gorimbo informed the world that, as a two-fight UFC veteran, he had $7.49 in his bank account and slept on a couch in a storage room at his team's gym. Christ, this fucking sport. It's not that Themba is bad; he's actually quite well-rounded. But it's the sort of well-rounded that's preyed upon by specialists like Fletcher. Pete "Dead Game" Rodriguez was the winner of the late replacement sweepstakes two years ago: The legendarily cursed UFC 270 saw a dozen fights fall through on its way to the air, and among them was rising star Jack Della Maddalena's tilt against Warlley Alves. The 4-0 regional rookie Rodriguez was willing to fill in and get dutifully knocked dead in one round. His reward was the opportunity to play hitman against one of Dana White's most hated fighters, noted CM Punk slayer Mike "The Truth" Jackson, whom he ejected from the UFC after crushing his face with a knee. And, uh, that's it. Rodriguez was supposed to fight Natan Levy at Lightweight a few months later, he was too ill to fight, they rescheduled for May, and the fight was called off when it became clear Rodriguez was going to miss weight by almost ten pounds. And now--say it with me, you know this song by now--we haven't seen him since 2022.
Which is why he's here. This was supposed to be Gorimbo facing Kiefer Crosbie, but Crosbie couldn't make it, and a late replacement is the best chance Rodriguez has at getting booked after his 2023 debacle. I'm glad he's getting another chance and I'm glad to see him again; that said, THEMBA GORIMBO BY SUBMISSION.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Blake Bilder (8-1-1) vs Jeong Yeong Lee (10-1)
I'm cautiously optimistic about this fight. Both of these men were supposed to be real big hyped prospects for the Featherweight division, and both ran into some real big speedbumps the last time we saw them. Blake Bilder traded in his Cage Fury championship belt for a shot at the contract mill, won his way into Dana White's good graces, and hopped over to the UFC last year, where his mixture of hard kicks and gritty wrestling earned him a debut victory, but cost him in his sophomore appearance. He couldn't take down Kyle Nelson, and having lost the ability to disguise his striking with his wrestling, he got picked apart for two rounds and lost his undefeated streak. Similarly, Jeong Yeong Lee put his Road FC championship on the shelf and left South Korea to enter 2022's Road to UFC tournament, and he was, easily, the most impressive fighter in its first two rounds. He cut through his quarter and semi-final opponents in under a minute apiece, and coming into the championship final against China's Yi Zha, he was a heavy, heavy favorite. And he won! Kind of. He outstruck Yi Zha to a split decision, but he also spent almost 2/3 of the fight being outwrestled and would, almost certainly, have lost that decision were it not for a referee error: When Lee illegally upkicked Zha during a grappling exchange, referee Mark Smith inexplicably punished Zha by taking away his grounded position and restarting the fight on the feet, where Lee had the clear advantage.
But that wrestling weakness is going to haunt him here. Bilder isn't quite as fast as Yi Zha, but he is bigger, stronger, and even more doggedly persistent, and his chin has held up to some fairly stiff assaults. Jeong Yeong Lee is very good at hurting people and he could do it again given a chance, but BLAKE BILDER BY DECISION after wrestling the shit out of him seems entirely plausible.
WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT: Julija Stoliarenko (11-7-1) vs Luana Carolina (9-4)
I wonder what it's like to be a UFC fighter, look at your booking on a card, and see that someone you just absolutely destroyed in your last fight is booked into a more prominent position than you. I have to imagine that fucking sucks. We already went over it a few paragraphs up when we discussed Molly McCann, but to recap, Julija Stoliarenko was the 1-for-her-last-5 veteran the UFC was counting on to reheat their leftover meatballs for them, and despite being a +200 underdog Julija pulled an upset, threw Molly on the ground and damn near broke her arm in front of a deeply unhappy London crowd. It was the best victory of her career, it was easily the most visible fight of her career, and to capitalize on it, the UFC has buried her three fights from the bottom of an Apex card against Luana Carolina, who is most famous for, hilariously enough, getting knocked out by...Molly McCann. Are these things just put together by nearest-neighbor word clouds or something? Does the UFC book women's MMA through stream of consciousness? Is that why McCann got fed to Erin Blanchfield in the first place? Luana Carolina had a fair bit of early success in the UFC, including a victory over Lupita Godinez that has aged extremely well, but her last two and a half years have been characterized primarily by struggle. She got soundly outfought by McCann for two rounds before being destroyed with a spinning elbow, she got thoroughly worked by Joanne Wood (to what was still a split decision, because judges exist to make life irritating), and she was saved from a possible cut after upsetting the debuting Ivana Petrović last July.
Luana has picked up a reputation for winning through ineffective strike and clinch spam. As much as I want to defend her--and there are some decent defensive wrinkles to her game--it's been almost five years since she really visibly hurt someone with her strikes and we're closing in on a decade since her last actual finish. But Julija Stoliarenko is almost entirely a ground specialist, and Luana's flightiness and grappling defense make her difficult to pin down for long. I'd really love to see the Stoliarenko recovery tour continue, but LUANA CAROLINA BY DECISION seems more accurate.
LIGHTWEIGHT: MarQuel Mederos (8-1) vs Landon Quiñones (7-2-1)
There's something about this that leaves me feeling intensely depressed. MarQuel Mederos is a perfectly cromulent fighter, but he carries all the targeted-marketing signs of the Contender Series: Big for his weight class, still in his twenties, allergic to takedowns, never got a submission in his life, not even a year removed from fighting the 8-11 Justice "The Gavel" Lamparez on the regional circuit. To be clear, I don't dislike him! He's got power and timing, and those two traits don't cross over often, and I can see him doing some real cool shit in the UFC. But the Contender Series has done such a thorough job grinding the unmarketable grapplers out of the UFC's rookie roster that I cannot help having a knee-jerk reaction against it. I am not immune to bias, just like Landon Quiñones is not immune to chokes. The ostensible format of The Ultimate Fighter 31 (jesus christ) was fresh-faced prospects against old, hardened veterans, but that format flew out the window when seven of the eight prospects got skunked in the first round and the last (godspeed, Rico DiSciullo) fell in the semi-finals. Landon was no different: As a Lightweight prospect he got matched up with Jason Knight, whom a friend of mine used to affectionately refer to as Hick Diaz, and Knight choked him out in under a minute. Rather than giving Quiñones a gentle landing for his actual UFC debut the company booked him against the formerly top fifteen-rated Nasrat Haqparast, and Quiñones put up an extremely respectable fight and badly hurt Nasrat with leg kicks, but he didn't hurt him enough to avert a wide, 30-27 decision loss.
So it's depressing, but at least it's also interesting. Both guys are big power punchers, Mederos has shown a little more historical patience about picking his shots, Quiñones has demonstrated a little more of a well-rounded approach to his striking. I'm leaning towards LANDON QUIÑONES BY DECISION, but this could go about a million different ways.
HEAVYWEIGHT: Thomas Petersen (8-1) vs Jamal Pogues (10-4)
I am not unaware that I struggle to talk respectfully about the Heavyweight division. I try very hard to be respectful when I talk about fighters, because, boy, fighting fucking sucks. Being a professional mixed martial artist means willingly participating in a mostly-disrespected sport that's treated like a joke by most of its own promoters where your most realistic hope is mortgaging your health for a fraction of its worth in front of a fanbase that will turn on you the second you lose or, worse, win in a way that does not personally please them. The fighters are very rarely the problem with professional fighting, and even the unsuccessful fighters are some of the toughest people on Earth. Harry Hunsucker dedicated his entire life to martial arts and spent years honing his skills and it earned him an 0-3 UFC record that lasted less than four minutes. Fighting is hard.
But god, the Heavyweight division is just a deeply unfortunate place, and when two of your touted Heavyweight prospects are the guy who got knocked out by Waldo "Salsa Boy" Cortes-Acosta and the guy who looked barely mobile by a third round against Mick Parkin last year, I cannot stop the flow of negativity. I'm sorry, Thomas and Jamal. You deserve better, but I just don't have the love in my heart for this. Let's say THOMAS PETERSEN BY SUBMISSION and hope we're right.