CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 86: LET'S GIVE IT ANOTHER TRY
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Walker 2
SATURDAY, JANUARY 13 FROM THE VILLAINOUS CREVASSE OF THE UFC APEX
PRELIMS 1 PM PST / 4 PM EST | MAIN CARD 4 PM / 7 PM
So, did you enjoy your Winter break?
Going into year three of doing these writeups and, thus, the second time I've had a writing vacation: Coming back is weird. I've been trying to draft an editorial about the philosophical logistics of being an MMA fan in the modern era, but something about it hasn't quite gelled, and the sense of returning to the UFC after a month off is a great, abstract expression of the conflict. I missed you, combat sports! I missed your weirdness and your excellence. I missed your combination of silliness and seriousness. I missed the nonsensical combination of incredible discipline and the dumbest shit in the world. What do you have for me, now that we're back? How are we reigniting the passion that fires our souls?
An instant rematch of a three-minute No Contest from two and a half months ago?
At Light Heavyweight?
In the Apex?
Boy, you really shouldn't have.
MAIN EVENT: WATCHING RERUNS IN THE DARK
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT: Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1 (1), #3) vs Johnny Walker (21-7 (1), #7)
Hey, didn't we just see this fight? Yes! Sort of.
If you can't remember the UFC of three months ago--which, speaking as someone who writes weekly essays about it, same--this fight originally took place third from the top at UFC 294 back in October. At the time, I had this to say:
LIGHT-HEAVYWEIGHT: Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1, #2) vs Johnny Walker (21-7, #7)
Magomed Ankalaev has had a rough year. It took a nine-fight winning streak for Magomed Ankalaev to get a shot at the light-heavyweight title, which is an absolutely absurd number for a weight class that barely has a top fifteen, and even then, his opportunity only came because champion Jiří Procházka had to abruptly relinquish the belt. Ankalaev did the UFC a favor, stepped up to a five-round main event on short notice, fought the top contender in Jan Błachowicz, and should have won the fight--only for the judges to instead score a good ol' Nobody Wins split draw. The UFC, in its eternal sensitivity, responded in the form of Dana White shitting all over Błachowicz and Ankalaev in the post-fight presser for leaving it up to the judges in the first place. Both men were thrown aside and the next title shot was given to Jamahal Hill, who won the belt--by decision--and, six months later, gave it up after blowing out his ankle playing basketball. It's been almost an entire year since we last saw Magomed Ankalaev; almost a year since he was robbed of the world championship he rightfully deserved. Is he facing a top contender? Is he getting a shot at the somehow once again vacant belt?
No! He's fighting Johnny Walker, because fuck you, that's why. Walker is one of the UFC's favorite guys--a 2018 Contender Series winner who, much like Khamzat Chimaev, had a weird charisma, a penchant for fast finishes and a willingness to take fights on extremely quick turnarounds--and they were happily jetpacking him straight to a title shot right up until Corey Anderson knocked him out in one round. Anderson, of course, would be cut one fight later, but Walker spent three years working his way into relevancy again after constant, repeated setbacks. It wasn't until this year that he finally managed to string back-to-back wins together again, thanks half to slightly less stiff competition and half to a renewed focus on taking his time, executing more tactical gameplans and finding his way to power shots rather than trying to force the finish as fast as possible. Which, for a fighter so built on impulsiveness that he once dislocated his shoulder doing The Worm during a post-knockout celebration, is no small accomplishment.
A year ago I would've had this marked as an easy night for Ankalaev. Today, I'm significantly less certain. When last we saw him, while he still should have won the fight, he nearly got his legs kicked in half by Jan Błachowicz. His inability to find Jan's timing let alone defend himself ably is already concerning against Johnny Walker's greater speed, power and range; the Johnny Walker we saw in his last fight out who hobbled Anthony Smith with calf kicks is particularly concerning. But Walker still has trouble with pressure, and Ankalaev is more than willing to grind him into the fence until he can drag him to the floor, and I'm still going for MAGOMED ANKALAEV BY DECISION at the end of the day. But Walker kicking Magomed's legs off is an entirely real possibility.
Unfortunately UFC 294 was an incredibly cursed card, featuring things like 'Russian kickboxer with one functioning eye who somehow gets licensed anyway' and 'woman gets medically cleared only to spend her post-fight interview talking about her active, bleeding staph infections' and 'Khamzat Chimaev vs noted Welterweight Kamaru Usman in a 185-pound title eliminator' and 'Alexander Volkanovski rematches Islam Makhachev with one week to prepare.' Did that curse extend to our Light Heavyweight tilt?
To answer that, let me give you some at-the-time reactions to the fight from our fight community:
oops all fouls
dude lol
just a remarkably dumb card
just fucking close light heavyweight
Whoops, that last one was just me.
Magomed Ankalaev was checking leg kicks and landing shots to the body, Johnny Walker was playing possum and trying to catch him with flying knees and heavy kicks, Ankalaev threw him to the floor and tried to use his grappling advantage, and three minutes and thirteen seconds into the fight Ankalaev threw a knee at Walker while he still had a knee on the floor, which is illegal because, as any martial artist knows, if your kneecap is making contact with the ground you get an unfair health debuff.
This has been the story of Magomed Ankalaev's UFC career. Back in 2020 he lost an entire year of his prime being forced into a repeatedly-rescheduled rematch with Ion Cuțelaba after a referee screwed up their first fight. Ankalaev went undefeated across four years and nine fights and only got a title match because Jiří Procházka's shoulder exploded and the belt was vacant. Ankalaev pretty clearly won that fight, but Michael Bell, one of my least favorite judges, stuck him with a draw. Ankalaev went on ice for almost an entire year and came back not to a title fight, or even a promised title eliminator, but rather, the ill-fated Johnny Walker fight. Once again, things went wrong--though, in fairness, it's his fault this time--and once again, Ankalaev is in stasis, and he can't move on until we re-do yet another fight.
Have my feelings about this fight changed at all? Not really. They only had three minutes to play with, but Ankalaev was striking effectively and grounded Walker on his first attempt at a takedown. Has the likelihood that Ankalaev will get his richly-deserved championship fight with a victory here increased any?
Well, Jamahal Hill says he's coming back around May and the UFC has promised him an immediate title shot, and being a crown jewel of the Contender Series, that's probably a safe bet. And the #5-ranked Aleksandar Rakić is fighting the formerly-shoulderless former champion Jiří Procházka at UFC 300 in April, which would almost certainly crown a new #2 in the division.
And the rumored main event of UFC 300 is Light Heavyweight champion Alex Pereira against interim Heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, meaning the champion may not even be available until the Fall.
MAGOMED ANKALAEV BY DECISION, but look forward to seeing him fight Jan Błachowicz in yet another rematch later this year because, y'know, he just hasn't earned it yet the way people the UFC likes more inexplicably have.
CO-MAIN EVENT: WHY DON'T YOU TWEET ABOUT IT
FLYWEIGHT: Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, #5) vs Manel Kape (19-6, #6)
This fight is happening thanks to a combination of bad luck, bad timing and being a weird shithead, and nothing is as emblematic of this era of the sport as that sentence.
There are two elephants competing for space in this room, and we're going to deal with the more respectable of them first: This is a rematch. Three years ago Manel Kape dropped the Rizin Bantamweight Championship in the garbage and made the pilgrimage to the UFC--which was fantastic timing, to be honest, as COVID was about to destroy Rizin's ability to book international talent anyhow--and lost his hype by taking two losses in as many months. The first fight was an entirely uncontroversial unanimous decision loss to future champion Alexandre Pantoja; the second was an incredibly close split decision loss against Matheus Nicolau. Kape, of course, called both losses bullshit injustices committed by bad judges and insisted he deserved better.
This will come up later.
Nicolau's career over the following years has been one of quiet, ultimately failed contendership. He didn't have any huge highlights or fight-of-the-night awards or fun internet meltdowns that could be used as marketing material. He was just--shockingly--a very good fighter. After four straight UFC victories he got his title eliminator against Brandon Royval last April, Royval knocked him out in the first round, and just like that, Nicolau was back to defending his position against lower-ranked fighters.
Over that same timeframe, Manel Kape has become known for two things. One of them is being absolutely snakebitten. At this point, Kape has lost multiple years of his career to fights not panning out. He signed with the UFC in 2020 but didn't debut until 2021 thanks to opponents getting injured, he spent almost all of 2022 on the shelf thanks to failing a steroid metabolite test and Rogério Bontorin fucking up his weight cut, and he only fought once in three scheduled 2023 fights: First Alex Perez pulled out after having a seizure while warming up for their fight in March, then Deiveson Figueiredo wasn't medically cleared for their July showdown, and Kai Kara-France pulled out of a September match after getting concussed in training.
Which would, one would think, engender an incredible amount of sympathy for Manel Kape, who keeps getting screwed through no fault of his own! Unfortunately, he's responded to it primarily by being a huge asshole. His love of insane screeds is more famous than his fights--Alex Perez didn't have medical issues, he was just a coward and his DNA is an abomination, Deiveson is fat, weak and old and too scared to fight a killer like Kape, and when Kape beat replacement opponent Felipe dos Santos this past September, he used his post-fight victory interview to insult Kara-France and call him and his entire training camp gay slurs.
Remember when using slurs on UFC broadcasts was a bad thing fighters got punished for? Boy, I miss those days.
The fighters themselves haven't changed much at all, but Kape's profile has, and despite their first fight being exceptionally close, Kape is a big favorite here. I get why: He's a more popular quantity, he's a harder hitter, and Nicolau's coming off a KO loss. Kape blitzing him and moving on to contendership is the logical throughline, and you could make an entirely sensible argument he should've won that split decision in the first place. But he also likes to fight cocky, and he also paces himself really oddly, and his biggest opponent in fights tends to be his own bullshit.
Or maybe I just think it'll be funny if Kape fumbles it again. Either way, MATHEUS NICOLAU BY DECISION.
MAIN CARD: IF THIS RUINS UFC 300 I'LL BE PISSED
LIGHTWEIGHT: Jim Miller (36-17 (1)) vs Gabriel Benítez (23-10)
There were eleven fights, for a total of twenty-two fighters, on the supercard that was UFC 100 back in 2009. Unless you count bareknuckle MMA--which you shouldn't--there are only two fighters from that card still competing in mixed martial arts. One of them is Jon Jones, who is more of an ephemeral spirit of malice that occasionally passes back through our sport to see if he left any cash and/or weed in its glove compartment. The other is Jim Miller. Jim Miller is seventy-two years old. His professional record is 576-270. His first UFC bout was a TKO victory over 19th-century judoka Mitsuyo Maeda and was memorialized in daguerreotype, purchasable for twelve pence with proof of attendance. He fought at UFC 100, he fought at UFC 200, and he has vowed to fight at UFC 300, a concept for which the fanbase is rabid. This fight night takes place 91 days before UFC 300. The average concussion suspension is 90 days long. If Gabriel Benítez fucks this up for everyone, I will be impotently furious.
But, funnily enough, Gabriel's been around fucking forever too. "Moggly" is just a few months away from crossing a solid decade under the UFC's promotional banner--he got his start on The Ultimate Fighter Latin America Season 1 all the way back in 2014 (jesus christ). In that ten-year span, Jim Miller has fought in the UFC 26 times. Gabriel stands at exactly 13. Like most fighters, he had a high-paced 3-4 fights a year for the first half of his career, and like an awful lot of fighters and/or human beings, once he neared 30 years old, things started to fall apart. Between COVID, injuries and weight management problems, Gabriel Benítez has cancelled as many fights as he's participated in over the last five years. Even this fight is a rescheduling; it was supposed to happen last March. Benítez has always been an unpredictable fighter, sometimes coming in technical, measured and clean, sometimes wild and dangerous, and the long layoffs haven't helped. The last time we saw him he took Charlie Ontiveros apart--but that was almost a year and a half ago.
My prediction doesn't really matter here, does it? If you are a fan of this sport, can you bring yourself to pick against Jim Miller at this point in your life? Are you more invested in Gabriel Benítez having a good year than the undying soul of our sport? The world is dark and terrible. Allow yourself to believe and be hurt. JIM MILLER BY TKO.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Ricky Simón (20-4, #13) vs Mario Bautista (13-2, NR)
Poor Ricky Simón is coping with his second derailing. His first hyped run came to an end in 2019 after a briefly-unretired Urijah Faber knocked him out in forty seconds, but the bizarre nature of Faber's reappearance let most of the sport dismiss it (and his forgotten loss to Rob Font afterwards) as a fever dream. One five-fight win streak later, Ricky walked into 2023 as a top Bantamweight prospect and his title aspirations seemed more secure than ever. And then he fought Song Yadong. It's one thing when a hall of famer rolls out of his Capri Sun-themed coffin and sparks you with a right hand; it's another when you fight an established, higher-ranked contender and he dominates you. Song outstruck Simón nearly two to one, stuffed 78% of his takedowns, and knocked him out in the fifth round. No more title aspirations, no more contendership: Now you get to go fight the unranked men snapping at your heels.
Mario Bautista has been on his way up for the last two years, and a big part of that ascent comes from awfully good timing. He tapped out reliable divisional gatekeeper Brian Kelleher just three months after Kelleher's first submission loss in four years. He drew Benito Lopez one of the first prospects out of the Contender Series, after he'd spent three years on the shelf. Guido Cannetti made a huge splash in 2022 by putting together back-to-back upset wins for the first time in nine years with the UFC; Bautista was there to choke him right out of the company. Most famously, he struck gold this summer when Cody Garbrandt dropped out of their fight and was replaced by Da'Mon Blackshear, who'd made headlines with an amazing Twister submission victory just one week prior and was filling in on four days' notice. Say, how'd I feel about that at the time?
Da'Mon Blackshear just fought last weekend, and he won in the first round by way of one of the rarest submissions in the sport, the Twister, and hey, he only took a handful of strikes from a world-class athlete, so fuck it, why not take a fill-in fight on four days' notice one week later? It's great! The UFC will love you for it, and everyone will talk about what a badass you are. And all it costs is letting management know that you're more than happy to take no-notice, no-preparation fights for barely any pay, because hey, you're a warrior, and who ever went bust being a good company man for the UFC?
Blackshear lost a close decision. Mario Bautista is fighting for a top fifteen ranking. Da'Mon Blackshear is unbooked. Please know your worth.
RICKY SIMÓN BY DECISION. I think Mario Bautista is better than he gets credit for, but I think Ricky is, too, and given how much of Bautista's success comes from grappling, which is arguably where Ricky's at his best, I think he gets outworked here.
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Phil Hawes (12-5) vs Brunno Ferreira (10-1)
The man once named Megatron has fallen on hard times. Phil Hawes adopted "No Hype" as a copyright-friendly expression of how legitimate his skills are, but in 2024 it's become more of a descriptor for the state of his career. His face-blasting power and aggressive punching style made him a solid prospect back in 2021! In 2024 he's 1 for his last 4, all three of those losses were brutal knockouts, and the sole victory came against Deron Winn, who was, with all of the respect in the world to anyone who puts on the gloves, a 5'6" Middleweight. It's not that Hawes is by any means a bad fighter--it's that he's been getting thrown in with killers. He was giving Chris Curtis hell for four minutes of their fight, but twenty seconds is all Chris Curtis needs. Roman Dolidze should arguably a top five fighter. Ikram Aliskerov is on the fast track to contendership.
Brunno Ferreira was, too, right up until he very abruptly wasn't. "The Hulk" got his Contender Series contract in 2022 based on his capacity for very quickly, very powerfully punching people in the face until their face no longer resembled a face, and when he made his UFC debut as a fill-in fighter, met a man in Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues so durable he once fought with one of his arteries hanging out of his skull, and knocked him the fuck out in one round, the world paid attention. Unfortunately, sometimes, the bone bones for thee. This Summer Ferreira had to face a late replacement in the debuting, much-hyped Nursulton Ruziboev, and this time it was Ferreira's turn to get laid out, losing his undefeated streak after Ruziboev knocked him cold in just over a minute.
The phrase "this fight will not leave the first round" is one of the most cursed in combat sports, but it would be shocking if this made it past five minutes. As much as I like Phil Hawes and would personally like to see him get another bite at the apple, BRUNNO FERREIRA BY TKO feels likely. Hawes keeps getting hurt by his own aggression and his own faltering chin, and few people hit as hard as Ferreira does.
PRELIMS: DON'T FEED YOUR DOG SALSA
HEAVYWEIGHT: Andrei Arlovski (34-22 (2)) vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta (10-1)
I used up so many old-age jokes for Jim Miller and I was a fool. Andrei Arlovski is just part of the building, now. In three months, Andrei Arlovski's career will have lasted a quarter of a century. He has fought the best of the best. He has been a champion, a star, and a Universal Soldier. He has dined with kings and done battle with emperors. And now, with his forty-fifth birthday just a few weeks away, his career brings him to the doorstep of the Salsa Boy. Waldo Cortes-Acosta, for some inexplicable reason, had a bit of hype coming off his 2022 Contender Series victory. He's a former boxer! He's undefeated! He's one of the next big things! And then he almost got leg-kicked to death by Chase Sherman and lost his undefeated streak to Marcos Rogério de Lima one fight later, and suddenly, he was just another Heavyweight. But he got past fellow hype victim Łukasz Brzeski last Summer, and Andrei Arlovski is a popular veteran on a two-fight losing streak, and god damn it, if Salsa Boy can't put away a Pitbull that's more than doubly past its life expectancy, what good is he to Dana White?
Do you know how much I miss Chase Sherman? Do you realize everything went wrong after the UFC lost him? The last time we saw Chase Sherman: Brand new Heavyweight champion! Jon Jones promises he's going to be active again! Sergei Pavlovich murders everybody! And then they let Chase Sherman go, and now Tom Aspinall has to bother people on Twitter because the only fight the UFC will give him is against Alex Pereira. The wrong kid died. ANDREI ARLOVSKI BY DECISION because I just don't believe in Waldo.
WELTERWEIGHT: Matthew Semelsberger (11-6) vs Preston Parsons (10-4)
One of the greatest pleasures of combat sports is becoming overly, foolishly in the tank for a fighter for no reason you could explain if anyone really asked you to. It's like a duck imprinting on a parent: You watch a fighter and you know, through the demands of your soul, that you are irrationally invested in their future and it will interfere with every judgment you make of them. It has been almost two full years since I correctly predicted a Matthew Semelsberger fight, and that includes the one time I thought he was going to lose and he beat the stuffing out of Jake Matthews instead. I cannot judge the man fairly. I like his knockdowns, I like his style, and I will follow him as he descends into 50/50 record hell. Preston Parsons has been slightly less successful. He hopped into the UFC as a last-minute replacement back in 2021 and got annihilated by Daniel Rodriguez, he got his own late replacement victim by defeating Evan Elder the following year, and in 2023 he managed a respectably close but ultimately losing effort against Trevin Giles. Another year has passed, it is time for our annual Preston Parsons check-in, and we hope the alliterative wonder can do better this time.
Well, maybe you do. You know what the fuck I'm going to say. Preston's a solid wrestler with some power in his hands, but he's also got real awkward defense that earns him a lot of punches to the face, and Semelsberger has dropped goddamn near everyone he's shared the cage with--he just never manages to keep them down. Hopefully, he'll manage it here. MATTHEW SEMELSBERGER BY TKO. Semelsberger for champ in 2025.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Marcus McGhee (8-1) vs Gaston Bolaños (7-3)
Marcus "The Maniac" McGhee has had an unusually fortunate time in the UFC. He popped into the company as a three-days-notice fill-in against Journey Newson, one of the Bantamweight division's most continually struggling fighters, and successfully picked him off with a left hand and a rear naked choke in two rounds. McGhee was supposed to go on to a tougher matchup, but an injury gave him his own late replacement--JP Buys, one of the statistically least successful fighters in UFC history. McGhee knocked him out in two minutes. One year and one week ago, Marcus McGhee was fighting in a casino in front of a crowd of dozens; now he's 2-0 in the UFC. But he has unfinished business. Gaston Bolaños was the man McGhee was supposed to meet instead of Buys, and Bolaños wants to return the timeline to its intended course. His debut came last April against Aaron Phillips, and to recap exactly how odd a matchup it was:
A Bellator kickboxer with one fight in the last three years is making his UFC debut against a two-tenure UFC competitor we haven't seen since July of 2020.
The fight itself managed to be even fucking weirder. Missouri's officials were doing all sorts of crazy shit during the Holloway vs Allen card, chief among which was referee Nick Berens threatening Aaron Phillips with a standup while he had Gaston mounted and was actively trying to strangle him. Bolaños unequivocally lost one round and the third was extremely close; two of the three judges gave him a 30-27 sweep anyway. And then Gaston faded into the mist for the next nine straight months, where I hope he learned some takedown defense.
Bolaños is a much cleaner striker. He hits straighter, he's got better timing, and he's a pretty tough out. McGhee is meaner, and arguably a visibly more complete fighter. He's fast as hell and he's very good at capitalizing on his openings, and if Gaston comes out looking like he did agast Phillips, this almost certainly ends up with him on the floor. MARCUS MCGHEE BY SUBMISSION.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Farid Basharat (11-0) vs Taylor Lapilus (19-3)
Every week we get a fight that is oddly buried in the prelims for now theoretically notable it is, and let the records show that, for 2024, this is the first. Farid Basharat is the younger, smaller half of the undefeated Basharat brothers, he's 2-0 in the UFC, he just put forth the best performance of his career by shutting down the kicking time bomb that is Kleydson Rodrigues and choking him out in one round, he's remarkably technically clean and he could be fighting for a top fifteen berth without anyone complaining. Taylor Lapilus was an extremely promising 3-1 in the UFC back in 2016, his grappling was extremely impressive, and he had just scored a dominant victory over former ONE titlist Leandro Issa--and the company released him for reasons he still doesn't understand seven years later. The UFC knocked on his door again in 2022, less for his success and more because they were going to Paris to take advantage of Ciryl Gane, and Lapilus is one of the better French MMA fighters out there. It wound up taking an additional year and a second trip to France, but Lapilus got his ticket, dealt with a last-minute replacement, and handily defeated Caolán Loughran, the latest in the world's innumerable attempts to clone Conor McGregor.
So it's an incredibly promising prospect on a winning streak and an incredibly promising prospect who was inexplicably cut, and now they are here, fighting midway through the prelims on an Apex card, sharing air with Westin Wilson. Ask me anything about the UFC's trouble making stars. FARID BASHARAT BY DECISION.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Westin Wilson (16-8) vs Jean Silva (11-2)
Part of the reason it's so nice to see someone like Marcus McGhee succeed is, far more often, your regional-scene late replacements wind up more like Westin Wilson. Wilson got tapped as a fill-in for Khusein Askhabov against Joanderson Brito last July, and to recap exactly how that looked:
But Askhabov got injured, and the only person the UFC could find to fill the void was Westin Wilson. I have immense respect for anyone who fights. It's tough as shit and deeply underappreciated. But we also have to be realistic about strength of schedule and preparation, and objectively, Westin Wilson has spent the last two years fighting in can-crushing federations against guys with 9-19 records. Brief internet sensation Teruto Ishihara, who got cut from the UFC after losing three in a row--at bantamweight--knocked Wilson cold in one round less than a year ago.
Wilson's big and he's got talent, and it's always possible he wins and I am the world's biggest fool. But I do not believe in a world that just.
Was the world just? Not even remotely. Joanderson Brito knocked him out in three minutes. The final significant strike count was 22 to 4. Wilson's karate style was less Lyoto Machida and more Zane Frazier. Does it mean Wilson is a bad fighter? Of course not. Joanderson Brito is a bad motherfucker and there's no shame in getting knocked out by him. Does it mean the UFC is going to do him any favors and give him more favorable matchups? My friend, you are watching the wrong company. Jean Silva, who very impolitely has the same name as one of my favorite circa-2005 lightweights, is one of the newest Contender Series soldiers the UFC would like to put on the map. He's a scary finishing machine out of the same Fight Nerds camp that brought the UFC Caio Borralho, he's got a real dangerous combination of knockout power and an effective high-pressure game, and I have it on good authority that a karateka slew his parents and he has vowed revenge.
I would like to pick against Silva. For one, I would like something nice to happen to Westin Wilson, for two, Wilson's got a half-foot size advantage and that's going to make things real tricky, and for three, Silva's nickname is "Lord Assassin" so I reflexively want him to lose. But Wilson's already demonstrated trouble with pressure, and JEAN SILVA BY TKO feels almost academic.
LIGHTWEIGHT: Tom Nolan (6-0) vs Nikolas Motta (13-5 (1))
Rarely does a fight feel quite so much like a setup as this. Tom "Big Train" Nolan is, unmistakably, the kind of fighter the company would love to get behind: A fucking 6'3" Lightweight from Australia who's an undefeated 6-0 at just 23 years old and has four straight knockout victories, including the genuinely impressive, 83-second dusting of Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series that got Nolan his contract. Nikolas Motta is 5'9", 1-2 (1) in the UFC, got knocked the fuck out by Jim Miller and Manuel Torres, and should, with all respect, be out of the company already. His last fight in November was a one-sided loss to Trey Ogden--at least, it should have been. Two minutes before the fight ended, with Ogden winning almost every second of the fight, referee Mike Beltran screwed up and ruled that Motta had passed out in an arm triangle when he was, in fact, fully conscious. For some reason, despite the fight being nearly over, it was waved off as a No Contest instead of a Technical Decision, and that saved Motta from a loss and a 1-3 record.
And it earned him the chance to come here and fight a hyped knockout artist half a foot bigger than him (which is two half-foot differences in subsequent fights, and boy, that's weird) one fight away from curtain-jerking the prelims. Congratulations, Nikolas. TOM NOLAN BY TKO.
FLYWEIGHT: Felipe Bunes (13-6) vs Joshua Van (9-1)
And now, a long-belated debut. Felipe Bunes was supposed to fight in the UFC last June--he was actually the main event of the Legacy Fighting Alliance card that got Marcus McGhee scouted--but Bunes was scratched from his bout with Zhalgas Zhumagulov at the last minute for 'unnamed medical reasons.' Those 'unnamed medical reasons' turned out to be 'tested positive for drugs.' Which drugs? We'll never know! The UFC didn't say and Bunes declined to elaborate. Which, paradoxically, is fine. We only know it was a failed drug test because Bunes said so, and fighter privacy is important, and I hope for everyone else's sake it doesn't mean Bunes is secretly on ultrasteroids. What happened to Zhalgas? He took a replacement fight the following weekend against Joshua Van. Van was the Flyweight champion for Texas' Fury Fighting Championship, he had a quiet amount of internet hype, and, like Zhumagulov's last two opponents, Van won a split decision against him thanks to his takedown defense, his combination striking, and his ability to get a foot in his opponent's face really, really fast. Van stamped his place in the division by taking on Kevin Borjas in November, and after a shaky first round he ran a clinic for the back 2/3 of the fight, ultimately outstriking him more than 2:1 and winning an entirely uncontroversial decision.
It feels silly to say this will be great. It's Flyweight, it's almost always great. That's why it opens cards and goes completely unloved by its corporate masters. I'm leaning towards JOSHUA VAN BY DECISION but this could go either way.