SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 18 FROM THE END OF MEANING THAT IS THE UFC APEX
PRELIMS 11 AM PST / 2 PM EST | MAIN CARD 2 PM / 5 PM
It's always weird to go have a regular fight night the week after a card-of-the-year candidate. UFC 295 was fantastic! Great on paper, great in practice, near-total delivery of violent quality, multiple championship fights. Fantastic! Obviously, not every card can be that balls-out.
But boy, the fourth fight from the top last week was Benoît Saint-Denis vs Matt Frevola for a top fifteen berth in arguably the UFC's deepest division, and the fourth fight from the top this week is the UFC debut of Payton Talbott, the champion of Urijah Faber's A1 Combat, against Nick Aguirre and his 0-1 record.
Does that mean it's a bad night of fights? No, they can always be fun. Is it a whole lot harder to get preemptively excited for?
I dunno. How much do you like Mick Parkin?
MAIN EVENT: EIGHT LIMBS ENTER, SEVEN LIMBS LEAVE
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Brendan Allen (22-5, #10) vs Paul Craig (17-6-1, #13)
Ignore the division and the rankings, this is a battle to determine the true champion of making André Muniz miserable.
It's tempting to think of Brendan "All In" Allen as a 'journeyman makes good' story, but truthfully he was never really a journeyman, he just had some real, real bad timing regarding taking losses. Get through the Contender Series, rack up three wins (including a submission over Kevin Holland that's aged quite well), get knocked out by future champion Sean Strickland. Come back with two victories, get fucked up by Chris Curtis, a top fifteen Middleweight. People are paying close attention to him now that he's on his big winning streak, but truthfully, he's always been right on the cusp of a breakout. He just needed to ritualistically bathe in the blood of the dread demon Sam Alvey before the heavens would bless his conquest.
Because, boy, it's been pretty smooth fucking sailing since then. The only bad tape you can find on Allen over his last five fights is a pretty close encounter with Jacob Malkoun, and in fairness, Jacob Malkoun tends to make everyone look bad, himself included. He choked out Sam Alvey, he choked out Krzysztof Jotko, he choked out André Muniz in a surprise main event, he choked out Bruno Silva without even breaking a sweat. Suddenly--as one of the benefits of taking three fights a year, every year--Allen's 10-2 in the UFC and looking like a possible contender. His grappling is quick, canny and aggressive, his striking is threatening enough to keep his opponents from getting comfortable, which is half of what enables his submission offense in the first place, and while he can be taken out, you have to beat him insensible to get it done.
Paul "Bearjew" Craig's route here is slightly less impressive, but much, much funnier. Craig's spent his entire career at Light Heavyweight, and he WAS the journeyman people feel like Allen was, going 4-4 in his first three years with the company and getting beaten up an awful lot in his losses. But he built a legacy for himself as the greatest mixed martial arts hypnotist outside of the Diaz brothers. His trademark quickly became apparent: Getting hurt up, inexplicably convincing someone to follow him down into his guard in an attempt to finish him, and immediately just wrecking their shit with his bottom game. Sure, he'd get knocked out by Tyson Pedro, but #1 contender Magomed Ankalaev? Tapped him out. Sure, he'd go to a draw with 2019-era Shogun Rua, but future champion Jamahal Hill? Snapped his arm completely limp.
He even managed a four-fight winning streak that got him into the top ten! But then his mojo failed and he got beaten fairly handily by Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, and he did what every guy in his thirties does when he feels insecure about his place in life: He decided to try losing some weight. He dropped to Middleweight for the first time this past July, where he fought your buddy and mine André Muniz, and it was, generally-speaking, exactly what you'd expect. Paul Craig's always had some difficulties on the feet, and Muniz spent the first round repeatedly kicking him, jabbing him and keeping him at bay, and then the second round began, and Muniz, a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, decided to grapple at length with a 1920s pugilist and a couple minutes later Craig had him stuck in mount eating elbows until the referee jumped in to save him.
It's hilarious that we're here, having this top fifteen fight between two guys who are only top fifteen because they both ruined André Muniz's life. at the beginning of 2023 Muniz was 23-4 and had only lost once in a decade and had the scariest grappling in the division and had never been submitted in his career. Now he's fighting The Iron Turtle because he got grappled to death by the guy named after a Tarantino movie from a decade and a half ago right after he got grappled to death by the guy whose nickname is just his name if you pronounce it slightly different.
I like rooting for Paul Craig. I want to root for Paul Craig. For one, when he wins, it's usually very funny, and boy, the sport needs levity. For two, he's impossible to count out and refuses to give up even after sustaining ridiculous beatings, which is a terrible thing to have a reputation for because it means you, y'know, regularly take terrible beatings, but it's still a deeply admirable trait. And for three? I haven't forgotten Brendan Allen taking a proud stand for how weak and emasculated society has become for not endorsing the wisdom of whooping his four year-old daughter, and I don't really want to root for him ever again.
And I won't! But he's probably still going to win this fight. The big questions about Craig's weight cut, aside from his ability to simply make it, centered around how he'd adjust to the speed of the 185-pound division. And he...mostly didn't. Allen's faster, he hits straighter, and I cannot see him falling prey to the same mass hysteria that makes fighters throw themselves headfirst at Paul Craig's thighs. Would love to be wrong! But BRENDAN ALLEN BY TKO feels right.
CO-MAIN EVENT: DON'T YOU SEE, I USED TO BE THE NEW KID
WELTERWEIGHT: Jake Matthews (19-6) vs Michael Morales (15-0)
The UFC was really invested in Jake Matthews once. In ways that belie their normal parameters for investment, even. He's Australian, but he predates their big attempt at breaking the Australian scene. He was damn near a teenager when the UFC signed him, but he came in years before the Contender Series started trying to build Dana White an army of child soldiers. He wasn't a regional champion, he didn't have a long record, he wasn't a must-see TV fighter, he wasn't Instagram famous. He got knocked out of the first round of the Ultimate Fighter season that gave us Chad Laprise and the unfortunately departed Elias Theodorou.
But the UFC thought he was a young, solid prospect, and once upon a time, that was enough. Matthews has been kicking around the UFC for almost a decade, at this point. And they are only now, finally, tired of him. Matthews has had a score of tough opponents over the course of his career--Kevin Lee and Li Jingliang come to mind--but it wasn't until recently that the UFC pushed him into the 'fighting people we visibly want to push using your corpse' category of fighter. He bought himself one more shot at matchmaking's good graces after his picture-perfect destruction of Andre Fialho back in 2022, but he was right back to trading wins and losses once it was over.
So the subtlety is out the window. Congratulations, Jake, you're fighting the guy the UFC wants wearing a belt. Michael Morales came through the Contender Series in 2021, rolled right into the UFC and immediately resumed knocking motherfuckers out. The UFC had huge expectations for Morales right off the bat, and, funnily enough, those expectations kept getting kneecapped by poorly-timed injuries. Just one fight into his run they wanted him taking on noted tough motherfucker Ramiz Brahimaj, but thanks to a withdrawal he got Adam Fugitt. They booked up against Rinat goddamn Fakhretdinov, but Morales' own injury wound up seeing him against Max Griffin instead.
Max Griffin was still more than enough of a test, though. After a career of ragdolling his opponents at will and dropping them behind sniping crosses and looping hooks, Max Griffin gave Morales actual trouble. His power striking and his wrestling offense didn't stop Morales, but they did cost him a round and leave him scrambling to adjust. Which he did--which is, frankly, a lot more impressive than if he'd simply sockpuppeted Griffin and beaten him without a second thought. Having the physical tools to destroy people is impressive; having the fight IQ to change your gameplan on the fly and win difficult fights is what actually makes champions.
The UFC, however, is still pumping the brakes just a touch. Matthews is tough and by no means an easy out for anyone, but make no mistake: The company that was willing to book Morales against Fakhretdinov is making a conscious choice to slow his ascension just a touch by giving him Jake Matthews. Morales is bigger, he's much rangier, he's a stronger, faster wrestler, and he's got an awful lot more stopping power than Jake has shown off. MICHAEL MORALES BY TKO and I don't think it'll be pretty.
MAIN CARD: FURIOUSLY REFRESHING WIKIPEDIA
LIGHTWEIGHT: Jordan Leavitt (11-2) vs Chase Hooper (12-3-1)
How exactly do you move on with your life after you get successfully used for marketing purposes? Jordan Leavitt built himself a niche in the UFC after ending Matt Wiman's career comeback with a disgusting slam knockout and twerking about narrowly beating Trey Ogden, but when push came to shove, the UFC knew the real money lay in the wide world of British pageboys. In another, better reality, Jordan Leavitt stopped the Paddy Pimblett train and we are all the better for it. In this reality, Pimblett choked Leavitt out in two rounds and honestly, if you're the UFC, what do you do with him after that? You already got what you wanted out of Jordan Leavitt and you clearly don't have any big plans for his future, so what's next?
Why, it's going down the list of other people you want to push, of course. First it was Contender Series winner Victor Martinez, who Leavitt overwhelmed, and now it's Chase "The Dream" Hooper. Chase is one of the youngest-ever UFC talents, having been signed at 19 on the back of his undefeated streak down in the regional circuit, and like so many young talents throughout history--we still miss you, Jordan Mein--the UFC's caliber of competition has proven a little much. Hooper's spent his entire four-year UFC career trading wins back and forth, over and over. None were as definitive or painful as the first-round knockout battering Steve Garcia gave him last October, though. This is the problem with growing up as a fighter in the middle of the UFC: The holes in your game will be exploited by angry people with very large hands.
On paper, this is a good fight for Chase. His grappling has always been his strength and Paddy laid a pretty clear blueprint for using solid wrestling and a size advantage to bully Leavitt down, and while Leavitt may have the tighter striking, he's at a significant range disadvantage if he wants to put punches on Hooper's jaw. But: Hooper signed a contract in blood that he must lose every alternating fight, and the bill is due. So JORDAN LEAVITT BY TKO.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Payton Talbott (6-0) vs Nick Aguirre (7-1)
Boy, it feels sort of hollow to go through this after I already summarized it in one line in the intro. Here's the thing: I don't think having debuting prospects on main cards is bad! It's actually a good, smart idea to put a little attention behind new fighters to get the fans interested in them. Solid, well-intentioned marketing. It's just the frequency with which the only people who get that treatment are Contender Series winners that makes it particularly grating. Hey: Guess where Payton Talbott came from! Sure, he was knocking out people in Urijah Faber's personal fighting organization with flying knees and shit, but he didn't truly exist until he beat two-time Contender Series loser Reyes Cortez, and now it's time for the UFC, baby.
And that brings us to the other side of the marketing coin. Well-intentioned marketing feels a lot worse when you're blatantly setting someone up to lose! Nick Aguirre is in the UFC because he agreed to fight Dan Argueta on 72 hours' notice. That's it. That's the contract. It's not that Aguirre isn't a good fighter. He's quick and he's scrappy and he proved he's very tough to finish. But he also got beat up 93-15 and elbowed into dust on the ground. He's not on the main card because the UFC has a secret vested interest in the professional future of Nick Aguirre. He's here because he got dominated by a guy who's 1-2 (1) in the UFC and Payton Talbott is a fun, young prospect who does flying knees and can probably give the UFC a bunch of good fights for minimum wage.
PAYTON TALBOTT BY TKO. Give the people what they want, I guess.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Amanda Ribas (11-4, #11) vs Luana Pinheiro (11-1, #9)
Boy, Amanda Ribas has been around the top ranks for awhile, now. Enough so, in fact, that when the UFC booked her into a fight with Maycee Barber this past June, I very confidently said this:
Maycee's best performances come from smothering people with her forward-pressure striking and its ultimate termination in clinch control; Ribas is a pretty strong clinch grappler, is real good at getting out of the goddamn way of striking traffic, and carries enough power in her jabs to disrupt Barber's typical flow. Ribas's biggest threat here is, in all likelihood, the judges.
And, as is so common when I am confident, I was hilariously wrong. Maycee Barber turned in the best performance of her career and battered Ribas to a second-round knockout, and, in doing so, defined an unfortunate trend. For how great Ribas can be--fast, mobile, remarkably quick to scramble into good positions--she struggles with bigger, stronger, harder-hitting women. Polyana Viana dropped her back in Brazil, Marina Rodriguez punched her out in 2021, and Maycee held her down and pounded her out.
Luana Pinheiro, historically, doesn't quite fit into that mold. To be honest, her UFC tenure as a whole has been pretty bizarre. She fought Randa Markos in a one-round battle that included fence grabs, multiple eye pokes and Pinheiro winning by disqualification after eating a grounded upkick, she beat Sam Hughes in a fight that saw her visibly gassed after two rounds, and in her last outing this past April she managed to pass the initiation test every top ten Women's Strawweight must one day face: Winning a split decision against Michelle Waterson-Gomez that you probably should have lost. She got outstruck and outgrappled by the world's favorite Atomweight in search of a weight class, but sometimes that doesn't matter.
In other words: My hopes for Luana do not loom large, here. She's a solid fighter with some particularly underrated kicks, but historically, she has trouble holding position, she has trouble with her gas tank and she has trouble with people who can sting her on their feet, and Ribas fills all three of those criteria. AMANDA RIBAS BY DECISION.
WELTERWEIGHT: Uroš Medić (9-1) vs Myktybek Orolbai (11-1-1)
Uroš Medić is having a tough time getting fights to stick. Medić is nearing his third year in the UFC, but half his fights have been either late replacement situations or late additions to cards altogether. He's made the most of it, though: Outside of a loss to Jalin Turner in his second fight he's continued his trend of not just persistently winning, but violently stopping everyone he faces in style. A flying knee over Aalon Cruz, a three-knockdown victory over Omar Morales by spamming angry left hands, even a spinning backfist over Matt Semelsberger; his variety of strikes has been as impressive as his success, and the UFC was really looking forward to a barnburner between him and Jonny "The Sluggernaut" Parsons tonight.
And it is not happening! For as-yet undisclosed reasons, Parsons is out, and in his place is the newly-signed week-of fight replacement Myktbek Orolbai. Which, uh--sure. Why not. It more or less absolves me of responsibility, because if you've read any of these before, you can probably recite 3/4 of what I'm about to say by inference alone. Regional champion back east, this time in Kyrgyzstan! Grappling credentials in his past, but prefers to strike and land giant punches! Spent most of his career fighting guys who are 10-7 and 0-0 and othersuch examples that look numerically devastating! Got a little bit of internet fame for a killer uppercut knockout over the 18-14 Adam Duritz impersonator Hayward Charles in LFA just three weeks ago!
After watching a bunch of tape: He seems fine. He seems like the kind of fighter who will hang around in the UFC for several years on the prelims. He does not seem like the kind of fighter who has yet dealt with being tested by significantly competitive strikers and I'm very curious to see what happens if that changes. For now, UROŠ MEDIĆ BY TKO.
PRELIMS: WHAT'S A MOTTA WITH YOU
FEATHERWEIGHT: Jonathan Pearce (14-4) vs Joanderson Brito (15-3-1)
The UFC just wants to break my heart, man. I'm a big Joanderson Brito fan. Joanderson fought Bill Algeo on the very first card I did a writeup for. We are interconnected, and it is written in fire on the shackles binding me that I cannot be freed from my prison of words until Joanderson Brito holds a world championship. And he could! He hits like a truck, he's extremely fast, and he's awfully hard to stop. But he's also a 5'8" Featherweight in a division that keeps getting bigger, and Bill Algeo made an awfully clear case for how a larger, better wrestler could use a size and strength discrepancy against him. Which is where Jonathan Pearce comes in. "JSP" is six feet tall, he's been wrestling since he was a child, he's taken down every single person in the UFC he's ever attempted a takedown on--multiple times--and he gets just about a full round of control time in every goddamn fight he has. He's only lost once in the UFC and it was against Joe Lauzon, which is a) hilarious and b) just somehow perfect for the kind of shit Joe Lauzon has done in his career, but that was also four years ago. In the time since, Pearce has tightened up his game enough to not only avoid that kind of trouble, but wrestle the crap out of Darren Elkins, which is aggressively difficult.
I would find it deeply personally ingratiating if Brito blasted Pearce out of the fight in thirty seconds. I think JONATHAN PEARCE BY DECISION is much more likely.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Chad Anheliger (12-6) vs Jose Johnson (15-8)
There are some fights I look forward to because they are technically thrilling or divisionally interesting, and there are some fights I look forward to because of their potential for chaos. This is a chaos fight. Chad Anheliger is a 50/50 win/loss fighter with two UFC fights: A battle with Jesse Strader, who despite going 0-2 in the UFC and being released immediately was winning right up until he got knocked silly with 90 seconds left to a decision, and a back-and-forth with Alatengheili, himself more of a UFC journeyman, who completely shut him out. Jose Johnson, who I still remember primarily because the nickname "Lobo Solitario" gives me Airheads flashbacks, is a 50/50 win/loss fighter who made his way through the Contender Series in the summer of 2022, spent an entire year on the shelf thanks to medical issues, finally made his debut just this past August as a late replacement against Da'Mon Blackshear, and for his efforts he was submitted in one round and made history as just the third fighter in UFC history to be submitted via Twister.
So it's two guys who have a lot of trouble winning in the UFC, like to get real jumpy and go all-out for striking finishes, and, statistically-speaking, get hurt about as often as they find success. Also, there's a fucking half-foot height and reach difference between them. So let's just go with JOSE JOHNSON BY TKO and watch something silly happen.
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Christian Leroy Duncan (8-1) vs Denis Tiuliulin (11-8)
We're still thick in the weird fight woods, here. Christian Leroy Duncan came into the UFC as an undefeated Cage Warriors champion with an awful lot of hype for being an ostensibly well-rounded fighter who reminded some folks of Georges St-Pierre, but British imports are a dangerous business. Sometimes it turns out Americans love the Gallagher brothers and sometimes Americans decide Robbie Williams is just a smugness bridge too far even for them. Duncan won his debut when Duško Todorović did that fun trick where your knee spontaneously separates in two minutes into a fight, and then Duncan got not just outstruck but outwrestled by Armen Petrosyan, a kickboxer with 0 credited takedowns in the rest of his UFC career. This was supposed to be an equally weird fight against the kickboxer-turned-MMA rookie César Almeida, but Almeida had to go to the damn hospital, so hey: It's Denis Tiuliulin, which is no less weird. Tiuliulin got into the UFC as a late replacement in early 2022, and it aggressively has not gone well for him. His storm-into-clinch-range style has gotten him quickly stopped in three of his four fights, and the only exception came against Jamie Pickett, who is, respectfully, a 2-6 fighter the UFC has mostly used as a jobber. From a strictly statistical perspective, Tiuliulin's striking accuracy is below average, his striking defense is below average, and he's one of the rare fighters with a truly impressive 0% takedown accuracy rating.
So if this isn't CHRISTIAN LEROY DUNCAN BY SUBMISSION or at least a solid ground-and-pound stoppage, it's probably time to pull the ripcord on this experiment.
HEAVYWEIGHT: Mick Parkin (7-0) vs Caio Machado (8-1-1)
I spend a lot of my life writing about regional championships, so I want to use this fight to hammer home how they are not necessarily created equal. Mick Parkin won his first heavyweight championship in his third professional fight. His opponents, at the time, added up to a professional record of 5-30. By the time Parkin made it onto the Contender Series, he had a grand total of zero fights against people with winning records. His Contender Series opponent? A 5-0 guy who'd only had one fight with a non-rookie in his life and thought comboing spinning elbows into other, separate spinning elbows was good striking. And his UFC debut? A worst-fight-of-the-night contender against a barely-mobile Jamal Pogues who just sort of sat there while Parkin jabbed him for three rounds. But don't worry, that's all going to change now, because he's fighting Caio Machado! How did Caio Machado win HIS regional heavyweight championship, you ask? Why, by beating the 11-14 Lee Mein, of course. And who did he then proceed to defend it against? Why, the 11-15 Lee Mein, of course. Who did Machado beat to get here? Poland's own Kevin Szaflarski, who put up such a tremendous fight that he got outstruck 156-18. On the flipside of that: Caio Machado outstruck a guy 156-18 and never actually came close to finishing the fight.
So we've got two heavyweights, both of whom the UFC swears are the hot new prospects of the division, and both had belts, and neither fought anyone good to get them, and they have the incredible heavyweight superpower of being able to land hundreds of strikes without ever being at risk of knocking out their opponents. Heavyweight: It's just the goddamn worst. MICK PARKIN BY DECISION, I guess.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Lucas Alexander (8-3) vs Jeka Saragih (13-3)
This is our make-up patchwork fight for the night. Lucas "The Lion" Alexander, who got choked out by fellow preliminary contestant Joanderson Brito but beat up Steven "Ocho" Peterson who is most famous for beating main-card fighter Chase Hooper because the natural shape of mixed martial arts is a Lambert quadrilateral, was supposed to meet the similarly-embattled David Onama two weeks ago. A late injury scratched Onama and forced Alexander back into limbo. Fortunately, Jeka "Si Tendangan Maut" Saragih--it's 'The Deadly Kick,' for the record--is here. Jeka made it to the finals of last year's Road to UFC tournament, but a wrestling-based battering by Anshul Jubli kept him from taking the whole thing home. His performance, his regional popularity and his striking-centric style was still more than enough for the UFC, so they booked him against Jesse Butler, most famous for getting knocked out in twenty seconds by Jim Miller and only being prevented from fighting again two months later when the Nevada State Athletic Commission asked the UFC what the fuck they were doing. But Butler's hurt, and Alexander needs a dance partner, and here we are.
And it should be a pretty fun scrap. Both guys are big standup fans, both like to get occasionally wild with their technique when they think they can get away with it, and both are just the right kind of statistically hittable to make the fight a potential coinflip. I'm leaning towards LUCAS ALEXANDER BY DECISION but it should be fun while it lasts.
WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT: Lucie Pudilová (14-8) vs Ailin Perez (8-2)
The last time we saw Lucie, I said this.
Lucie is on her second UFC tenure, having been released in 2020 after four consecutive losses and brought back just last year, but she seems stuck in that unfortunate middlespace where she's too good for the regional scene but struggles against international competition. Her success is tied solely to her ability to effectively ground and grapple her opponents, but her method of getting there is the tried and true official takedown of women's MMA, the good ol' harai goshi headlock-and-throw-for-dear-life technique. Striking gets her in trouble, failed takedowns get her in trouble, and generally speaking, fighting people with decent records gets her in trouble.
It wound up all being true again, but only in the most irritating ways possible. Lucie ran a grappling clinic on Joselyne Edwards, working her over with ground and pound and controlling her for 2/3 of the fight, and she lost a split decision anyway, because the collective backlash against grappling is just entirely out of control. The UFC, in turn, is sending her in against Ailin Perez. Just to be clear, the UFC has tried to book five women against Ailin now, and they were:
Stephanie Egger, coming off a controversial one-minute submission loss
Zarah Fairn, an 0-4 fighter, but medical issues forced that to become
Hailey Cowan, a Contender Series rookie with a ton of hype, but she fell ill, so instead we got,
Ashlee Evans-Smith, a 3-6 fighter coming off a three-year hiatus
And now, Lucie Pudilová. 3-6 in the UFC, last good win was in 2017. The implications are very clear. The UFC is big on Ailin and they really, really want to build her up with some softballs.
So anyway, LUCIE PUDILOVÁ BY SUBMISSION. Ailin got rolled by Stephanie Egger, Lucie's best strengths are on the floor, and Ailin's intentions as a stylist are so clear that since her last appearance she's changed her nickname from "Fiona" to "Nurmagomedov." I'm envisioning sweeps and subs.
LIGHTWEIGHT: Nikolas Motta (13-5) vs Trey Ogden (16-6)
Speaking of people who got knocked out by Jim Miller, we have Nikolas Motta. This might actually be our pink slip fight of the night: Both guys are 1-2 in the company, neither is quite what the UFC is looking for, and one of them has only managed three fights in three years with the company, which is a pain in their ass. Motta got his Contender contract in 2020, spent the next 14 months on the shelf, got blown out of the water by Jim Miller and has fought once per seven months thereafter, first a knockout over the short-lived Cameron VanCamp, and second, this past June, a two-minute loss to the newer, more fun Contender Series winner, Manuel Torres. Trey "Samurai Ghost" Ogden popped into the company as a late replacement fill-in against Jordan Leavitt, damn near won a split decision, and then upset the apple cart by dominating--once again--a big favored Contender Series competitor in Daniel Zellhuber. He was then fed to another, different Contender Series winner in Ignacio Bahamondes, and god, that's fucking four references to the Contender Series in the background for a single fight between two people. This is where we are now, man. It's just the Contender Series all the way down. We're running out of space for anything else.
TREY OGDEN BY DECISION. I need to go hug my dog.
FLYWEIGHT: Charles Johnson (13-5) vs Rafael Estevam (11-0)
This may be the end of the line for Charles Johnson. "InnerG" hasn't had a bad UFC run by any means; he's 2-3, but unlike a lot of fighters those 3 were Muhammad Mokaev, for whom Johnson is the one fighter he couldn't finish, Ode Osbourne, who is just violently hot and cold, and Cody Durden who, as much as I find myself disliking him, is a hell of a fighter. Johnson's smart, he's defensively sound, no one's been able to finish him yet, and when he gets the chance he's proven to have some remarkably violent ground-and-pound. But he just can't quite crack the top fifteen, and in a company as harsh on Flyweight talent as the UFC, coming into a fight on a two-fight losing streak when you're already seen as a divisional gatekeeper is a tough spot to be in. Particularly when they're putting you up against--you know where this fucking sentence is going, don't act like you don't--their latest Contender Series winner. Rafael Estevam is a Shooto Brasil champion who's never lost a fight and savaged all of his opponents on the ground, including just beating the stuffing out of João Elias to win his contract, and that's an actual accomplishment, because Elias is a tough dude with some hellacious grappling himself.
So this is a the-floor-is-lava fight for Johnson. Jab, kick, move. Being on the ground with Estevam is an extremely dangerous concept. Unfortunately, Charles Johnson gets taken down an awful, awful lot. RAFAEL ESTEVAM BY SUBMISSION.