CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 27: AN EQUAL AND POSITIVE INACTION

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Hill

PRELIMS 4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST VIA ESPN+ | MAIN CARD 7:00 PM PST/10:00 PM EST VIA ESPN+

Did you know there was a season of The Ultimate Fighter happening? Did you know that it was over? Are you just here to hope this is the end of Sam Alvey in the UFC? We're all welcome here, my friend.

MAIN EVENT: SOMEHOW, A TOP TEN MATCH

LIGHT-HEAVYWEIGHT: Thiago Santos (22-10, #6) vs Jamahal Hill (10-1 (1), #10)

I feel like this might be preemptively disappointing. There are typically interesting stories or deep stylistic issues to delve into in UFC main events, but this one's about as direct and bluntly obvious as they get.

If you've been following these writeups you've already heard me sing the ballad of Thiago Santos, but to summarize: "Marreta" came in through The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 2, a single-elimination tournament where he defied the odds by getting eliminated twice, joined the middleweight division and established himself as a middle-of-the-pack fighter no one took much notice of, became part of the wave of middleweights who decided to stop cutting weight and head to light-heavyweight instead and, in doing so, immediately became one of the best in the world because light-heavyweight is a hilarious division.

At middleweight, Santos went on two separate four-fight win streaks and both times made it only as far as the fringe top ten before getting rejected by solid, well-rounded fighters. At light-heavyweight, he went on a three-fight winning streak that included fighters like Eryk "I Played Football" Anders and Jimi "Slapping Volkan Oezdemir Backstage For Some Reason" Manuwa, neither of whom would be in the division much longer. His powerful, vicious striking, in particular his kicks and elbows, made him a talent; the desperate need to find warm bodies for a newly-returned, post-crisis Jon Jones made him a contender. It was the most important fight of Thiago's career, and it was also the fight that, figuratively and literally, broke him.

He got surprisingly close to unseating Jones in a split decision--in hindsight, kind of a sign of Jones' decline--but he also tore basically every muscle in his knees. It would be a year and a half before he returned, and he's looked severely diminished in every subsequent appearance. He's hesitant to engage, he's gunshy about return fire, he's 1 for his last 5 and that victory was an unconscionably bad main event berth with Johnny Walker in which Santos landed an average of 8 strikes per round, and was saved only by Johnny Walker, somehow, having an even worse night. Three years ago Thiago Santos was fighting the best fighter on the planet and now he's looked at as damaged goods who should seriously consider retirement.

Jamahal Hill, by contrast, is on his somewhat belated way up. The light-heavyweight champion of the surprisingly long-lived Michigan regional Knockout Promotions, Hill was one of the brighter stars of the Contender Series, an undefeated 6'4" power striker with shockingly good instincts for when to throw power shots and, unlike many of his long-limbed peers, the ability to keep people at the edge of his reach when he saw fit. Within six months of his appearance he had his first UFC victory and everything thereafter was great.

This is, of course, a lie. In actuality he beat the shit out of Klidson Abreu and then got derailed by the shittiest part of our sport's drug enforcement policies after testing positive for that most vicious and unfair of performance-enhancing drugs, marijuana, and had to miss half a year. He bounced back, but in 2021 took the first actual loss of his career when, like such an inexplicably large number of his peers, he decided to engage Paul "Bearjew" Craig in grappling and promptly got his arm hideously, thoroughly dislocated, denying him his nearly-earned top ten berth and putting him back on the shelf.

A half-year later he was back again, and today he's back to his winning ways: Two fights, two first-round knockouts, including a hilarious ragdolling of Johnny Walker, whose fall from grace has been truly incredible to behold. It took two years longer than he intended, but Hill got his spot in the top ten. He's continued to look excellent doing it, too; his only real weaknesses have come from fighters like Darko Stošić and the aforementioned Paul Craig who were able to control him on the ground. That's a real concern, too: Fighters like Glover Teixeira and Magomaed Ankalaev and Anthony Smith and Dominick Reyes and even the still-entirely-present Paul Craig could absolutely present further dangerous tests of Hill's grappling defense.

Conveniently, he's fighting Thiago Santos. Thiago Santos has been in the UFC for the majority of his career; leading up to this bout, he's made 23 UFC appearances. He's completed a grand total of eight takedowns in that span, for an average of .3 takedowns per fight. Fun fact: Three of those were against Kevin Holland, who is currently a welterweight. (If you take him out, it becomes 0.2 takedowns per fight.)

The UFC is not stupid. They see money in Jamahal Hill, and quite frankly, they're correct to do so. He's marketable and eminently watchable. Thiago Santos was too, at one point, but that hasn't been the case for years. In 2022, Thiago Santos is losing consistently to the top ten and going on 39. He's in prime position for the UFC to chew him up as a stepping stone for marketable young talent that they would really rather not fight anyone who is likely to come out shooting doubles.

The funny part is Hill, on paper, isn't a terrible matchup for Santos. He's gunshy on the approach but he's still shown a capacity for violent, powerful counters, and Hill's style sees him regularly charging forward and trusting his hands to make it work. It's not out of the question for Thiago Santos to pull the upset here by using Hill's aggression against him. But in practice, he's shopworn, he's been fighting scared, and he's giving up reach, power and confidence. It's been a long time since Santos was knocked out, but all good things must come to an end. Jamahal Hill by KO.

CO-MAIN EVENT: VIOLENCE REHAB

WELTERWEIGHT: Vicente Luque (21-8-1, #6) vs Geoff Neal (14-4, #13)

This is the power of Belal Muhammad. One fight ago, people were discussing how Vicente Luque could be next for a title shot. Now, he is fighting to stay in the fringe top fifteen. Don't ever force yourself to Remember The Name. It never ends well.

Vicente Luque is a violence elemental. The UFC's "most finishes" record column is made of people with tenures so long they can practically drink; Charles Oliveira, Jim Miller, Donald Cerrone, Anderson Silva. Derrick Lewis, quite possibly the most prolific knockout artist in heavyweight history, is in sixth place with 13 knockouts, a record that took him 25 UFC fights to achieve. He's tied with Vicente Luque. He did it in 18. At welterweight. He is, in fact, the only person on that list with less than 20 fights in the company.

I cannot begin to express to you how statistically implausible that is. Vicente Luque has made an entire career out of fighting some of the best people in the world and violently breaking their faces on a near-universal basis. He hits like a truck, he can switch quickly between avenues of assault, he has some of the best finishing instincts in the sport, and as an additional bonus he's a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with four UFC wins by D'arce and a fifth by its sexier cousin the anaconda choke. He's really, really good. And--he's not the best. As with so many incredible prospects, he hasn't been able to get to the top of the mountain. First it was getting outfought by Leon Edwards, then he fell victim to the striking of Stephen Thompson, and his most recent streak came to an end this past April at the wrestle-hands of Belal Muhammad. He's got all the tools, but against the top of the top, he just can't put it together.

Geoff Neal--whose nickname is "Handz of Steel" because when you spell it with a Z it means the USDA doesn't have to approve it--is in a much more experimental position. Neal was only on the b-side of the UFC's radar when he was brought onto the then-nascent Contender Series as a last-minute injury replacement for Gabriel "Zangief" Checco, who never made it back and went on to the great heights of losing to Rashad Evans in 2022. Neal, by contrast, knocked out Chase Waldon so hard it sent Waldon into retirement and Neal into the UFC on the back of his corpse. Over the next two years, Geoff Neal went on a five-fight win streak with all but one of those victories coming by violent, abrupt stoppages, including the biggest win of his career, a headkick knockout of scumbag fan favorite Mike Perry. After being considered a second-string fallback, Geoff Neal was in the top ten.

And then he wasn't. First it was Stephen Thompson doing what Stephen Thompson does and serving up a 50-45 shutout over a rising prospect, then it was Neil Magny doing what Neil Magny does and just jabbing the shit out of somebody. Neal battled his way back into the victory column with a win over the similarly struggling Santiago Ponzinibbio last December, but it was a narrow, contentious split decision that could have fairly easily gone the other way. Neal has had an exceedingly tough run over the last three years, to the point that the audience has largely forgotten why he was in the top ten in the first place. He's fighting to remind them.

This is an exceedingly interesting fight. It's tempting to sum it up as an aggressive brawler in Vicente Luque vs a technically sound striker in Geoff Neal, but that's a woefully reductive read. Luque's danger isn't blind aggression, it's the patience he exhibits before he springs into action. It is entirely likely, however, that Luque's going to be leading the dance and Neal is going to be looking to jab, sling kicks and dance away. It wouldn't surprise me to see Luque mix in takedown attempts just to force Neal's hands down, but I wouldn't expect a lot of commitment to getting him on the ground.

At the end of the day, though, I think it's Luque. Geoff Neal is very good, but his best work comes against less seasoned, more easily rattled strikers. Vicente Luque is exceedingly hard to rattle and very, very good at closing the distance and forcing opponents into trading his way, as long as you're not a karate prodigy or a very, very good wrestler. Geoff Neal has not exhibited either. Vicente Luque by decision, though, as I'm not sure Neal will stay in the pocket long enough to get taken out.

MAIN CARD: MERCIFULLY FREE OF SAM ALVEY

HEAVYWEIGHT: Zac Pauga (5-0) vs Mohammed Usman (7-2)

That's right, baby: It's The Ultimate Fighter Finale time and we're starting with the heavyweights, which is to say a guy who fights at light-heavyweight and Kamaru Usman's younger brother.

Representing Team Julianna Peña, we have Zac "The Ripper" Pauga. Pauga is...not a heavyweight. He is, in fact, the second-shortest heavyweight in the season and had spent his entire professional career at 205 up until TUF came calling. Up until the show he was best known for fighting in Cage Warriors' California expansion events and beating the crap out of several overmatched men, which is actually pretty impressive when you consider it was his fourth and fifth professional fights and they were 5-2 and 12-5 respectively. Pauga, like so many heavyweights-who-aren't-heavyweights before him, succeeds largely by being actually good at some aspects of fighting. He's mobile, he's very aware of his range, and he's surprisingly good both at slinging stunning punches into short, unexpected openings and dropping down for quick doubles. He's not good at KEEPING people on the ground, unfortunately, but it makes his opponents stay on their toes, I suppose.

In the other corner, also representing Julianna Peña because Nunes' coaching didn't work out so well, we have Mohammed Usman. Mohammed is Kamaru Usman's younger but bigger brother, he's actually been fighting since 2017, and his success has, unfortunately, been a bit sparing. He's a big, solid dude, but unfortunately, his standout fighting ability is being a big, solid dude. His striking and wrestling aren't great. He likes to work behind leg kicks and jabs, but neither is enormously fast or damaging and he often keeps a low enough pace that it sways judges against him--which is why Dana White already dislikes him, having gotten publicly mad about the split decision that sent Usman to the TUF finals. He's good at sudden flurries of activity, but his corner has also had to rein him in several times to keep him from getting burnt out.

Look: The future of the heavyweight division will not be found here. Zac Pauga will be back at 205 in an eyeblink and Mohammed Usman is already going on 35 while getting beaten soundly and easily by the Brandon Sayleses of the world. THis is a wheel-spinning contest to see who gets a TUF trophy.

And on one hand, it's one of Usman's best possible matchups. His best advantages are his strength and physicality and he's drawn one of the smallest guys on the show; not only could he manhandle Pauga if he pins him to the cage, Pauga's going to be throwing leather back at a larger, stronger man who's taken punches from larger, stronger men. Add in Pauga's trouble dealing with being on the bottom in ground situations and this is a dangerous, dangerous matchup for him.

So, anyway, Zac Pauga wins by TKO. I just don't believe in Mohammed Usman. I'm sorry. He's slow and hittable and Pauga is particularly good at sticking his fist into peoples' faces for three rounds. I think Usman tires out from having to muscle Zac around and gets stopped.

WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT: Juliana Miller (2-1) vs Brogan Walker-Sanchez (7-2)

This is the Women's Flyweight tournament final. The best way I can explain how much people did not care about this season: The Wikipedia entry has an episode guide that started at seven points long, dropped to one single point by the third episode and never updated again. Which future women's stars came out of that fireworks factory?

Representing Julianna Peña, we have "Killer" Juliana Miller. Miller's one of the younger fighters on the show at 26 and her style can be best described as "please, please grapple with me." She's the kind of jiu-jitsu specialist all of the short, stubby grapplers like me held a quiet envy/loathing complex for in the darkest parts of our hearts: Long, wiry spider-limbed demons who dive on chokes on a moment's notice and can get their hooks in from eighteen feet away. The positives: She's good at it and commits intensely hard to her attempts. The negatives: She commits so hard that she will sometimes throw herself headfirst into danger and get floored.

Brogan Walker-Sanchez, the last Team Nunes representative left standing, is considerably more seasoned, but also has a lot more mileage and a lot more tape. She tips closer to Muay Thai as a specialty and did in fact run into some trouble against superior grapplers in her TUF fights, but was also able to punch them both in the face enough to get the judges on her side. She's got surprisingly solid combinations and power enough to stagger, but she's not much of a finisher; she likes to hurt people and dump them with takedowns from the clinch.

Conventionally, Brogan is more well-rounded and should be able to keep Miller at bay, but I'm taking Juliana Miller by submission. Brogan's desire to engage in the clinch plays into Miller's strengths, and as she gets tired, Miller's size advantage is going to become less and less pleasant to deal with. Given enough time, Miller's going to wind up snatching a choke.

HEAVYWEIGHT: Augusto Sakai (15-4-1, #14) vs Sergey Spivak (14-3)

Alas, the fallen prospect. Augusto Sakai was a fairly promising heavyweight at one point, a 14-1-1 striker with surprisingly fluid hands for the division who looked like a sure top ten contender. And then he, uh, actually fought the top ten. Alistair Overeem ended his streak by taking him to school on the ground, and then Jairzinho Rozenstruik took him out on the feet in one round, and then Tai Tuivasa outbrawled him and knocked him cold. Suddenly, Augusto Sakai has dropped three in a row; suddenly Augusto Sakai really, really needs a win.

And that's when the hounds begin to snap at your heels. Sergey Spivak, much more a ground technician, hasn't been fortunate enough to have a streak, having been repeatedly beaten down between victories by the Walt Harrises and Tom Aspinalls of the world. Inbetween them, though, he's shown off some extremely impressive ground skills: He's the last man to beat the aforementioned Tai Tuivasa, currently #3 in the world, and even more impressively, he intentionally went to the ground with Aleksei Oleinik and lived to tell the tale. He's strong as hell, he's dogged in pursuing his attacks, and most importantly, he beat the fucking shit out of Greg Hardy and earned my undying love forever.

I believed in Augusto Sakai as a thing once, but this is a bad turn for him. Spivak is too strong to keep from forcing him down and too solid a grappler not to be dangerous once he gets there. Sergey Spivak gets a submission.

WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT: Ariane Lipski (14-7) vs Priscila Cachoeira (11-4)

This could actually be fun. It's a fight between people nicknamed "Queen of Violence" and "Zombie Girl," so by god, I hope it's fun.

Lipski was the Women's Flyweight champion of Poland's Konfrontacja Sztuk Walki, better known as that one federation where Mariusz Pudzianowski would come out to fight on top of a tank. Her style can be best described as "I want to never stop hitting you," sometimes to her active detriment; multiple fights have seen her get taken down and, rather than focusing on sweeping, posturing or threatening with a submission, she would just throw hacking elbows from the bottom that would certainly not feel good, but ultimately do nothing to stop her opponents from beating her senseless. She's 3-4 in the UFC and every one of those four losses has come from fighters planting her on her back and making her pay for her hubris.

Which is presumably she she's fighting Priscila Cachoeira who, in seven UFC fights, has attempted three takedowns and completed precisely one of them. Cachoeira does not want to grapple, she wants to hit you in the head. She will do it with her hands, and if you are too close, she will do it with her elbows. She has won fights she should have lost by Leonard Garciaing as hard as possible in the vicinity of her opponent's face and successfully convincing the judges that she was pulling ahead by sheer, animal fury.

Both fighters are stand and bang weirdoes. Hopefully, that means this is an insane fist-slinging battle and not two scared strikers trying to outgrapple each other to get a tricky advantage. Either way, Ariane Lipski wins a decision.

PRELIMS: OH GOD DAMN IT

MIDDLEWEIGHT: Michał Oleksiejczuk (16-5 (1)) vs Sam Alvey (33-17-1 (1))

Sam Alvey's entire existence in the UFC at this point is a meme. He's not struggling or embattled or any of the weasel words I typically use to describe a fighter having a rough patch, he's 0 for his last 8 with just one split draw in the middle stopping it from being the longest losing streak in UFC history. His career now centers more around his role as a voice against unionization and holding the UFC to any kind of account than his talents as a fighter. And why wouldn't they love each other? Sam Alvey gets to keep having a career despite doing nothing but losing and the UFC gets a guy who'll fight two dozen fights over nearly a decade and not only happily accept $70k in show money but say thank you, turn around, and shit all over anyone who says fighter pay is a problem.

Michał Oleksiejczuk beat up Khalil Rountree Jr and knocked out Shamil Gamzatov with a Mortal Kombat uppercut. He should win this fight on his own merits, but in truth, his merits are irrelevant. He is not a man, he is a vessel for the collective exhaustion of mixed martial arts. The voices of the gods will speak through his fists, and they will say, "WE PATCHED YOU OUT OF THE GAME LIKE EIGHT UPDATES AGO, SAM ALVEY. FUCK OFF."

And it will be good.

Michał Oleksiejczuk by submission.

LIGHTWEIGHT: Terrance McKinney (12-4) vs Erick Gonzalez (14-6)

In his last fight I predicted Terrance McKinney would be too much for Drew Dober, which was saying a lot about my opinion of McKinney, because I fuckin' love Drew Dober. McKinney promptly knocked him down three times in one minute and nearly stopped him twice, and, somehow, got knocked out a minute and a half later. Hopefully this teaches him a lesson about maintaining his composure, because he still has a world of potential: He's a creative striker with brutal power and strong wrestling to back it up. He just also needed to be brought down to earth after winning almost every goddamn fight in his career by first round stoppage.

And that, most likely, is why the UFC gave him Erick "Ghost Pepper" Gonzalez to fight, an unproven journeyman whose only UFC fight came last year and saw him getting knocked the fuck out by Jim Miller, who, while I love him above nearly all other fighters, is not a knockout artist.

Terrance McKinney by TKO.

WELTERWEIGHT: Takashi Sato (16-5) vs Bryan Battle (7-1)

Once upon a time, Takashi Sato was the Great Pride Hope for finally getting a Japanese UFC champion. The power and accuracy in his fists were a massive threat to anyone at welterweight, and while he rarely had to use it, his 2nd Dan black belt in Judo gave people the confidence that, should he face grappling threats, he would be just fine. And then he got grapple-murdered by Belal Muhammad and Miguel Baeza and Gunnar Nelson, and the MMA world went "oh, okay" and got real quiet again.

Bryan Battle, by contrast, is on his way up. He won the last season of The Ultimate Fighter! You remember that, right? No? Don't worry, neither does the UFC. He won the tournament, no one watched it, he narrowly defeated Tresean Gore in an unofficial second tournament final, as Gore was scratched initially by injury, and now, as is the way of everyone who ever wins TUF, he's abandoning the weight class at which he achieved his celebrated victory to move down where he has a bigger advantage.

Bryan Battle is a spam fighter. He out-threw Tresean Gore on significant strikes 193 to 95, because that's how he wins fights: Constant, stifling pressure. He doesn't hit that hard, he doesn't hit that accurately, but he will not stop trying to hit you until you run out of time to hit him back. As much as I personally want Sato to reach through his flak cloud and drop him, I think Battle will chip away at him for his requisite fifteen minutes and take it in the end. Bryan Battle gets a decision.

WELTERWEIGHT: Jason Witt (19-8) vs Josh Quinlan (5-0 (1))

This is, I am sorry to say, a sacrificial fight. Jason Witt's UFC career has been one of constant yo-yoing: Get knocked out by Takashi Sato, submit Cole Williams, get bricked by Matt Semelsberger, barely scrape by Bryan Barberena, get dropped again by Philip Rowe. The like factor: He gets hurt on the feet, like, a lot. Even in his victory over Barberena he got savaged by strikes and nearly finished. Josh Quinlan, by contrast, is Dana White's new Contender Series baby who scored three of his five wins by punch-based knockout, and it would have been four of six had his Contender Series win not been taken away after he pissed hot for drostanolone.

Witt's not a bad fighter, but he's absolutely the kind of fighter who would be more successful were he willing to stick to his grappling bonafides rather than engaging in wild brawls as MMA has successfully hypnotized everyone into doing over the last few years. He's going to wind up doing it again here, and it's going to cost him. Josh Quinlan by TKO.

WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Cory McKenna (6-2) vs Miranda Granger (7-2)

This fight is an advertisement for UFC's need to adopt a 105-pound Atomweight class. Cory McKenna is giving up 10" of reach to Miranda Granger. They're going to look like they belong to different weight classes, and that's because they goddamn well should. If McKenna were some kind of wrestling machine I might favor her more, but she favors her boxing and tends to wind up in top position thanks to punches rather than takedowns. That's a problem against someone like Granger, who is more than capable of maintaining her range and potshotting with jabs and kicks until she gets a decision.

Granger's a sizable underdog here and I think that's more because she's been gone for two years and everyone's forgotten her than how the two actually match up. Miranda Granger gets a decision.

WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT: Mayra Bueno Silva (8-2-1) vs Stephanie Egger (7-2)

I'm into this fight. Bueno Silva and Egger are both creative, aggressive grapplers, Bueno Silva in particular having one of the fastest and possibly TOO commitment-heavy bottom games I've seen in women's MMA. In her fight with Yanan Wu she was chaining together armbar, triangle and kimura attempts so fast she didn't really have time to gain positional control--but she got Wu off of her, so maybe it worked anyway. Egger is the hammer rather than the nail: She likes clinch trips, she likes to work from the top and she would rather scramble for a leglock sweep and stand to pursue a takedown than fight from the bottom.

But the other big difference between them is Bueno Silva will swing on you like a rabid wolverine until the fight goes to the ground. Her aggression is going to be a key separation in this fight, and unless Egger can consistently hold onto top position, it's going to wear her down. Mayra Bueno Silva by decision.