CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 135: BACK TO THE MIDDLE
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs Dolidze 2
SATURDAY, MARCH 15 FROM THE GRAVITY WELL OF THE APEX
PRELIMS 1 PM PST / 4 PM EST | MAIN CARD 4 PM / 7 PM
Look at that low-effort-ass poster. Shameful.
There's always a feeling of anticlimax returning to the norm after a good pay-per-view. And UFC 313 was good! Carlos Leal running a boxing clinic, Maurício Ruffy getting a knockout-of-the-year nomination in early, Amanda Lemos keeping the gate, Gaethje/Fiziev delivering on short notice, Magomed Ankalaev ending the Alex Pereira title run? Real good stuff. Real good to be reminded that fighters fighting at the top of their game and getting booked well can remind you why you watch the sport.
So here's an Apex card with three ranked fighters on it and a Chidi Njokuani co-headliner and the main event is a Middleweight rematch so incredibly unnecessary that both contestants have a combined one win at their division in the two years since it happened.
MAIN EVENT: THE FLATTEST OF CIRCLES
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Marvin Vettori (19-6-1, #8) vs Roman Dolidze (14-3, #11)
Here's my modest proposal: Outlaw Middleweight. It's the only way we can be safe.
The division's in rough shape, man. Dricus du Plessis is a defending champion who wants to try for double-division gold more than he wants to deal with his contenders. Nassourdine Imavov is a potential top contender, but the audience isn't into him yet. The audience is into Khamzat Chimaev, but he fights once a year if you're lucky. Sean Strickland, Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker are all virtually eliminated from contention. Jared Cannonier is multiple fights away from the top and on the wrong side of 40. Paulo Costa cannot be proven to still exist.
And the middle of the Middleweight pack hinges on these two men having a rematch even though they just fought two years ago--almost to the day!--and virtually nothing has happened to either man's Middleweight hopes since.
If we're being honest, 'virtually nothing has happened' has been the Marvin Vettori story for awhile. It's hard to remember now, but the entire basis of Main Event Marvin Vettori wasn't his success or his wins, but the fact that he'd only lost to Israel Adesanya by split decision. That's it! He got his title shot by beating Kevin Holland, who had, himself, just lost his last fight! His argument for #1 contendership was a victory over the #10-ranked guy in the division and one judge thinking he somehow won a fight where he got outstruck and whiffed on all his takedowns for two straight rounds.
But he got there! And promptly shit the bed. He showed up to press with his shorts on backwards, he tried some trash talk that made no sense, he said a bunch of real dumb shit on Twitter, and then Adesanya outstruck him in every round, even when Vettori did succeed in taking him down, which he only managed on 4 out of 14 attempts. Vettori, of course, thought he won, and holds to this day that he was a better fighter than Adesanya in both of their bouts.
So it sure is unfortunate for him that he kept losing to people Adesanya beat. Vettori's only managed four fights in the four years since his shot at the belt, and they got off to a good start--he beat Paulo Costa back when that mattered and despite Costa being an unprofessional dickhead who changed the weight class twice because he refused to cut to 185--but it was mostly downhill after that. He met former champ Robert Whittaker and got completely outclassed. He met former title challenger Jared Cannonier, lost a decision, and almost got knocked out in the process.
There is, in fact, only one man Marvin Vettori has beaten since 2021.
At the time, Roman Dolidze seemed like a solid contender. His debut year in the UFC was a tough, one-win one-loss affair, but 2020 was tough on everybody, man. And since then, it'd been four straight wins! Sure, Laureano Staropoli got cut one fight later, and sure, Kyle Daukaus was not long for the UFC either, but Phil Hawes was still an incredibly scary striker, so Dolidze scoring a walk-off knockout against him got everyone's attention real fast.
But it was the fourth win that really got his foot in the door. Jack Hermansson has long been one of the UFC's best prospect spoilers. Kelvin Gastelum, Jacaré Souza, Edmen Shahbazyan, Chris Curtis, Joe Pyfer--hell, Hermansson almost ended Vettori's ascension. He's an incredibly smart, canny, all-around fighter who is never overwhelmed and rarely hurt. And then, at the end of 2022, Roman Dolidze rolled Hermansson up in a calf slicer, immobilized him completely and smashed his helpless skull until Marc Goddard saved him from brain damage. It was a fantastic, prospect-proving performance, and when the UFC announced Dolidze's opportunistic attacks would meet Vettori's clinch-wrestling pressure game, everyone wanted to see who would win.
Everyone is still kind of waiting.
It wasn't a bad fight, exactly, but it wasn't a definitive one. The first round was decent! Both men landed some solid punches! But the bout as a whole was close enough, and sufficiently lacking in either man taking a concerted advantage, that media scores were an evenly divided 50/50 split. The judges had no such compunctions. Vettori won a unanimous decision, meaning he was back to the main event, and Dolidze would have to go toil in midcard obscurity.
Except Vettori lost his next fight and spent the next twenty months on the shelf. Which is almost as silly as Dolidze, who got beaten so soundly by Nassourdine Imavov that he lost a wide decision despite Imavov getting docked a point over fouls. Then, through a series of progressively less sensible events, Roman somehow wound up fighting at Light Heavyweight and beating Anthony Smith, the #10 fighter in the division, which somehow did not entitle him to his ranking. But it did entitle him to a match with Kevin Holland! Which he won not through a knockout or submission, but because Holland's ribs disassembled themselves in mid-round.
So that's where we are. That's where Middleweight is. Two years ago this fight failed to produce a contender or any helpful movement in the rankings, and in the last two years both fighters have a combined Middleweight record of 1-2 and that victory was an injury stoppage, and now we have to do it again or the division cannot survive and we will all be damned with it.
Is there any reason to think this fight will be different? Probably not! It's not as though either fighter has dramatically changed their style, absorbed significant damage or aged precipitously. More than anything, a five-round fight probably benefits Vettori's gas tank. Otherwise? Meh. Maybe Vettori's tightened up his boxing a bit or maybe Dolidze lands a couple more of those wild haymakers he likes to throw, but I feel like this could just be a rerun of a show that wasn't very fun to watch the first time around.
So enjoy Young Sheldon: The MMA Fight. MARVIN VETTORI BY DECISION.
CO-MAIN EVENT: TREADING VIOLENT WATERS
WELTERWEIGHT: Elizeu Zaleski (25-8-1) vs Chidi Njokuani (24-10 (1))
Is it possible to like both fighters, acknowledge their lack of momentum, admit that their fight is likely to be fun, and still dislike it?
Because I do like Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. I have always liked Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. It's easy to be committed to violence in opportune situations, but Zaleski's been pulling off aggressively violent bullshit in the UFC for damn near ten years and he's accumulated some real highlights in that time. He knocked out fighters who've competed as low as Featherweight and as high as Light Heavyweight. He beat Benoît Saint Denis damn near half to death in the cage. Hell, he knocked out Welterweight Sean Strickland with a spinning heel kick back when no one cared about Strickland because he hadn't committed to his idiot bigot persona yet.
But he's also struggled to come even close to threatening the rankings. He's only strung back-to-back wins together once in the last six years. He's only managed one of those knockouts in the same span of time, and it was his last fight against no less than Zach Scroggin, a 7-0 short-notice regional replacement who'd barely even fought anyone with a winning record and whom the UFC unceremoniously cut immediately after his loss. Zaleski's best fight numerically in those last six years isn't even a win--it's managing a majority draw against Rinat Fakhretdinov, who was supposed to maul him. Which is great! But it's still not a win.
Chidi Njokuani is unfortunately also familiar with not winning fights. His UFC tenure got off to a stellar start: He dropped the exceptionally tough Marc-André Barriault in just sixteen seconds and took out the slightly less imposing Duško Todorović in the first round, both of which made for great highlight reel material. As it turns out, being a 6'3" wrecking machine with 80" reach and preposterously dangerous knockout victories? Really good for your marketing fortunes.
But marketing can only make you favored to win fights; it cannot actually win them. Chidi was the odds-on favorite to win his next three fights, and each time, he underperformed. He couldn't out-tough Gregory Rodrigues, and he couldn't out-wrestle Albert Duraev, and he couldn't out-gun Michał Oleksiejczuk, and just as quickly as his career had taken off he was suddenly three fights and two devastating stoppages in the hole. But the marketing machine was still his friend, which is how he got a nice, soft landing in fights with Rhys McKee and Jared Gooden who, collectively, have a UFC record of 2-9. Great way to rehabilitate a fighter you'd like to see succeed.
Except he couldn't stop either of them. The UFC tried to get Chidi back in the highlights and he simply could not oblige them. Some of this is his opponents being tough, assuredly: Some of it is Chidi dropping from 185 to 170, because it's a lot harder to be a 6'3" wrecking machine when you're cutting down to fucking Welterweight.
Chidi should win this fight. He's got the knockout power and he's got the range--more than half a foot of it, comparatively. But I refuse to let go of my dude. ELIZEU ZALESKI BY TKO.
MAIN CARD: QUIETLY PRETENDING
LIGHTWEIGHT: Alexander Hernandez (15-8) vs Kurt Holobaugh (21-8 (1))
Alexander Hernandez is hanging on by the skin of his teeth and the bones of the old. The biggest Lightweight prospect of 2018 is now an aging veteran struggling to stay afloat, but somehow, he has kept clawing his way back from losing streaks. Sure, one of those victories came over the debuting and now-cut Mike Breeden, and sure, his 2022 losing streak only ended because he fought the veteran and now 41 year-old Jim Miller, and sure, he's only now maintaining his not-cut status thanks to an absurdly close split decision against The Ultimate Fighter 31 (jesus christ) runner-up Austin Hubbard, but a win is a win. And the UFC knows exactly how to prove Hernandez still belongs here: Giving him the other fucking TUF 31 finalist.
Yeah. Alexander Hernandez beat Austin Hubbard, so now he has to beat The Other Guy Who Beat Austin Hubbard. Kurt Holobaugh was the Lightweight winner of TUF 31, the comeback season that promised former UFC veterans another shot at the bigtime, and Holobaugh made the most of his second chance by immediately losing his first post-TUF fight to Trey Ogden. Kaynan Kruschewsky was a more digestible opponent, but even in victory, Holobaugh still had to grapple like his life depended on it and only narrowly pulled out the decision. A TUF trophy still clearly carries some cache, given that Holobaugh's still on television instead of buried in the prelims, but they're not giving him an easy road, either.
I'd like to pick Holobaugh here. I think his wrestling is more than a match for Hernandez. But--like a lot of guys, for some strange, definitely not untoward reason--he's been using it much less in this second lease on UFC life. If he sticks with grappling I think he'll cruise to a decision. If he tries to make this a boxing match, as he's recently been wont to do, I have much less faith. ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ BY DECISION.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Da'Mon Blackshear (15-7-1) vs Cody Gibson (21-10)
Da'Mon Blackshear got knocked out in eighteen seconds by Montel Jackson last July, and this is already his second fight back, and Jackson is not due back in the cage until May. There are aspects of this sport and its scheduling I simply do not understand. Blackshear is still trying to regain the momentum he had in the Summer of 2023 as an up-and-coming grappling expert ruined by his own willingness to take fights too goddamn fast, which got him shipwrecked on the Cape of Bautista. Choking out Cody Stamann this past November was a good start, but the UFC is not yet done with Da'Mon and their steady supply of Codies yet.
Hell, we're not even done with TUF 31 people yet. I'm convinced the UFC just likes booking people in thematically relevant packs, because Cody Gibson is the other TUF 31 runner-up, this time down at 135 pounds. He couldn't get past Brad Katona, but he got signed anyway, because let's be real, it's all hands on fucking deck when you need to fill 500+ fights per year. Gibson's angry wrestling couldn't get him past Miles Johns either, but it did retire Brian Kelleher and grind out Chad Anheliger. It's better than nothing!
But it's probably not going to work for him here. Gibson's style is real reliant on his grappling, and Blackshear's generally been a more creative, more successful grappler. DA'MON BLACKSHEAR BY SUBMISSION.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT: Diyar Nurgozhay (10-0) vs Brendson Ribeiro (16-7 (1))
Diyar Nurgozhay is Okay. He's one of Kazakhstan's most successful fighters, he was Eagle FC's 205-pound champion and got lost in the shuffle for a couple years after its international collapse, and it's only in the last ten months that he's returned to the sport. He's made a solid accounting for himself in the process--though less for his Contender Series win, which was over A Guy, and more for the re-debut that saw him beat the stuffing out of former Professional Fighters League tournament winner Emiliano Sordi, who, admittedly, isn't quite as solid as he used to be, but it's still pretty hard to destroy him. Brendson Ribeiro is in a much less pleasant position. He was 2023's Light Heavyweight DWCS model, and he followed up his contract victory by getting smashed in a minute and a half and wrestled into a fine paste. Last November's victory over Caio Machado saved his job, but it was also a remarkably poor fight that saw Ribeiro landing about three strikes per minute and only barely getting away with a split decision.
Which is why, having proven how susceptible he is to solid boxing and solid wrestling, the UFC has him fighting an undefeated prospect who's decent at both. DIYAR NURGOZHAY BY TKO.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Seungwoo Choi (11-7) vs Kevin Vallejos (14-1)
Nothing speaks to this moment in mixed martial arts like the obligatory Contender Series Debutant vs Guy On The Cusp Of Getting Cut matchup. This week, Seungwoo Choi is playing the latter role. "Sting" was the promising prospect just a few years ago--knocking out Julian Erosa is always good and anyone with a victory over Youssef Zalal is seeing it age really, really well right now--but as hard as he hits and as solid as his wrestling defense may be, it just hasn't been enough. Choi's the dreaded 1 for his last 5 and those last two losses involved getting punched silly in a single round, which means he's in the unfortunate position of fighting to keep his job.
Which means we're going back to the Samurai Fight House. That's right, baby: The talent pipeline of main eventers from the only Argentinian promotion brave enough to ask questions like "Can an undefeated 12-0 prospect defeat an 8-5 guy who's never beaten anyone with a winning record" is alive and well. Vallejos was their Featherweight champion before heading off to the Contender Series, and like most SFH fighters, his record's a little spotty. It's very successful--his only loss was a decision in his first DWCS shot against Jean Silva, and even if he lost, not getting knocked out by Jean Silva is pretty good--but most of his career has been spent against the less accomplished men of the sport. But he's got a pleasantly tanky fighting style that doesn't use a lot of movement in favor of a high, tight guard and the willingness to eat punches to land them.
He's fighting off a huge size disadvantage, though. Just like the previous fight, Choi's got damn near half a foot of height and reach on Vallejos, and he's traditionally struggled more with opponents he couldn't outrange. Vallejos' love of keeping it tight could cost him if he can't get past the jab. Going to stick with the upset here: SEUNGWOO CHOI BY DECISION.
PRELIMS: THE LAST DAUGHTER OF FEATHERWEIGHT
HEAVYWEIGHT: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (12-1, #12) vs Ryan Spann (22-10, NR)
I have an unhealthy relationship with the Heavyweight division whereby I swing wildly between hating it for being stupid and loving it for being stupid. Objectively, this match is stupid. Waldo "Salsa Boy" Cortes-Acosta, whose full name I will always write in exactly that way, is the #12 Heavyweight on the planet because he beat Łukasz Brzeski, who was 0-3 in the company, Andrei Arlovski, who was on a two-fight losing streak at 44 years old, and Robelis Despaigne, who had one UFC fight and would be cut one fight later. Ryan Spann, who is challenging for his ranked position, just went on a three-fight losing streak at Light Heavyweight and narrowly averted his firing by beating Ovince St. Preux, who was also in his forties and also got cut immediately afterward. Between these two men the highest-profile victory they have in the last three years is either the star attraction of cryptocurrency-themed gambling promotion Karate Combat or a standout contender from Strikeforce circa 2011.
One of these men will be one of the best Heavyweights in mixed martial arts. Both of these men could lose to a Middleweight who was having a good day. WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA BY DECISION.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Suyoung You (14-3 (2)) vs AJ Cunningham (11-4)
And then, there are the givens. Suyoung You is your 2024 Featherweight Road to UFC Champion, and if you have a particularly good memory, you'll recall his final victory over Baergeng Jieleyisi from last November. Or you may not, because it happened on Yan vs Figueiredo, the China-centric card that started at three in the damn morning here. It was a solid fight, with Baergeng spamming a lot of shots and You alternating between staying out of reach, hitting clinch trips, landing big right hands and getting the fuck out of Dodge as soon as things got too hot. And it worked! It worked well enough. He got through the door.
But the UFC's pretty okay holding the door open for him. If you've got a really good memory, you'll recall AJ Cunningham from last year's Rozenstruik vs Gaziev undercard.
Traditionally, this is where I discuss whatever Contender Series winner they've tapped, and how they have a decent on-paper record but it's padded by subpar competition. This is the rare exception: AJ Cunningham has a decent on-paper record padded by subpar competition and he got the shit kicked out of him on the Contender Series. He fought Steven Nguyen, he showed more or less no defense and opted for catching punches with his face, he got folded in half by a right hand and saved by the bell, and proceeded to catch such a sustained beating in the second round that the referee had to save him from himself.
The UFC elected to bring Cunningham in on short notice to fight Ľudovít Klein, one of the most frustratingly underrated and underused fighters in the company. Klein outstruck him almost 2:1, took him down twice, and knocked him out with a kick to the body all in four and a half minutes. AJ Cunningham is still here, and it is not because the UFC has great expectations for his success.
I kind of hope he turns things around just because it would be funny and gratifying. That said, SUYOUNG YOU BY TKO.
WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Stephanie Luciano (6-1-1) vs Sam Hughes (9-6)
They keep trying to get rid of Sam Hughes and she keeps refusing to go away. Her scrappy, grinding style may not please management, but no matter how many underdog fights they book her into she keeps surviving to fight yet another marketing-preferred favorite. Hughes was supposed to get picked off by Victoria Dudakova last August, and instead she outstruck her, outgrappled her and pulled off a decision that would have been clear and unanimous were it not for one judge who clearly did not watch the fight giving Dudakova a shutout. But that's still less weird than Stephanie "Rondinha" Luciano's career. In 2023, Luciano was a Brazilian regional champion booked to battle Italy's Fabiola Pidroni on the Contender Series. But Pidroni pulled out and Luciano wound up fighting her countrywoman Talita Alencar instead. It was a draw, but Dana was pleased and/or desperate so they both got signed. Luciano was supposed to fight Shauna Bannon and Julia Polastri, but neither worked out, and thus her eventual UFC debut last August was, once again, against Talita Alencar. But she won! And now she has to fight her first opponent who is not Talita goddamn Alencar in almost three years.
And I refuse to give up on Sampage. SAM HUGHES BY DECISION.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Carlos Vera (11-4) vs Josias Musasa (8-0)
There are so many goddamn TUF 31 alumni on this card, and Carlos Vera is yet another. His stay on the show was not long--he got eliminated by eventual winner Brad Katona in the first round--but, in yet another reminder that format is a lie, the UFC signed him up anyway so he could be a short-notice fill-in fighter for Daniel Marcos. And then Marcos couldn't make it. So instead they had Rinya Nakamura wrestle the shit out of Vera before throwing him in the freezer for thirteen months and thawing him out to hopefully feed him to another prospect they care about more. Josias "The K.O. Wizard" Musasa got pulled into the Contender Series thanks to his 100% knockout rate, his success in the African market they pretend to occasionally want to break into, and the hope that they might see him make some highlight reel money. He, of course, promptly won his contract by split decision instead, because this is what happens when your entire career comes from rookies and regional scenes. They would really like Musasa to get them some good knockouts, but they're not too sold, which is presumably why he's fighting a guy who's never been knocked out before.
But Musasa's also an okay wrestler, a larger man, and eleven years younger. I think Vera has the better all-around skillset, but we also just saw him so rattled by Nakamura's wrestling assault that he resorted to spamming desperation wheel kicks and falling over. Musasa may not have the wrestling chops, but he does have the knockout power to keep anyone flustered. I'm trusting the coin on this one and the coin says CARLOS VERA BY DECISION.
FLYWEIGHT: Daniel Barez (17-6) vs André Lima (10-0)
The UFC has spent a lot of time on their 'there are only two routes into the sport and it's the Contender Series or a late replacement opportunity' marketing line, but the path from there is not remotely equivalent. Daniel Barez was brought into the UFC on short notice to get sockpuppeted by Jafel Filho, and since then it's been all Contender Series winner fights, all the time. He got a win over Victor Altamirano last year! But now it's André Lima, one of the company's stranger cases. Lima's UFC debut was the fight where Igor Severino famously got disqualified for taking a bite out of his bicep, which is fortunate, because it washed away the memory of Lima repeatedly cheating by grabbing the fence and punching Igor in the back of the head. Luckily, Lima won his next fight pretty clearly! Except for the judges, who inexplicably ruled it a split, which may also have been revenge for Lima missing weight by a whole five pounds. But Lima's last appearance in September saw him finally, uncontroversially win a fight in the UFC after beating Felipe dos Santos! Except for the part where there was an inexplicable self-called time-out in the middle of the third round where Lima blew his nose and wiped it on the referee's sleeve.
I swear, this dude. He's really talented, but there's somehow always something. I'm still thinking ANDRÉ LIMA BY DECISION but watch him get caught sneaking a baseball bat into the cage or something.
WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT: Josiane Nunes (10-3) vs Priscila Cachoeira (12-6)
I have said often that it is crucially important to your soul as a combat sports fan to be in the tank for a fighter here and there, and I am in the tank for Josiane Nunes. I have been Team Josi ever since the UFC booked her into Women's Featherweight despite being 5'2" in the Cyborgweight division, and then she won anyway--twice!--and my faith was set for life. Sure, she's promptly lost both of her Bantamweight fights, but I just don't care. And what the hell else are you going to root for at 135 right now? The rise of Ailín Pérez? Miesha Tate's third or fourth career comeback? Priscila Cachoeira, who washed out of Flyweight and who, after ten UFC fights, is still most famous for getting outstruck 230 to 3 in her debut, which was, inexplicably, against Valentina Shevchenko?
No. Times are tough and we must cling to faith, and while I have no church, I do have 5'2" Featherweights. JOSIANE NUNES BY DECISION.
WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT: Yuneisy Duben (6-0 (1)) vs Carli Judice (3-2)
This is it. This is the one that breaks me. I always thought it would be Light Heavyweight. In the years you and I have spent together I have complained dozens of times about Contender Series fighters who get their shot despite fighting mostly rookies or people with losing records. This is the absurdly rare case of both. By the time Yuneisy Duben made it to the Contender Series last September she had five wins and one No Contest on her record and the combined record of her opponents was 0. This is not a typo or a misstatement. Five years and six fights into Yuneisy Duben's career as a professional mixed martial artist, she had not fought a single person who had ever fought before with the sole exception of rematching the woman she got the No Contest against. Since meeting her, none of her opponents have gone on to win a fight, either. When she fought Shannon Clark on the Contender Series she looked like an awkward, plodding brawler who kept squaring up her stance and throwing bad punches while walking backwards and getting repeatedly caught, and because mixed martial arts runs on humor, she still landed a big right hand and left Clark unconscious on the canvas. And she's fighting Carli Judice, a woman who's been in there with regional champions and UFC veterans and has never beaten a single one of them, and I want to emphasize this next sentence: Yuneisy is an undefeated fighter who just scored a huge, one-minute knockout, and Carli Judice lost on the Contender Series and in her UFC debut and is on a two-fight losing streak, and Judice is a -400 betting favorite, because Charles Ginsburg and a bunch of poorly-paid engineers invented video tape recording.
But maybe Duben knocks someone else out. Maybe Hell is full and all our sins are roaming the Earth desperately seeking new homes. Maybe this is the sport we deserve. CARLI JUDICE BY TKO because I want to believe.