CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 130: INTO THE VOID

UFC 312: du Plessis vs Strickland 2

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 8 FROM THE QUDOS BANK ARENA IN SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
EARLY PRELIMS 3 PM PST / 6 PM EST | PRELIMS 5 PM / 8 PM | MAIN CARD 7 PM / 10 PM

Just a precious few weeks ago we were discussing how wonderfully stacked UFC 311 was. Typically, one championship fight, one contendership fight and some ranked bouts down the way are the best one can hope for. But two championship fights, multiple contendership bouts and a bunch of ranked folks and promising prospects? Fantastic! And we have two championship fights here, too! Is this going to be as good?

Well, once you get past the title bouts there isn't a single ranked competitor on the card, one of said bouts is built around Sean Strickland, and your third fight from the top is Justin Tafa vs Tallison Teixeira.

Huddle together, friends. It's gonna be a cold February.

_{the drop-off is very, very real}

MAIN EVENT: THE WAY OUT IS THROUGH
MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Dricus du Plessis (22-2, Champion) vs Sean Strickland (29-6, #1)

The main and co-main really should have been flipped around.

We'll talk about it more in a few minutes when we get there, obviously, but Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez is a fight people have wanted for years. There has been a very real desire to see Zhang fight someone with a credible chance against her since just before her public execution of Carla Esparza, and everyone's been begging Tatiana's knees to stay functional long enough for a championship test since 2018. There is a very real appetite and anticipation for the co-main event.

The main event is a thing that's just sort of Happening. Which is funny, because if it had happened last year it probably would've been a bigger deal.

Dricus du Plessis vs Sean Strickland was already an unforeseen bout the first time around. The world hadn't expected Dricus to smash Robert Whittaker: Dricus was one fight removed from almost getting finished by Derek Brunson and Whittaker was considered a near-lock for another shot at Israel Adesanya's title. The odds were even more slanted against Sean Strickland being the one to take Izzy's belt: He wasn't even a year past losing to Jared Cannonier and he'd just dropped a round to Abus Magomedov two months prior.

Everyone expected the old guard to stick around longer than it ultimately did. When Dricus challenged Sean for his title the conventional wisdom was either Dricus would barnstorm him or Sean would chip him down for twenty-five minutes. Instead, we were treated to five back-and-forth rounds with largely even striking, a wrestling edge for Dricus, and, ultimately, a split decision that gave him the belt.

And it was...fine? The most you can really say about the fight is "It was fine." No one added anything notable to their highlight reel, neither man was definitively better than their opponent, the media scores were remarkably close to a 50/50 split, and du Plessis won the cosmic coinflip. The only people clamoring for a rematch were Strickland, people with a diehard love for martial fundamentals, and the portion of Strickland's fanbase that crave grievance too much to not see people disagreeing with them as an injustice.

But that would've been enough, honestly. If you'd run the fight back in the Summer, it would've been fine. Sure, you'd have people like me complain because we just don't want to see Sean fucking Strickland, but we're fight perverts who will wind up watching anyway. You could have billed it as a too-close-to-call, you-have-to-make-sure rematch and the audience would largely have sighed and accepted it.

Instead, each man got one more fight. And it kind of made shit worse!

Dricus defended his title against Israel Adesanya, had a solid back-and-forth with the legend, and ultimately choked him out in the fourth round. It was a good performance that felt like the passing of a torch, which makes it unfortunate that one fight later Adesanya got torched. In the present day we're just one event removed from Nassourdine Imavov, a man who hadn't scored a real knockout since 2021, dropping Adesanya with deeply depressing ease, and du Plessis beating him now feels just a bit less like a victory over an all-time great and a bit more like an observation of water eroding a mountain until it collapses.

Strickland's path was much funnier. When Dana White announced Strickland would have to win another fight before getting a shot, rumors flew about his potential opponent. A rematch with Cannonier? A risky bout against an up-and-coming prospect like Brendan Allen? Nope! Paulo Costa. Strickland earned his rematch by beating a man whose only victory in five years came against Luke Rockhold, who had, himself, exited three years of retirement (to which he promptly returned). Strickland won, and the UFC offered him a big main event title eliminator against the #3-ranked Robert Whittaker, and Strickland told them to go to hell and give him his title shot.

He got it, and it's hard not to see it as indicative of the flux in which Middleweight is stuck. Greats like Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker are on their way out, but not yet gone. Prospects like Caio Borralho and Anthony Hernandez are on their way up, but not yet arrived. Khamzat Chimaev looks unstoppable, but can't get booked more than once a year.

And Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland are having a rematch because the ghosts of the passing era could not stop it.

So what do you say about a fight that we just saw one year ago? The assumption that Dricus would barnstorm Sean was clearly incorrect. The assumption that Sean could out-cardio Dricus was clearly incorrect. Has either fighter noticeably changed their style? Of course not, it was one fucking year ago. The safe and obvious bet here is the same thing happening again. Strickland has never been a big knockout striker and Dricus has proven to be more and more of an overwhelming fighter, which means Strickland is real unlikely to turn the tides by knocking Dricus around and Dricus is real unlikely to overwhelm Sean because his style is just too defensively sound. The biggest change for either fighter in the last year was Dricus finally apologizing for all his weird Boer bullshit about who was or wasn't a real African.

There isn't much else to analyze in the last twelve months. But where once I hoped for Strickland to lose because he's a bigoted piece of shit, I am now hoping for Strickland to lose because he's a bigoted piece of shit and if he wins we're getting stuck in another fucking Shevchenko/Grasso rubber match situation and we'll never goddamn escape.

DRICUS DU PLESSIS BY TKO because I desperately want this to end definitively so we never have to think about it again.

CO-MAIN EVENT: THE FRAGILE
WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Zhang Weili (25-3, Champion) vs Tatiana Suarez (10-0, #1)

It's very, very hard for me to endorse the UFC skipping top contenders, but boy, this is the fucking time.

Zhang Weili is one of the best Strawweight fighters in the history of mixed martial arts. She's held the belt twice, she's got multiple defenses under her belt, and the audience (outside China, anyway) has barely become invested in her title reign because every bit of it has felt hopelessly lopsided.

Hell, even the start of the reign felt that way. Outside of sociopolitical disagreement/the desperate urge for more people in the sport to not be terrible, it's remarkably difficult to get me to mock a fighter for their actual skills. I think even fighters perceived as bad are often underrated and a lot of bouts come closer than they're expected to be. Having said that, this was the first line of my writeup for Weili's shot at defending champion Carla Esparza back in 2022:

aaaaahhhhhahaahahahahahaahahahahahaahahahahahaWeili Zhang by TKOahahahahaha.

Sometimes, betting lines underestimate champions. Sometimes Merab Dvalishvili is an underdog to a Nurmagomedov and the world is wrong. This was not one of those times. Zhang dominated Carla and in doing so set the tone for a slightly limited reign on top, and this is, once again, where we tiptoe on the edge of disrespect.

Because I have the utmost respect for Amanda Lemos and Yan Xiaonan. They're both great, they're both standout contenders, and they both beat Mackenzie Dern and thus made the UFC angry, which is the best thing you can do as a martial artist. But there was very little faith that either would present a great challenge for Zhang, and those expectations were right. Lemos got outstruck 296 to 29. Yan was both knocked out and submitted in the same fight (but still made it to the bell, because MMA is silly).

There just haven't been many believable contenders.

But that's in large part because no one believed Tatiana Suarez could make it to a title fight.

Tatiana has been the heir apparent for a very, very long time. She sailed through The Ultimate Fighter 23 (jesus christ) with ease and two fights later she was chucking future and former world champions in the garbage and making it look almost painfully easy. She outwrestled everyone, she outgrappled everyone, she was just bigger, stronger and meaner than everyone. Alexa Grasso, who would eventually be a world champion an entire weight class up, has gone through twenty of her twenty-one career fights without suffering a stoppage loss. Mizuki Inoue couldn't stop her. Carla Esparza couldn't stop her. Across three fights, with more than an hour of fight time, pound-for-pound great Valentina Shevchenko couldn't stop her.

The single exception saw Tatiana Suarez choke Grasso out in two minutes and forty-four seconds.

Tatiana has always been at the top of the heap. The world fully accepted her as the next big thing when she fought Carla Esparza and dominated her on the ground. Just like Zhang she outwrestled her, and just like Zhang the stats were almost comically lopsided, with the TKO coming after a 136 to 12 differential in strikes. Tatiana was undeniable as a title contender.

Except that was in 2018.

Tatiana Suarez's talents are rivaled only by her body's inability to stay functional. It's not even just the curse of mixed martial arts--before she ever strapped on the gloves she was ruled out of the 2012 Olympics after an examination of a bulging disc in her neck, which would already be bad enough, also revealed that she had fucking cancer. She beat it, thankfully, but the bad bodily luck formed a trend that has chased her ever since.

Immediately after winning TUF in 2016 she had to miss more than a year of competition thanks to a knee injury. She managed two good years, then her neck injury flared up again and kept her out of action until 2021--and then her 2021 return was scratched because her knee stopped working again. After almost four years of inactivity she came back in 2023, had her first pair of fights in a single calendar year in half a decade, easily won both, and came into 2024 reinvigorated as a top contender in need of a title eliminator. And she was booked into them. Twice!

But she missed the entirety of 2024 because she was injured again.

Tatiana was supposed to fight Virna Jandiroba twice to establish herself as the next woman up for the belt. I would still love to see that fight someday. Tatiana's wrestling and Virna's grappling would make for some amazing exchanges, and in virtually any other situation I would be livid about a fighter jumping the line and getting a shot at the champion instead of having one of those contendership bouts rebooked.

But this time? This one, single time?

It is the absolute right thing to do.

I am not a doctor, but I feel medically qualified to diagnose Tatiana Suarez with Body Won't Stop Exploding Syndrome. They have been trying to get her into pole position since goddamn 2018. The first time they tried to get Tatiana into a contendership matchup TJ Dillashaw was still wearing gold. The first time they tried to get Tatiana into a contendership matchup Anderson Silva was still three fights away from retiring. The first time they tried to get Tatiana into a contendership matchup BJ fucking Penn was still fighting.

Every fight could be the last chance to book her for years to come, and there's no guarantee the next injury won't be the one that finally forces her to retire. We passed "strike while the iron is hot" territory quite some time ago; we are now in "strike while the iron has not yet been crushed into nothingness by the Big Crunch." Zhang vs Suarez has been the match to make for quite some time, and I am not going to complain one bit about the UFC making it while they can.

Because, boy, it's fucking interesting. Suarez is almost assuredly a better technical wrestler than Zhang, but Zhang might be the only woman in the division she can't out-power. Zhang is the far more proven striker, but Suarez is bigger, longer, and very hard to rattle. Tatiana might be the favorite on the ground, but she's never been in a five-round fight, and the last time she went even three rounds was all the way back in 2019, and she looked visibly depleted by the time the last bell rang.

And, as I said back in 2023:

No one knows what Tatiana Suarez we'll get when she steps into the cage. She hasn't competed in nearly four years, and in those years she's had her knee reconstructed and her spine repeatedly stabbed. It's entirely likely she looks just as amazing as she did when she was effortlessly crushing world champions; it's entirely likely she comes back rusty and unsteady and gets consumed by a busier wrestler.

Tatiana is, once again, coming off a host of injuries and a year and a half of inactivity, and that means we must, once again, cross our fingers and hope she's still the fighter she was before her knees imploded for the fourteenth time.

Because I think a healthy Suarez is a champion. Zhang is amazing, but she's also at her best when she's the bully in her fights. She excels at forward pressure, she excels at doing whatever she wants on the ground. When Yan Xiaonan fought back and actually forced Zhang to fight on her back foot, she took a round from her even in the midst of being destroyed. If Zhang can't stop the takedowns, if she winds up on her back, the fight stops being about who's the better all-around competitor and becomes about Zhang's ability to survive and repeatedly get back to her feet in the hopes Suarez gets tired before she can finish her.

But I've been hoping for Suarez for years and if this is the one chance she gets, I'm not wasting it on doubt. TATIANA SUAREZ BY SUBMISSION.

MAIN CARD: WHERE IS EVERYBODY?
HEAVYWEIGHT: Justin Tafa (7-4 (1)) vs Tallison Teixeira (7-0)

Back in December, the UFC took away my Christmas present.

But this was supposed to be a bout between Brzeski and a 6'7" Heavyweight named Tallison Teixeira before he got injured and had to be replaced. Do you know what kind of joy in my heart I could have gotten making dumb, obvious jokes about a 6'7" Heavyweight named Tallison? This was a gift from the heavens to make a difficult month easier, and then he got injured and now it's just a Kennedy Nzechukwu squash match instead.

It took two months, but my day has come. It's Tallison Teixeira time, motherfuckers.

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Tallison Teixeira is a really big guy who does knockouts and he hasn't fought anyone but he's in the UFC anyway. He did not fight a single person with a winning record until his Contender Series match this past September, and, like. Look at it. I want you to really look at it.

Did you know they fired Jairzinho Rozenstruik this weekend? Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a top ten Heavyweight kickboxer with knockout victories over three different UFC champions who was on a two-fight winning streak and 3 for his last 5. They don't have space for him. He doesn't belong in the UFC.

But Tallison Teixeira, the man who slew the legendary 4-16 Julio "Centauro" dos Santos, does. And so does Justin Tafa, who is about to have his tenth UFC bout and somehow has yet to defeat a single person with a winning record in the company. Tafa is also coming off a decision loss! Tafa is also three for his last five! Tafa's best career win came against Parker goddamn Porter!

But there's room for him. And it's Australia.

And Tallison Teixeira is tall.

The future of Heavyweight is men flailing their arms like clotheslines blowing in the nuclear wind and they stop not when one of them is dead, but when all of us are. Every Tallison Teixeira fight involves him taking punches to the face and walking forward anyway, because he is very tall. Justin Tafa is much less tall and is giving up 9" of reach and Teixeira just whipping kicks at his head until he stops moving is very likely. But Justin Tafa owes me for not letting Austen Lane win.

Don't fuck it up, Justin. JUSTIN TAFA BY KO.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT: Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) vs Rodolfo Bellato (12-2)

Speaking of people who are still employed by the UFC instead of a top ten Heavyweight: Hey, Jimmy Crute! I have nothing against Jimmy Crute, he's fun to watch, he knocked out Sam Alvey and he's indirectly responsible for a Peruvian Necktie happening in the UFC again, I have the utmost love for him. He also hasn't won a fight in five and a half years. The only non-loss on Crute's record since the year 2020 was a draw against Alonzo Menifield in February of 2023, and even that would have been a split decision loss had Menifield not lost a point over a cage grab, and to make sure the point wasn't missed, they had a rematch five months later and Menifield crushed him and choked him out in a round and a half. And this was, in theory, going to be a friendly tune-up match for him. He was originally scheduled to face Marcin Prachnio tonight--a similarly embattled fighter with more UFC losses than wins who just got choked out by a man Crute destroyed.

But Prachnio couldn't make it, so instead, Crute gets to test a prospect. Rodolfo Bellato is a Contender Series man and that is, as of now, his entire identity as a fighter. He's a big strong knockout fellow and he got a poverty-wages contract and he hits people and his name makes me think of MMA organizations tragically passed. Bellato has some actual, decent wins on his record, and that gets him ahead of the game as far as the average DWCS contender goes. Unfortunately, he also got the shit knocked out of him by Vitor Petrino. Twice! Across a three-year span! Given that Petrino just went from 'possible contender' to 'moving to Heavyweight after getting destroyed twice in a row by people the UFC sees little value in,' that's kind of a reputation you need to shake. And it's probably why the UFC gave Rodolfo their favorite punching bag, Ihor Potieria, to make short work of in his debut.

On a skill-by-skill level, Crute should win this one. But he's been losing and injured for long enough that it's really hard for me to maintain the faith. RODOLFO BELLATO BY TKO.

WELTERWEIGHT: Jake Matthews (20-7) vs Francisco Prado (12-2)

I want to go back to 2022, man. The MMA world had been waiting almost ten goddamn years for the seemingly inevitable breakout Jake Matthews performance that would finally make him a thing, and on the same night Glover Teixeira and Jiří Procházka had one of the best fights in 205-pound history, Jake Matthews pitched a perfect game against Andre Fialho. It's one of both the best and worst parts of mixed martial arts: You are only ever as good as your last performance. One great night after eight years of up-and-down was enough to make the fans think Matthews could finally be a world-beater. And then he spent the next two and a half years going 2-2, and everyone's kind of over it again. The truly insane part is Matthews started so young that he's about to have his 21st UFC fight and he doesn't even turn 31 until this August. But the mileage is real, both in terms of his fights and the fanbase's lost faith.

But he's still a betting favorite over Francisco Prado, which is probably half down to Matthews' years of experience and half because I don't think anyone knows who Francisco Prado is. If I told you this is the fourth time you've seen me write a paragraph about him, would you believe me? If I told you two thirds of his UFC fights got performance awards and main-card placements, would you believe me? Because Prado's been around, man. This is his third year with the UFC and he's been on television more than most ranked female fighters. But losing to Jamie Mullarkey doesn't look as good as it used to, nor does knocking out Ottman Azaitar, and even though Prado's got some slick grappling and solid power in his hands, he is about as lost in the shuffle as a fighter can get. Which is why he needs a win over a Jake Matthews to entrench himself in the sport. I'm not sure if going up a weight class is part of the plan or just only having three weeks to prepare.

Either way, I am just like everyone else, so I am sticking with the devil I know. JAKE MATTHEWS BY DECISION.

PRELIMS: EVEN DEEPER
FEATHERWEIGHT: Jack Jenkins (13-3) vs Gabriel Santos (11-2)

The Jack Jenkins hype train was real if short-lived, and this is the UFC's attempt to see if it's ready to get back on track. When Jenkins soared through the Contender Series in 2022 he was an accurately-punching, leg-destroying machine on a lengthy winning streak and people were real eager to see where he stacked up in arguably the UFC's most-stacked division. And then he fought Don Shainis, a man Sodiq Yusuff had walked through in thirty seconds, and had to take him to a decision. And then he fought Jamall Emmers and took a split decision that was widely agreed to be one of the biggest robberies of the year. And then he fought Chepe Mariscal and Chepe broke Jenkins' god damned arm. It is no surprise that when the UFC brought Jenkins back, they gave him Herbert Burns--a man who was, with all respect, one of the softest targets in the entire company. Gabriel Santos was not a fortunate son. Gabriel Santos was brought in as a last-minute replacement with barely a week to prepare against one of the company's British heirs apparent in Lerone Murphy. And he won! Sort of. He won 90% of media scorecards, but, of course, lost with the actual judges. It rubbed off, though--fans were very interested to see what Santos would do next--and, unfortunately, the answer was 'get knocked stupid by David Onama and take an entire year off.' When last we saw "Mosquitinho" he was returning from his lengthy vacation and earning a workmanlike decision over Yizha, but he needs a more notable win to get the world to care again.

I'll be honest: At this point, I don't have a ton of faith left in Jenkins. GABRIEL SANTOS BY DECISION.

LIGHTWEIGHT: Tom Nolan (8-1) vs Viacheslav Borshchev (8-4-1)

There are certain points in life at which you must put your foot down. As a fan of this sport, I put up with many things. Almost all of the fighters are bigots and assholes, almost all of the promoters are unscrupulous grifters, the B-leagues are ineffective clownshows and the canonical mixed martial arts organization is a major active contributor to the dissolution of America. Combat sports take so, so very much from the world, and all they offer in return is moments of fleeting joy. If you're lucky. If you're unlucky, you find yourself emotionally invested in some random kickboxer named Slava Claus who can't defend a takedown and can't string back-to-back wins together, and you will get to watch him lose to fluffy-haired child soldiers and intermittently injured grapplers and British wrestlers, which are, by far, the most shameful kind of wrestler. They will one day march your emotional comfort fighter out to be slaughtered by a Contender Series guy named Tater McSpadden with a big size advantage and a bunch of knockouts and a hometown crowd and they will ask you to smile and accept it.

I will not accept it. I ask very little of this sport, but faith given must also be faith renewed. Sobek, you crocodilian motherfucker, you will give me this knockout or I will singlehandedly bring back Slamball and fulfill the dread sportswriter prophecy of trampoline sports subsuming the UFC once and for all. VIACHESLAV BORSHCHEV BY TKO.

WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT: Wang Cong (6-1) vs Bruna Brasil (10-4-1)

I have yet to find a way to not feel insanely disrespectful referring to any professional athlete as the victim of a tune-up fight, but sometimes a fighter coming off a loss is a -450 favorite against a fighter coming off a win, and buddy, you know why. Wang Cong was supposed to be the next big thing. The UFC fed her a rookie on Road to UFC and a 1-3 fighter in her promotional debut because they knew she was going to crush both of them, and they were right. She was their next big Chinese star and they were deeply intent on keeping it that way. This past November, the UFC returned to China for the first time since 2019 and made damn sure Wang Cong was on the main card, and they put her up against Gabriella Fernandes, another 1-2 fighter who had only barely scraped by a rookie just a few months earlier. Cong was a -990 favorite. And Fernandes kicked her in the head, punched her in the jaw, dropped her and choked her out in two rounds. It was an incredible performance, it was one of the biggest upsets of the year, and as you may have surmised, the UFC has Wang Cong back out here already three months later to get her hype back and Gabriella Fernandes has yet to be rebooked. Bruna Brasil, comparatively, is a 2-2 fighter who got knocked loopy by Denise Gomes and kicked to death by Loma Lookboonmee.

This fight is not for her. WANG CONG BY TKO, but boy, it would be much, much funnier if she lost again.

BANTAMWEIGHT: Aleksandre Topuria (5-1) vs Colby Thicknesse (7-0)

We have a long tradition of less accomplished brothers making it into the UFC. Dan Miller. Dan Lauzon. Mark Hughes! This may shock you, but Aleksandre "El Cazador" Topuria is, in fact, the brother of Featherweight champion Ilia "El Matador" Topuria. Does this mean Aleksandre hasn't earned his shot at the UFC? To answer that question properly, I present you with this summary of Aleksandre's ten-year mixed martial arts career:

He fought three fights in seven weeks, got knocked out, and left the sport for six years. Then he fought three fights in three years, beat up no less than Lucas Tenório--fun fact, their fight was just barely over three years ago, and in that time Tenório has lost eleven more times, and mysteriously, almost all of them were first-round stoppages, typically in the first minute of the fight--and then, one more year-and-a-half-long hiatus later, he got into the UFC. Somehow. Does this mean he is a bad fighter? I have no fucking idea. He's got some aggressive wrestling and some solid hands, but he's been using them on ghosts. And now Colby "Slickness" Thicknesse, fighter, lover and Redditor, is an undefeated Australian champion with more experience and more proven success. He's also a +320 underdog.

Is this because of Aleksandre's tape or his surname? Who can s--it's his surname. It is his surname. It is because he is a Topuria and people know what that is. Will that be enough? Fuck, man, I don't know. Ask me anything about evaluating the strengths of fighters using Lucas Tenório as a guidepost. I'll go with COLBY THICKNESSE BY DECISION because it would make me feel warm inside.

EARLY PRELIMS: UNDERNEATH IT ALL
LIGHTWEIGHT: Kody Steele (7-0) vs Rongzhu (25-6)

Last September, I had to evaluate Rongzhu's chances of running through the man, the myth, the legend: Taco. Reclaiming the name of the beloved food from German blackface enthusiasts worldwide, Chris "Taco" Padilla overcame underdog odds and a lost first round to break Rongzhu's eye with an elbow. This was particularly bad for Rongzhu not just because ocular damage is terrifying, but because this was his second shot at the company. He got released after going 1-2 in 2021, he came back by winning the second Road to UFC Lightweight tournament, and on his first fight back, a guy named Taco broke his fucking face. That is, unfortunately, the kind of stuff that gets you stuck with Kody Steele. Aside from having parents who just tried a little too hard on the name, Kody is the rare kind of Contender Series fighter I have almost no beef with. He's low on experience, but during his thus-far short time in the sport he's fought and beat genuinely experienced, decent fighters and he's looked solid doing it. He's a talented all-around fighter who uses his striking and his wrestling in concert, he's a legitimate talent and I am legitimately intrigued to see how well he will do here.

Having said that, he will, now, lose embarrassingly. But I must stand up even in the face of my own curses. KODY STEELE BY DECISION.

WELTERWEIGHT: Jonathan Miccallef (7-1) vs Kevin Jousset (10-3)

It takes so little to knock you all the way down the ladder if you are not of the anointed. Kevin Jousset managed to win two fights against more popular, experienced fighters in 2023, and that winning streak ultimately earned him the chance to get destroyed by Bryan Battle in front of a Parisian crowd. Having been knocked out, he has been busted all the way back down to early prelims and Contender Series duty. Jonathan "The Captain" Micallef is yet another Australian talent with a decent record and a cheap contract, and at this point, that's enough. He likes to throw his kicks from his back leg, he's got solid drive on his takedowns, and like so many fighters, he has problems with responding to getting punched in the face by retreating directly backwards without moving his head or arms.

He's genuinely decent and he's got some slick moves on the ground, but I'm not sure he's got enough to stop Jousset. KEVIN JOUSSET BY DECISION.

LIGHTWEIGHT: Anshul Jubli (7-1) vs Quillan Salkilld (7-1)

Look. I am not saying losing a fight makes a fighter bad. I would never. Anshul Jubli is only 30 and he's got a decent all-around game, he has worlds of potential. But when you go from arguably winning two rounds of a fight to getting knocked out in the third because your opponent is barking at you like a dog? When you lose your undefeated streak because you're not sure how to deal with Mike Breeden yelling "USA" between chucking hooks at you? That's a loss you have to mentally come back from. Fun fact: Despite knocking Jubli out, the UFC decided not to keep Breeden under contract. Sorry, man who combo-killed another man while making cartoon noises and chanting in mid-fight: You are insufficiently marketable. But Quillan Salkilld? That's a name you can set your watch to.

My watch says there's only one fight left and I want so badly to be done. QUILLAN SALKILLD BY SUBMISSION.

FLYWEIGHT: Hyun Sung Park (9-0) vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (8-1)

This is a fight between a South Korean fighter nicknamed "Peace of Mind" and a Mongolian fighter nicknamed "Art of Knockout" and for that alone, you should probably watch it. You may remember Park as the Flyweight champion of the first Road to UFC tournament--or you might not, which, frankly, would be understandable--and he broke his submission streak by knocking out Shannon Ross with a vicious body shot in his first post-tournament fight back in December of 2023. Which is cool! Except Shannon Ross was on a three-fight knockout loss streak, which is slightly less impressive. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel was a guest on the second Road to UFC, participating in side bouts but not the tournament proper, and his two wins there were enough to get him to the big show anyway. He came close to beating Carlos Hernandez this past November--including a flash knockdown just seconds before the fight ended--but he still lost a split decision and his chance to make a good first impression.

Primarily, I'm just jazzed to see what will probably be a great fucking fight. It's Flyweight and anything could happen, but HYUN SUNG PARK BY DECISION feels likelier.