God damn it.
MAIN EVENT: GOD DAMN IT
LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Islam Makhachev (26-1, Champion) vs Renato Moicano (20-5-1, #10)
It's not Islam's fault, of course. He hasn't ducked any competition, he hasn't avoided any challengers, he's been more than happy to take on whoever the UFC sends his way, but a combination of the company's choices, the logjam at the top of the 155-pound rankings and some out-and-out bad luck have made his run as champion a bit odd.
(...)
This is Islam Makhachev's fourth title defense. He has the chance to etch his name into the history books as the most successful 155-pound champion in UFC history. And it is only now, his fourth time out, that he finally has the opportunity to defend his title against his division's top contender.
Hey, y'all. Guess what fucking happened.
Just around weigh-in time on Friday afternoon, the UFC announced Arman Tsarukyan's back is screwed up and he cannot make it to tomorrow's main event. But don't worry, because as you may recall from Colby Covington's weigh-in as a title alternate in 2023 and Tom Aspinall's public appearance as the alternate for Jones/Miocic, the company takes its championship bouts incredibly seriously and they would never let one pass without a backup fighter on hand to fill in on the off-chance that one of the headliners couldn't make it!
In completely unrelated news, there is no alternate and Renato Moicano is now fighting for the Lightweight Championship of the World.
That whole 'Islam Makhachev can break the Lightweight title defense record and also finally fight his own top contender' thing? Out the window. It's the #10 guy. It's the second consecutive man who has proceeded directly to an Islam Makhachev title fight thanks to a victory over Benoît Saint Denis, the #12-ranked man in the division. I do not say that as a statement of changing condition: He was ranked #12 before he fought Dustin Poirier, he was still ranked #12 after he lost to Dustin Poirier, and now that he has additionally lost to Renato Moicano, he is, still, ranked #12.
Because the rankings do not matter. The matchmaking barely matters. Beneil Dariush being a higher-ranked opponent who has actually defeated multiple people in the top ten doesn't matter. Renato Moicano's exciting! He does submissions! He makes the funny interviews! He costs a lot less money to bookis a good company man! Who could honestly say beating Drew Dober, Jalin Turner and Benoît Saint Denis doesn't tee you up for an obvious title shot?
Yeah. I dunno. Are you into this? I'm not into this. I have trouble imagining being into this for any reason other than the memes and/or a deep appreciation for nihilism. I'm more interested in the conspiracy theories about Arman covering up a blown weight cut than analyzing Arman vs Renato because it seems like it's just such a Puncher's Chance kind of fight.
Like, who has, traditionally, beaten Renato Moicano across his career? People who can outpunch him on the feet or people who can control him with superior grappling. We watched Rafael Fiziev and Chan Sung Jung shut his lights out and we saw Rafael dos Anjos fucking destroy him just a couple years ago with a combination of tight boxing and power-wrestling.
A couple months later we watched Islam Makhachev outgrapple Charles Oliveira. Less than a year ago we watched Islam Makhachev come up even on boxing exchanges with Dustin Poirier. Is Moicano going to suddenly find a technically accurate boxing rhythm that stymies Islam's body kicks and left hooks? Is Moicano going to outwrestle Makhachev when he went 2 for 6 on Jalin Turner? Renato Moicano has yet to submit anyone from the bottom in his mixed martial arts career: Is this going to be the fight where he suddenly turns out to have the triangle choke of death?
The most theoretically exciting part of this fight is how stupid it is, and how, by opening the portal to the dimension where nothing makes sense, anything can happen. Maybe Islam spent the last three months training specifically for Arman's double-legs and now he's going to be susceptible to Moicano's takedowns and then he hits his head on the floor and gets concussed and forgets how his grappling game works so Moicano chokes him out while he's trying to remember what math is and then during his post-fight interview Moicano talks about how only dedication to the plutarchy can save the gold standard and incoming Secretary of the Treasury Literally The Guy From Monopoly says 'by jove, he's right' and we abruptly retool the American tax system to impose 90% rates on anyone making five figures or less and we finally enter a new age of prosperity where every building that turns into a Spirit Halloween in October spends the other eleven months of the year occupied by payday loan companies that want to help Americans afford loaves of bread again.
And it'll all be because Arman Tsarukyan's back could not carry the weight of a pay-per-view.
ISLAM MAKHACHEV BY SUBMISSION seems pretty likely. I could also see him warily body-kicking Moicano for twenty-five minutes because he doesn't want to risk the x-factor, but in the end, I don't think he's going to have a lot of trouble getting Renato down and I think he'll get to the choke eventually. And god help me for what we'll get to hear from the internet if Moicano somehow wins.
But, hey, I'm sure Beneil Dariush has some kind of fun replacement fight, right?
LIGHTWEIGHT: Beneil Dariush (22-6-1, #9) vs They Didn't Book A Replacement (0-0 (74), NR)
Fuck you.