CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 115: A WORD FROM OUR SPONSORS

UFC 306: O'Malley vs Dvalishvili

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14 FROM THE SPHERE IN LAS VEGAS
EARLY PRELIMS 4:30 PM PDT / 7:30 PM EDT | PRELIMS 5 PM / 8 PM | MAIN CARD 7 PM / 10 PM

In some ways this is the UFC's second-most promoted event of the year, and in others, it is a massive failure of promotion. Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili is a really, really good fight. Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko may not ultimately be a lot of fun, but it is the ending (hopefully) of the biggest title trilogy in women's MMA history.

Nobody is talking about either of those fights. Not even the UFC is talking about those fights. Unlike UFC 300, when it comes to this event the UFC isn't even talking about itself. This isn't being advertised as UFC 306, it's not the next episode of The Suga Show; even its focus on the heritage of Mexican combat sports took a backseat after last year's headliner Alexa Grasso was demoted to the co-main.

No, this is--as the company has painstakingly and repeatedly reminded us--RIYADH SEASON PRESENTS NOCHE UFC AT THE SPHERE. Exponentially more time has gone into hyping up this exhibition of Mexican History, as crafted in collaboration between the UFC's video production team and the engineers behind the newest attraction in Vegas, a Ball With Screens On It, brought to you by The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, than has into reminding you that some of the best fighters in the world also happen to be present.

But not many of them, because the UFC got so into the production of this show they forgot to actually pay enough money for fights. At just ten bouts, this is the lightest scheduled card in years. No scratches for missed weight, no last-minute cancellations: They designed it this way on purpose.

Don't worry. I am told the video packages will be amazing.

it's just so dainty.

MAIN EVENT: SELF-FULFILLING STARDOM
BANTAMWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Sean O'Malley (18-1 (1), Champion) vs Merab Dvalishvili (17-4, #1)

Do we just skip to the end where I pick Merab like anyone who's ever read anything I've written knows I will?

To some extent, talking about this feels like retreading all the things I've said about both men over the last two and a half years. Sean O'Malley earned his championship but not his contendership, Merab Dvalishvili should've had his shot at the belt two years ago, Dana White spits on your dreams, Tekashi69 should not be an aspirational figure for anyone.

None of this is new ground. Anyone paying attention is well aware of how screwy the UFC has let the Bantamweight division become. For anyone who hasn't paid said attention, rather than going over all of it all over again, let's simplify it down to a direct comparison. Over the last two years, both of these men have fought three times, in the process gaining indisputable roles as the champion and top contender. For Sean O'Malley, those three fights were:

• Petr Yan, 1 for his last 3, who most of the world agrees beat O'Malley only to lose a decision anyway

• Aljamain Sterling, world champion, which is a huge win compromised only by the UFC forcing Aljo into the cage too fast

• Marlon Vera, the #5 contender, who was on a one-fight winning streak and arguably shouldn't have won that either

For Merab Dvalishvili?

• José Aldo, one of the greatest of all time, on a three-fight winning streak that included, uh, Marlon Vera

• Petr Yan, who took the most one-sided loss of his entire career in the fight

• Henry Cejudo, former double champ, fresh off a tight split decision loss to then-champion Aljo

It's a pretty stark contrast, but it's also a pretty stark picture of the state of the division. The champion got his title shot off marketing and screwjobs and immediately resorted to defending it against people who didn't deserve the opportunity because the company saw more money in it; the #1 contender cemented his status by beating a legend on the verge of retirement and two men coming off losses because there was no one left at the top for him to defeat.

And yet, I must admit Sean O'Malley makes me a hypocrite.

It's tough, after a certain point, not to hold this against a fighter. Before he was knocking people stupid as a greatest-ever hall-of-famer, the internet called him "Decision" Dan Henderson because they were mad he beat Ninja Rua. You can't fix the judges, but by god, you can get mad at the person who benefits.

It is not Sean O'Malley's fault he has enjoyed preferential treatment from the UFC. Sean O'Malley didn't bury his own TKO loss to Chito. Sean O'Malley didn't ignore his eye-poke No Contest over #9 Pedro Munhoz and elevate himself to a #1 contendership bout anyway. Sean O'Malley didn't order Aljamain Sterling to defend his title every three months despite injuries while simultaneously deciding it's fine for Sean O'Malley to sit out almost an entire year patiently waiting for his title shot.

Sean O'Malley also did not make Merab Dvalishvili win ten fights in a row to get the same opportunity. Sean O'Malley didn't make Merab lose a tenuous split decision to Frankie Saenz, and he especially didn't make Merab get ruled out on a technical submission that was only scored retroactively after the fight had ended, which remains one of the most baffling fucking decisions I have ever seen in mixed martial arts.

All of these things were situations birthed by the structure and management of the sport. None of them were Sean O'Malley's explicit doing, and just as it was for Dan Henderson and Vanessa Demopoulos, it is unfair for me to hold any of that against Sean O'Malley himself.

But it's not my fault Sean O'Malley is using his stardom to cape for Andrew Tate and Donald Trump while making himself a walking billboard for a pedophile, either, so in this one particular circumstance I'm going to continue to be at peace with my loathing.

If anything, this event feels perfect for him. The UFC has gone out of its way to astroturf O'Malley at every phase of his career, he's been treated like a huge deal since his rookie days in the promotion, he had the red carpet rolled out for his trip to the top of the ranks, the instant replay of his title victory was brought to you by a sponsored promotion featuring Sean O'Malley. They have tried as hard as possible to make Sean O'Malley a superstar.

But so much of that effort amounts to simply saying that he is, in fact, a superstar. They even paid Chael fuckin' Sonnen to say it on his show. This show was built up around him--but it isn't even about him. "Sean O'Malley is the only superstar big enough for The Sphere" was Dana White's line explaining why the Noche UFC Tribute To The Beauty Of Mexico was being headlined by a Guy From Montana Named Sean, but as it happens, he was wrong, because the show hasn't actually sold out even after ticket prices were dropped 50-60% across the board. Almost as though simply repeatedly saying someone is a star does not, in fact, make them a star.

It is, however, an awful lot more than they've ever done for Merab. The UFC never forgave him for the twin sins of a) unrepentantly wrestling and b) refusing to fight training partner and friend Aljamain Sterling while he was on top. Merab's a funny guy who self-promotes across social media with dopey skits, but he also has one finish in his last twelve fights and as far as I know he hasn't even tried saying sexist or homophobic things on television, so really, what more could the UFC possibly do to promote him? They've tried nothing and they're all out of ideas.

It's a great fight. It's a legitimate challenge between the legitimate champion and his legitimate #1 contender. It's a fantastic clash of styles. It's an oil-and-water meeting of personalities and it's the long-term story of a man avenging his friend.

And the only time Dana White has mentioned Merab Dvalishvili's name in the last six weeks involved complaining about him posting pictures of an eyebrow cut on Twitter.

Once again: I am, obviously, going to pick Merab. It would be a betrayal of everything good and correct not to. But this is an incredibly dangerous fight for him. Merab tends to enter into his smothering wrestling performances by tanking punches with his face, to the point that he got stung by Henry goddamn Cejudo in his last fight. O'Malley is one of the fastest, most accurate punchers in the sport, and he's also throwing said punches from almost half a foot higher in the air. The usual tactic of taking a punch to land in the clinch is a massive liability.

But O'Malley also thrives on space. He does not like fighters who are active in the clinch, he likes landing a knee or elbow, sliding out, and returning to potshots and combinations. If he can't keep Merab at a distance, he's going to be grated into the fence and defending takedowns for 25 minutes.

As stated: MERAB DVALISHVILI BY DECISION. But I have the same sinking feeling I do every time Sean O'Malley fights, and it's the feeling of watching the ocean rise to pull my tired bones back to their ancestral home.

CO-MAIN EVENT: PRAYING FOR NO SHADOW
WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Alexa Grasso (16-3-1, Champion) vs Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1, #1)

When I look at this fight, all I can feel is the terrible fear we're not actually done.

When Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko first fought, it was March of 2023 and Jon Jones was about to somehow make the Heavyweight division even worse, which might be the most impressive achievement of his entire career. Valentina was the long-standing champion and -900 favorite, Alexa was the overlooked +575 underdog challenger, and the world largely expected another dominant yet not particularly memorable victory on Shevchenko's part.

The world was almost right! Shevchenko was up on all scorecards and had all of the momentum in her favor heading into the fourth round. But she pulled a Chris Weidman special, threw one of those pointless spinkicks people have been mad about her spamming for years, and immediately had her back taken for her trouble. Seconds later she submitted for the first time in her career, and the nine-fight winning streak, seven-fight championship reign and top-ten title run in UFC history came to an abrupt end.

An awful lot of that aforementioned world was pretty jazzed about it, too. A lot of Valentina fatigue had set in with the internet fanbase. Some of it was earned--her performances weren't always inspiring--some of it was the antipathy that grows from dominating a division for years at a time.

But no one really blinked when they announced an instant rematch. Long-reigning champions getting rematches is practically tradition, the UFC for whatever reason was positively allergic to giving any of their Women's Flyweight contenders a shot at the top, and with their Mexican champion secured, the UFC was ready to put on a Part Two as the lynchpin of the Noche UFC experiment in finally capturing the Mexican market they'd doggedly pursued for an entire decade.

So six months later they fought again. And it made everything worse.

It was an extremely close fight that split media scorecards right down the middle. A lot of folks think Grasso should have won; I am not one of them, but I don't deny the argument. Unfortunately, the judges fucked it up for both sides. Junichiro Kamijo scored a 48-47 for Grasso, Sal D'Amato scored a 48-47 for Shevchenko, and Michael Bell, the crucial swing vote, scored a 47-47 draw, which was only possible because he, inexplicably, scored a 10-8 round 5 for Alexa Grasso. 10-8s, for those who do not obsessively follow the sport, are awarded for dominant, one-sided rounds. Valentina actually outlanded Alexa on significant strikes before getting taken down and threatened with a submission that she ultimately escaped.

Were it not for that utterly undeserved 10-8 Valentina Shevchenko would have won a split decision and regained the belt. In a better sport, this would have been a scandal. In combat sports, it barely raised an eyebrow. After all: Why not just fucking do it again?

Only this time, let's make it take an entire goddamn year, because we have The Ultimate Fighter 32 (jesus christ) to film.

Thanks to a deeply unfortunate internet bet, I watched and reviewed this entire goddamn season of TUF. Valentina was a gun nut, Alexa was barely present, people got into a fight over basketball, and ultimately, the MOST INTERNATIONAL TALENT SEARCH IN TUF HISTORY ended with, unsurprisingly, a Brazilian all-arounder and an American wrestler winning the show. The time was not openly wasted, but it was tinged with a persistent sense of futility.

That futility has not faded at all by seeing this rematch get delayed by an entire year only to wind up playing second fiddle on the event series it created.

And it haunts me, in the sense that this fight, itself, could easily be futile.

We have seen these two women fight twice, and three things are true:

• Valentina has controlled most of both fights, but cannot stop paying for dumb mistakes.

• Valentina was on her way to winning the first fight before being derailed by one of said mistakes.

• Valentina failed to make said mistake again in the rematch, and would have won were it not for a judge making a dumb mistake in her stead.

Alexa also visibly improved between the two fights, most particularly in her capacity to use her wrestling offensively rather than waiting to capitalize on Valentina's failures, but not enough to stay away from the precipice of damn near losing the match.

The UFC has billed this as the end of the rivalry. It could well be--if Alexa wins again, which is what they definitely want to happen. But Valentina came dangerously close to winning the first fight, and much to the internet's chagrin, Valentina rightfully should have won their second fight.

And if Valentina wins their third fight, that would make them 1-1-1 and almost guarantee us another year of winter.

I do not want to speak this dread incantation. I want this to be over. I want Manon Fiorot to get the title shot she's deserved for the last two years. I want the world to move on from the horrible memories of all of this rather than being stuck in the thrall of the Noche UFC Quadrilogy.

But with how Valentina dialed in progressively closer in the second fight, and with my having learned to expect the worst?

VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO BY DECISION, and then we have some other, even worse reality show for the next goddamn year while the entire division sits in torpor and we do this all the fuck over again.

MAIN CARD: WE'RE STILL DOING THIS, HUH
FEATHERWEIGHT: Brian Ortega (16-3 (1), #3) vs Diego Lopes (25-6, #12)

I get that the UFC hates unfinished business, but it's baffling that this fight is still happening.

Let's recap for a second. This fight was initially scheduled at the end of June, but it was a short-notice fight--not because of injury replacements, but because the UFC simply threw it together at the last minute. Which was a pain in the ass for Brian Ortega, the #3 ranked Featherweight in the world, who had already made plans to abdicate the division and debut as a Lightweight at this very card. But the UFC decided to throw him in with Diego Lopes instead in a desperate attempt to make up for blatantly lying to people about Conor McGregor fighting that weekend. Unfortunately, Ortega got sick the night before the fight, doctors ruled him out the next day, and Lopes famously fought Dan Ige instead, who took the fight with three hours to prepare.

This was treated as a massive example of the pride and awesomeness of the sport rather than a massive structural failure of its biggest organization, because the house always wins.

But whatever. Whatever! It happened! Lopes beat Ige, so he got a top fifteen victory in the division, and Ortega gets to go back to his original plan of fighting at Lightweight, and everyone moves on. Right?

No! We're still fucking doing this! Brian Ortega is still planning to move to Lightweight, Diego Lopes is not, and we're still fucking doing this! There were two and a half months to do anything other than this, and we're still fucking doing this.

What did I say last time this fight almost happened?

This is a great fight between two exceptional fighters with well-matched skillsets. It's also the matchmaking equivalent of Sam Neill's hysterical breakdown at the end of In the Mouth of Madness. Brian Ortega is putting his ranking at risk, but it doesn't matter because he was giving it up anyway. Diego Lopes, a very good fighter who was gaining great, organic momentum, is getting the chance to ignore the entire Featherweight rankings and wind up somehow ahead of the man who already beat him.

And the best-case scenario here is Lopes wins, becomes a hot new top contender at Featherweight, and then, just as Ortega predicted, he spends the next year and a half of his life either fighting down in the rankings--like, say, an Evloev rematch--or twiddling his thumbs and watching his momentum slip away while the genuinely necessary championship fights between the titans of the division take place.

And all of this was put together in two weeks because Conor McGregor's toe hurt.

BRIAN ORTEGA BY SUBMISSION. I'm rooting for worst-case scenarios this week.

Conor McGregor's toe hopefully feels fine by now, but I'm sticking with expecting the worst.

LIGHTWEIGHT: Daniel Zellhuber (15-1) vs Esteban Ribovics (13-1)

Daniel Zellhuber is on the cusp of being a Thing, and the UFC wants him to finish the job. They've had big plans for the man ever since his 2021 Contender Series win, but he immediately lost his hype and his undefeated streak to the perpetually unmarketed Trey Ogden and management's had Zellhuber in rebuilding mode ever since. It's not that his opponents have been bad--on the contrary, each was a solid test. But they were all a little compromised. Lando Vannata's a tricky fighter; he was also coming off a loss and 3 for his last 10. Christos Giagos is a tough customer; he had just snapped a losing streak and would quickly be 1 for his last 5. Francisco Prado was 1-1 after being unable to beat Jamie Mullarkey. Zellhuber was a favorite in every fight because that was the company's open intention.

The odds are just as favorable to him here, but it is, at least, a step in the right direction. Esteban Ribovics was a sort of second chance for the UFC to get a Zellhuber--another undefeated, highly-regarded prospect from the Latin fighting market (though Argentina this time, as opposed to Zellhuber's Mexico) who rolled into the Contender Series, made short work of his opponent and leapt right into the UFC as another potential knockout-friendly marketing darling. Just like Zellhuber, he immediately dropped his 0 after losing his debut to a tough, gritty wrestler, this time Loik Radzhabov, and just like Zellhuber, he was fed a diet of slightly compromised opponents to rebuild his profile. But kicking Terrance McKinney's head off in half a minute is, in fairness, a pretty great way to get there.

Having said that, DANIEL ZELLHUBER BY DECISION. He's taller, he's rangier, he's got a goddamn 8" reach advantage, and his scrambling front chokes are an excellent defense for Ribovics' attempts to close the distance. I doubt he'll get him out of there, but I doubt it'll be close.

FLYWEIGHT: Ronaldo Rodríguez (16-2) vs Ode' Osbourne (12-7)

They changed him from Luis Rodríguez to Ronaldo Rodríguez since last we saw him, but "Lazy Boy" is still a top-tier nickname either way. Ronaldo's Contender Series loss in 2020 kept him on the company's radar, and that meant after five wins--the last a truly incredible injury stoppage over the truly incredible, 11-11 Ángel Rodríguez, because never forget regional fight scenes are above all a farce--Ronaldo got to cruise into the UFC and face Denys Bondar this past February. Rough fight, great back-and-forth effort for both men, but at the end of the day Bondar made the crucial mistake of thinking heel hooks work in the UFC and got flipped and choke out for his troubles.

Ode' Osbourne is in a much less promising position. As he barrels towards five years as a UFC Flyweight, Ode' is a whopping 4-5 and struggling to stay on the roster. More damningly, those five losses were all one-sided stoppages, and three of them came in just his last four fights. Aside from a split decision scrape against Charles Johnson back in early 2023, it's been nothing but disaster for Osbourne over the past two years--knocked out by Tyson Nam, choked out by Asu Almabayev, rolled in a single round by Jafel Filho. He's on pink slip duty and he knows it, but fighting with the kind of panicked urgency that tends to create has gotten him knocked stiff in the past.

Osbourne's still good, and it's entirely possible for him to outpoint Ronaldo and save his job. That does not make RONALDO RODRÍGUEZ BY SUBMISSION feel any less likely.

PRELIMS: A FEATHERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP FIGHT IN A BETTER WORLD
WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT: Irene Aldana (15-7, #5) vs Norma Dumont (11-2, #9)

This could easily have been a 145-pound title fight if the division still existed. This should be a main card fight, given that it's a top-five contest with serious contendership implications, but heaven forfend we don't put Ronaldo Rodríguez on pay-per-view. Irene Aldana has a new lease on life in a post-Amanda Nunes world. Her shot at Nunes was the kind of one-sided thrashing that makes it awfully hard to talk the world into giving you another bite at the apple, but with Nunes seemingly committed to retirement, Aldana gets to be the prominent contender whose only losses in the last eight years came to world champions, and after winning a fight-of-the-year candidate against Karol Rosa her last time out, her argument for a seat at the table is hard to deny. Norma Dumont is here for justice. Dumont was the UFC's best non-Nunes Featherweight, save one close split decision against Macy Chiasson she hasn't lost a fight in almost five years, and she was twiddling her fingers waiting for a shot at the champ when the UFC decided to just throw the belt in the trash can instead. This past April she made the 135-pound Bantamweight limit for the first time since 2018, fought and fairly easily dominated the returning ex-champion Germaine de Randamie. She's here to throw one-twos and grate opponents into the fence and be an implacable force for decision-centric good.

And goddammit, I want revenge for her lost title opportunity. NORMA DUMONT BY DECISION.

LIGHTWEIGHT: Manuel Torres (15-2) vs Ignacio Bahamondes (15-5)

The Contender Series must be fed with the blood of its own victors. Both of these men were DWCS winners, Bahamondes came first, and having faltered twice, his time as a favored prospect is at an end. Realistically, after dropping a decision to John Makdessi back in 2021, the company probably should have reconsidered its path. But they rebuilt him, and marketed him, and got him just high enough to face a stiff test in the very good Ľudovít Klein, who promptly styled on him and sent him back down the card. So Bahamondes and his very long kicks now have to deal with Manuel "El Loco" Torres, who has made his way up the ladder by Punching Everybody Really Hard. His striking got him to the show, and two straight knockouts got him a stiff test against Chris Duncan, whom he upset--not by beating him, as he was a solid favorite, but by scrambling on the ground and choking Duncan out, which was a legitimate surprise.

He's got a lot of distance to make up for, though. Bahamondes is part of the new generation of giraffe-people who make 155 despite being 6'3", and he has the kicking game to show for it. Torres is at his best when he exerts pressure up close, Bahamondes is at his best working from distance and making opponents try to crash into the pocket to get through his shin-based flak field. IGNACIO BAHAMONDES BY DECISION.

WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Yazmin Jauregui (11-1) vs Ketlen Souza (14-4)

On the topic of prospects being rebuilt, we have the curious case of Yazmin Jauregui. Jauregui got an outsized amount of press during her 2022 debut against Iasmin Lucindo, as though the UFC already knew it wanted to get behind her as a potential star, and for a few months, it worked! Jauregui beat Lucindo in a great fight, and the UFC followed it up with an enormous gimme fight against Istela Nunes, whom she made short work of, and to accentuate the point they fed her the recently-troubled Denise Gomes in a fight so one-sided on paper Yazmin was a -400 favorite. Denise walked through her in twenty seconds. Back to the drawing board! An even more odds-lopsided fight with Sam Hughes later, Yazmin was back to her winning ways, and now she is--once again--a prohibitive, -550 favorite against poor Ketlen Souza. "Esquentadinha" made the traditional jump from Invicta FC champion to UFC undercard hopeful in mid-2023, and unfortunately, she met the now-top 15 Flyweight Karine Silva, who tore her goddamn knee apart. After ten months off healing and preparing Souza drew the considerably less battle-tested Marnic Mann in her comeback this past April, and she demonstrated just how outmatched Mann was in the lower echelons of the company.

I want this fight to be closer than it seems like it will be. Ketlen is good at closing the distance and getting her knuckles on-target, but she doesn't manage to carry much power through the process. While she's trying, Yazmin's likely going to eat her alive on volume alone, let alone the danger of an actual stoppage. YAZMIN JAUREGUI BY TKO.

FLYWEIGHT: Edgar Cháirez (11-5) vs Joshua Van (10-2)

Edgar Cháirez is fucking cursed. He blazes his way up the regional scene, gets signed to the UFC, and runs into the human brick wall that is about-to-fight-for-#1-contendership Tatsuro Taira. Two months later he's back for the first Noche UFC against Daniel Lacerda da Silva, only to have the fight go to a No Contest thanks to a refereeing error. They rebooked it for just one month later, and on the morning of the event Lacerda was medically ruled out of the competition. It took four more months to get the fight down on paper again, and finally both men made it to the cage, and finally, unequivocally, Cháirez submitted Lacerda in the first round! Except both men missed weight, Cháirez by half a damn weight class. This was supposed to be the fight that lifted the curse, giving Edgar his first non-Lacerda opponent in an entire year, and that was to be Kevin Borjas, the embattled Flyweight on a two-fight losing streak. But a week ago Borjas was scratched from the fight and replaced by Joshua Van, a 3-1 competitor with wins over such Flyweight luminaries as, uh, Kevin Borjas.

The world has simply chosen to be unkind to Edgar Cháirez, and I am sorry for its cruelty. JOSHUA VAN BY DECISION.

EARLY PRELIMS: ALL BY MYSELF
BANTAMWEIGHT: Raul Rosas Jr. (9-1) vs Aoriqileng (25-11 (1))

So, yeah, this card has an Early Prelims section with only one fight. It's an Early Prelim. I don't know if it's supposed to be a sign of faith in UFC child soldier Raul Rosas Jr. that he's got a section of the card all to himself, or a sign of lost faith that he was third from the top of Noche UFC 1 in 2023 and is only curtain-jerking Noche UFC 2 in 2024, or if the UFC is simply hoping people will notice him and care as much as they inexplicably do. In either case, he's going to win. Aoriqileng has been taken down by all but one of the UFC competitors who've bothered to try, Raul Rosas Jr. is a turbo-wrestler who the UFC has major designs on as a future superstar, and that means sacrifices must be made to appease the gods of marketing.

RAUL ROSAS JR. BY TKO. I don't know what it says about the way things are now that if you told me Raul's next fight was against an 0-2 guy like Yanis Ghemmouri or a sudden jump up to a top ten dude like Rob Font I would find both equally believable.