CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 105: THE ESCALATOR NEEDS REPAIR
CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 105: THE ESCALATOR NEEDS REPAIR
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs Taira
SATURDAY, JUNE 15 FROM THE MIRTHLESS MURK OF THE APEX
PRELIMS 4 PM PDT / 7 PM EDT | MAIN CARD 7 PM / 10 PM
As the sport drifts further and further into some particularly dark places, it becomes more and more important to celebrate the little victories. Did we just survive a 90% stinker pay-per-view? We did. Did we make it through two straight weeks of terrible Middleweight contendership matches? We did!
And now, as payment for our pain, we get a Fight Night where 85% of the card is contested at 155 pounds or below. It is a downpour of fights within The Good Weight Classes, and in times of drought, we must sometimes dance in the rain.
But I'm still gonna complain about how damp our collective feet got getting here, because as good as the good weight classes might be this is officially the 100th UFC Fight card held in the godforsaken Apex, and buddy, after one hundred of these, our socks are pretty fucking wet.
MAIN EVENT: DOING THE RIGHT THING THE WRONG WAY
FLYWEIGHT: Alex Perez (25-8, #5) vs Tatsuro Taira (15-0, #13)
This is a good fight. This could be a great fight. In a sea of constant complaints about the UFC's absolute refusal to elevate new talent and create new stars, this is an honest to god attempt to crown a potential title challenger in one of the sport's best divisions, and it's between a resurgent former contender and a rising superprospect. It's great. It's great!
Except for how we actually got here.
Let me take you back to the far, far away time of two months ago.
Alex Perez has fought three times in the last four years; in that same timeframe, he has had ten cancelled bouts. Eleven, if you include the fight the UFC originally scheduled him for this Summer but scuttled so he could save this main event. He had a single fight with Matt Schnell get rescheduled three times: Once for UFC scheduling issues, once for Schnell's health, and the third time because Perez blew his weight cut. At this point he's better known for missing fights than taking them.
Which is probably in his best interests, because he's also lost all three of those sparing appearances.
To the world's immense shock, not only did Alex Perez make it to the cage, he knocked his opponent Matheus Nicolau out in a round and a half. It was the first time Alex Perez had won a fight since 2020, the first time Alex Perez had punched a man out since 2018, and, after seven years in the company, the one and only win Alex Perez held over a fighter who is still in the UFC.
It was a real, quality victory, and it was earned in extremely impressive fashion, and Alex Perez, who is more aware of his consistency issues than anyone, wanted to capitalize on it with a real quick rebooking. Sure, it's three fights in 105 days, but fuck it, momentum is momentum. The now-#5 Alex Perez fights the #12 Tagir Ulanbekov, and everyone is happy.
But that, of course, is not what's happening.
Tatsuro Taira's entire professional career has taken place during Perez's period of perdition. Taira went through Shooto's amateur ranks like a good Japanese martial artist, graduated into the professional ranks in 2018, and has gone six straight years without missing a single step. His immaculate grappling and vicious ground-and-pound made an immediate impact on Shooto's professional ranks, and by the end of 2021 he was their undefeated Flyweight champion. With that comes a choice: Hang around the regionals, try to make your way up to Rizin, or gamble on the UFC.
An awful lot of Japanese prospects have made that gamble on the UFC and lost. Taira, thus far, is a happy exception. After two years under the company banner he's not just a perfect 5-0, he's continued to visibly evolve with each successive appearance. His wrestling defense has improved, his bottom game has improved, and he emphasized the point when last we saw him by dropping the never-knocked-out Carlos Hernandez with some fantastically accurate boxing and scoring his first UFC TKO in the process.
It's the rare case of the company handling a prospect well. He's been booked carefully, but not too gently, and having nudged him steadily closer to the top, the UFC thought he was ready to test the rankings. They booked him against the #10-ranked Tim Elliott in the hopes of getting him in the pool, but when Elliott had to pull out they rebooked him against the ultra-promising Joshua Van. Sure, it's not a ranked fight, but it's two highly-touted prospects on winning streaks, so it makes sense.
But that, of course, is not what's happening.
This is not a replacement fight. No one is stepping in for anyone on short notice. Tatsuro Taira was going to fight Joshua Van at UFC 302 two weeks ago, and Alex Perez was going to fight Tagir Ulanbekov tonight. Both fights were disassembled and swapped, and now Ulanbekov and Van are fighting each other on the prelims--you'll see it five fights down from here--and Perez and Taira are meeting in the main.
There were some theories that the UFC scrambled to replace a main event that didn't materialize in time, but truthfully, I think it's just about opportunism. One of the big strengths of the UFC's mid-2000s boom period was can't-lose matchmaking. When you have enough fighters carrying both relevance and fan interest you don't have to be scared of pitting them against each other, because no matter who loses, one of your promotional investments is paying off. Those matches, thanks largely to the UFC's much spottier planning, have become few and farbetween, but this is a prime example of the concept.
One and a half months ago, Alex Perez was a non-entity in the Flyweight division. However talented he may be, he hadn't won a fight in four years and he was known less for his appearances than his disappearances. Suddenly, he's a relevant contender with a top-five knockout victory. Tatsuro Taira is one of Flyweight's hottest prospects. He's burned through everyone they've put in his way, he's more than ready for a ranked test, and he's got a big contingent of both Japanese fans and obsessive internet fans who miss Pride FC rooting for him.
As long as someone wins this fight, the company wins, too. If Tatsuro Taira outgrapples Alex Perez, he springboards into the top five and the hype train pulls all the way into title contendership. If Alex Perez outpunches Tatsuro Taira, he caps off a career comeback with a second consecutive win over one of the few Flyweights with genuine momentum. Either way, the company gets a shiny new top prospect to enshrine.
It's good! And I'm still annoyed by it, because if it weren't so rushed it could have been great.
I don't want to stand in the way of Alex Perez's comeback, but once again, dude's about to have his third fight in 105 days. He went from getting grappled to death by Muhammad Mokaev to punching out Matheus Nicolau to fighting Tatsuro Taira at an average clip of just barely over one bout per month. After years of nothing, it's the combat sports equivalent of cramming for an exam at the last minute.
Meanwhile, Taira may be a fantastic 5-0, but he has never, ever been off the prelims. Every single fight, prelims. All but one of those five fights was on the early prelims, either one or two fights into the card. He's never been on pay-per-view, he's never been on ESPN, he's never made it to an advertised fight. He's a top prospect in his weight class and he's never been marketed.
It's an amazing matchup between a veteran returned to contendership and a hot, up-and-coming prospect, except one of them was missing in action until three months ago and one of them has never appeared in front of a televised audience, and now it's a main event and whoever wins--with Brandons #1 Royval and #2 Moreno both having lost to the champion and #3 Amir Albazi and #4 Kai Kara-France still out injured--could be the de facto top contender.
Which is the point we also return to, isn't it? The UFC's risk-averse impatience in the modern era. Sure, maybe Alex Perez could have cooked off that Ulanbekov fight first to further re-establish himself, and sure, Tatsuro Taira could have beaten Joshua Van in his main-card debut rather than being thrust straight to the top, but what if one of them lost on the way? Then this would all be for nothing! We'll push them when the time comes.
Like now. In the main event of a barely-advertised Apex card when the entire marketing engine is focused on a pay-per-view featuring Schrodinger's Irishman.
I'm not gonna beat around the bush any further than I already have: TATSURO TAIRA BY SUBMISSION. My own reports on the demise of Alex Perez were premature, as he now clearly, demonstrably has more left in the tank. But Taira isn't as recklessly aggressive as Nicolau and Perez's last three losses all came from faster, trickier or stronger grapplers. Taira's top game is one of the most dangerous in the entire damn division. It's feasible Perez sparks him, but over five rounds I see Taira getting him down and finding his neck.
CO-MAIN EVENT: OKAY
MIDDLEWEIGHT: Ikram Aliskerov (15-1) vs Antonio Trócoli (12-3)
Like, man. You couldn't have made it up to Tagir Ulanbekov and Joshua Van by letting them fight in the co-main event? It's a ranked fight! On this card!
I know, I know. Tall people. Randy Newman, you were mad at the wrong weight classes.
This fight is a co-main event for one reason, and that reason is Ikram Aliskerov. Aliskerov came through a great run in Saudi Arabia's irritatingly decent BRAVE Combat Federation, made it out of the international scene with just one single loss on his record thanks to some random nobody named Khamzat Chimaev, burst onto the Contender Series in 2022 and had the jetpack put on him damn near instantaneously.
And I mean instan-fucking-taneously. Aliskerov, who is an absolutely terrifying knockout artist, got a huge gimme fight against the knocked-out-twice-in-his-last-three-fights Phil Hawes in his UFC debut, and the absolute femtosecond that fight was over they booked him into a top ten match with Paulo Costa. When Costa couldn't make it, they settled for a top 11 match against Nassourdine Imavov. When Imavov couldn't make it, screw it: Bring in Warlley Alves, who had, once again, been stopped in two of his last three losses. Aliskerov steamrolled him, too, and the UFC wanted him in again just a few months later against Anthony Hernandez, but this time Aliskerov was the one who had to step away from bookings to rehab an injury. Did they punish him for daring to need a break?
Nope! They booked him against the just-fell-out-of-the-rankings André Muniz so a win would put him in position to challenge anyone with a number. They want this dude bad. But Muniz got hurt, and all their other ranked Middleweights are busy, so they once again reached into their bag of tricks and they pulled out Antonio Trócoli.
I have, in fact, already summarized Antonio Trócoli's entire UFC career:
So are these fights in the right order? I don't know! I hope so! As always I'm trusting Marcel Dorff's wisdom, but if they're not, and Ramiz Brahimaj is on the main card instead of Antonio Trócoli (update: as of Monday evening, Ramiz Brahimaj is, in fact, on the main card instead of Antonio Trócoli) (update: as of Tuesday evening, Antonio Trócoli is no longer on this card at all, for no announced reason), all I can do is apologize to my ancestors and wish the UFC paid their interns.
That's right! Antonio Trócoli, your co-main event star, is a veteran of zero UFC fights. This is the third attempt to book him into one and the fourth attempt to book him within the corporate banner, and it's happening with about ten days of notice, and that's pretty perfect for Trócoli's career.
If you've been reading these for any length of time, you already know the lyrics to the song I'm about to sing. He's spent most of his career in Brazilian regionals named things like "FIGHT CLUB MMA" and "FULL HOUSE BATTLE HOME" that are essentially glorified record-padding factories that had him fighting almost exclusively rookies and jobbers until his numbers got big enough for international organizations to take notice, at which point he jumped to the States to try his luck.
Unfortunately, he didn't have any. He tried the deeper waters and drowned. Hey, remember Dhiego Lima, the runner-up of The Ultimate Fighter 25 (jesus christ)? Yeah, he couldn't beat him. Here's one for the fellow oldheads in the crowd: Do you remember Jacob "Christmas" Volkmann? The UFC fighter who was in the UFC a decade and a half ago, lost fights at Lightweight and was notable only for getting the Secret Service called on him after he used a post-fight interview to awkwardly fantasize about torturing Barack Obama? Yeah! That guy! Antonio Trócoli couldn't beat him, either.
So Trócoli pulled an Alistair Overeem. He left the 170-pound division, disappeared for a year, and came back thirty-five pounds heavier and yoked out of his fucking gourd as a Light Heavyweight. Which earned him his way to the Contender Series in 2019, and one quick win later, earned him a UFC contract!
His win and contract were immediately rescinded when he shockingly tested positive for Nandralone.
But, of course, no one really cares. Trócoli served his suspension, won one more fight in Brazil against--stop me if you've heard this before--another guy who had only ever fought rookies, and the UFC brought him back immediately. And booked him. And booked him. And booked him.
He was supposed to fight Ovince St. Preux in 2022 and he pulled out. He was supposed to fight Oumar Sy last goddamn month and he pulled out. It's June of 2024, the first time the UFC tried to book Antonio Trócoli was just a few weeks why of five goddamn years ago, and somehow, we're still here, trying.
Those five years come to this. Antonio Trócoli, who has one solid victory in his entire career, is fighting with almost no notice against a guy the UFC likes so much they wanted him fighting for a top ten spot in his second match.
Antonio is not a big power puncher. He likes to shoot big doubles and grapple, and his success comes as much from his being a 6'5" giant as his talent. Ikram Aliskerov is half a foot shorter and giving up 8" in reach.
He is also a -900 favorite.
Antonio, I hope the five years were worth it. IKRAM ALISKEROV BY TKO.
MAIN CARD: INVERTED POSITIONING
LIGHTWEIGHT: Timmy Cuamba (8-2) vs Lucas Almeida (14-3)
It's been a real weird run for Timmy Cuamba, and he's technically only one fight into his UFC career. He won a Contender Series matchup back in 2023, but by committing the cardinal sin of winning by decision he voided his contract opportunity and was banished back to the regional scene until they needed a short-notice replacement. An extremely short-notice replacement. It is unfortunately not unusual for fighters to take week-notice UFC fights these days; it's pretty unusual when they already had a fucking fight at the start of said week. Cuamba fought a round and change against Michael Stack on February 2 and he was in a UFC cage on February 10. Which is the kind of thing that probably shouldn't happen. The UFC would like you to remember Cuamba for being a warrior who fought the hyped Bolaji Oki to a split decision with no time to prepare, but truthfully, he got dominated to a clear 29-28 loss and it's only thanks to yet another case of inexplicable scoring that even one judge had him up.
Lucas Almeida is his kinsman in that he, too, fought on the Contender Series, failed to get a contract and got signed anyway. Unlike Cuamba, Almeida lost in his shot at the Gong Show, but a quick regional finish and he was right back in the UFC anyhow. A 100% victory-by-finish rate and a long list of crushed names go an awful long way in the modern era, as it turns out. Almeida's high-intensity striking and aggressive choking game got his foot in the door, and an upset knockout over Michael Trizano in his debut got him a big bonus and a spotlight. As happens so often, all of the luck then proceeded to exit his body and manifest as the entirety of the combat sports universe giving him the finger. Almeida spent an entire year on the shelf because all three of his prospective opponents had to withdraw from their bookings against him, and when he finally got in the cage with Pat Sabatini he was effortlessly thrown to the canvas and dismantled in seven minutes. The UFC quickly got the message about Almeida's chances with wrestler and rebooked him against Andre Fili, one of those three fights that got away from him, in the hopes of giving Almeida a fun striking contest. It was a success--in that Almeida got dropped and pounded out in a single round.
So Almeida's popping up to 155 pounds in the hopes that cutting less weight will make him more effective. It's a gamble I think more fighters should take, honestly. LUCAS ALMEIDA BY DECISION. He hits real hard, but even if he lost the Oki fight, Cuamba showed off a solid chin and a lot of heart. I don't think he'll be able to stop Almeida from outstriking him, but I do think he'll make it to the bell.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-5) vs Miles Johns (14-2 (1))
I will never stop rooting for Douglas Silva de Andrade. DSDA crossed an entire decade in the UFC this past February and in all that time he's only 7-5 and he's clearly never getting anywhere near contendership and I will tell you, my friends, I do not in any sense of the term care. In a better world, he would be respected as though he were the Matt Brown of Bantamweight. He's tough as shit, he never stops pressuring people, and even now in his late thirties he's a weird muscle monster who takes down Said Nurmagomedov and outpunches Cody Stamann and looks all to hell like he could tear a hole in a steel wall given the time and inclination. He can fight in the UFC until he is sixty and forced to deal with 2040s-era Contender Series winners named Darren "The Baron" McFisto with undefeated records over 0-1 fighters no one can prove exists, and I will be there, cheering through my nasal cannula for his victory.
There is no such joy for Miles Johns in my heart, but nor is there distaste. After five years and eight fights in the UFC, I have only a sense of pure, beige neutrality about the man, which I cannot help feeling is somehow even worse. There is nothing wrong--well, aside from trace amounts of turinabol--with Miles "Chapo" Johns as a fighter. Like so many quality Bantamweights he's essentially good at everything. He fights a physical, wrestleboxing throwback style, he had a couple cool, big-punching knockouts a few years ago, and I am perpetually damning him with faint praise this way because in his two attempts at facing fighters who could signal a threat to the rankings he got destroyed. Mario Bautista knocked him out in 2020 and John "Sexi Mexi" Castañeda choked him out in 2022, and much like de Andrade, Johns is now floating in the sea of fighters too good to get cut, but not quite up to climbing the ladder.
Unlike de Andrade, I will not pick him to win this fight. Johns uses physicality and pressure to do a lot of his best work, and boy, it's hard to out-pressure a guy like Douglas. DOUGLAS SILVA DE ANDRADE BY DECISION.
FLYWEIGHT: Asu Almabaev (19-2) vs Jose Johnson (16-8)
I'm becoming a big Asu Almabaev fan. In an era of mixed martial arts where everyone is being subtly or non-subtly encouraged to abandon the traditional grappling arts in favor of slinging leather, my heart stands with anyone willing to shoot takedowns until it works and some motherfucker is on the floor. Almabaev's only been in the company since last August, and, possibly because of this approach, he's sort of working his way backwards. He made his debut against the once-ranked Ode' Osbourne and choked him out easily, he was rewarded for his victory with a match against the 3-3 journeyman CJ Vergara, whom he outwrestled handily, and now, for his third fight, he faces the 1-1 Jose Johnson. As always: The rankings are made up, the points don't matter, and I do nothing but drive myself ever-closer to a substance abuse problem by caring.
But boy, Johnson sure is a weird fit here. "Lobo Solitario" got signed to the UFC off a Contender Series victory all the way back in mid-2022 only to spend the entirety of the next year dealing with medical issues. When he finally fought in the UFC proper in the Summer of 2023 he became one of the season's best highlights, but unfortunately for him, he was on the wrong end of the reel. Da'Mon Blackshear scored just the third circuitously spine-cranking Twister submission in UFC history, and Jose's was the spine he ground to make his bread. Johnson is now in the terrible category of fighters who have to fight back from the coolest moment of their careers being a thing that happened to them, as opposed to a thing they did to someone else. He managed to choke out Chad Anheliger in November, but it's going to take more than that.
He's almost certainly not getting it here. On paper, one would think Johnson should have a ridiculous advantage here. He's 6' to Asu's 5'4", he's got half a foot of reach on him, he should be able to beat him through sheer mass and striking volume alone. Johnson has also been taken down by every single opponent he's faced under the UFC's banner--multiple times. Unless he can use his height and reach to lamp Asu on his way in, he's going for a whole bunch of rides, and the roller coaster will not stop until he wants off. ASU ALMABAEV BY SUBMISSION.
WELTERWEIGHT: Josh Quinlan (6-2 (1)) vs Adam Fugitt (9-4)
The UFC had a lot of plans for Josh Quinlan, and boy, those plans have not worked out at all. One of the most fascinating parts of the Contender Series is seeing who the company is willing to put their thumb on the scale for, and Quinlan was one of their most visible cases. He won his contract fight by knockout, but immediately tested positive for steroids: The UFC signed him anyway and waited for his suspension to end. His UFC debut had to be postponed when he, once again, tested positive for (trace amounts!) of steroids: They kept it anyway, fed him an easy knockout victory and advertised him more than any of their other prelim fighters. He was pushed straight to the top of the prelims for his next fight: He lost. He was boosted up again to a pay-per-view prelim berth: He got knocked out. And now, as a 1-2 (1) fighter on a two-fight prelim losing streak, he is here on a main card against a guy who got stopped in his two UFC losses.
Adam Fugitt is on the opposite end of this spectrum. He wasn't a Contender Series pickup or a TUF veteran, he's a regional fighter the UFC called up on short notice because they desperately wanted hyped Contender Series prospect Michael Morales to stay on a pay-per-view even if it meant booking him into a fight so pointless he was a -650 favorite. Fugitt's next fight was against a man who'd just won on the Contender Series too, this time Japanese prospect Yusaku Kinoshita, only Fugitt pulled the upset, yoinked him to the mat and elbowed him to death. The UFC rewarded him for this stellar performance by throwing him in against Mike Malott, their--be shocked--Contender Series winner and top Canadian prospect in a fight third from the top of a pay-per-view in Canada. It's never subtle, but's usually kind of funny in a kicking-yourself-in-the-ass kind of way.
And I'm going with ADAM FUGITT BY DECISION anyway. They're trying to figure out whether to cut bait on Josh Quinlan, and I just haven't seen enough from him to think he'll take this one. He swings wild, he doesn't use his energy or range all that wisely, his takedown defense isn't great, and his big knockout win came against a guy who, respectfully, took almost all of his losses by knockout. He hits like a truck, but his mileage isn't much better.
PRELIMS: FORMERLY SCHEDULED FOR THE MAIN EVENT
FLYWEIGHT: Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2, #12) vs Joshua Van (10-1, NR)
And here, we have the consolation prize. Sorry, your opponents are too important so they're in the main event now, but you get to be the prelim headliner, so it's all okay. Get excited. Tagir Ulanbekov is a top fifteen Flyweight, his only loss in five UFC fights is the eternally tricky Tim Elliott, he's never been finished, he's barely even been hurt, and he comes from the same Dagestani wrestling factory that's been flooding the combat spots world with hard-scrabble grapplers who throw weirdly loose strikes because they know if it doesn't work they're just going to take you down anyway. Joshua Van is a prospect having a real difficult time staying booked. He traded in his Fury FC Flyweight Championship for a one-week's-notice fight in the UFC, he had an exceptional rookie year that included three victories in just a hair over six months, and his 2024 has been a story of constant rebookings. He was supposed to meet Lucas Rocha in April; Rocha got hurt. He was scheduled for Sumudaerji; Sumudaerji pulled out. The UFC set him up against Tatsuro Taira, then thought better of it and did this instead.
But that doesn't make it a bad fight. It's a solid defense of a berth in the edge of the rankings. Van's proven himself to be a serious prospect for the division, but his closest scrapes with defeat have come from aggressive wrestling offense, and it's hard to get more aggressive than Ulanbekov. I lean towards TAGIR ULANBEKOV BY DECISION but I wouldn't be surprised if Van outworks him and keeps him at bay.
FLYWEIGHT: Jimmy Flick (17-7) vs Nate Maness (15-3)
Jimmy Flick is finally back on track. Flick is most famous for specifically not fighting. He won a Contender Series contract, scored an insane flying triangle choke over Cody Durden in his UFC debut, and promptly retired from the sport. It sucked, it was horrible for his body, MMA doesn't give you health benefits or any real life security and it pays like shit, he wanted to spend time with his wife and daughters. Honestly: Happy ending, which is too rare for the sport. And then over the next 25 months he got divorced and decided he wanted to come back so his kids could see him fight, whereupon he spent all of 2023 getting brutally knocked out twice in a row. Happy endings rarely last in MMA. But he started this year by choking out Malcolm Gordon in the latter's retirement fight, and now, lifted by a win, he's ready to fight a prospect again. Nate Maness is in the same mathematical boat, but he's been sailing that boat progressively down the great stream of weight classes. He joined the UFC as a Featherweight, then he fought at a 140-pound catchweight for a night, then he took two fights at Bantamweight, and after getting completely dominated by Umar Nurmagomedov he finished his drop down to Flyweight. Unfortunately: Flyweight also has Dagestani wrestlers. Our previous paragraph partner Tagir Ulanbekov choked Maness out in half a round, and it's only in his last fight against Mateus Mendonça that Maness finally averted his two-class, two-fight, two-year slide and got back in the winner's circle.
The oddsmakers have Maness as an enormous favorite in this fight, and honestly, it's hard to blame them. He hits an awful lot harder and he's a solid grappler in his own right, and more importantly, we just saw Flick get destroyed twice by similarly solid fighters. With all of the respect in the world to Malcolm Gordon, he seemed to be on his way out before he even stepped in the cage. NATE MANESS BY TKO.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Brady Hiestand (7-2) vs Garrett Armfield (10-3)
This fight is my opportunity to apologize to Garrett Armfield. Garrett was essentially set up for failure by the UFC. He made his debut as a short-notice fill-in against David Onama, who was not only a big, hyped prospect, but one that had already fought and beaten Armfield when they were still amateurs. But Armfield spent an entire year on the shelf after Onama wiped the floor with him for a second time, and I allowed his loss to inhabit the entirety of that void, and upon his return, all I could see and feel was the bitter memory of his defeat. But I am the one who has been defeated. I picked against Garrett in both of his subsequent fights, and both times, his solid boxing and defensive wrestling proved me a fool. I have been slain on the arm field, and I must rise as thrall to my captor. Brady Hiestand, meanwhile, is trying to return from the void. Hiestand was the runner-up on The Ultimate Fighter 29 (meme catchphrase) back in 2021, and he, too, followed up his UFC loss by rifling off two fairly impressive victories, the first over Fernie Garcia and the second against Danaa Bategerel, but, as happens so often, he promptly hit the injury skids and lost all his momentum sitting on the couch for the last 14 months.
I am through doubting Garrett Armfield. His combinations make me happy and gosh darn it, I want to be happy when I watch mixed martial arts. GARRETT ARMFIELD BY DECISION and I swear to god if the universe does that thing where I finally pick someone and they get the shit kicked out of them I will review this season of The Ultimate Fighter while weeping uncontrollably.
WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT: Carli Judice (3-1) vs Gabriella Fernandes (8-3)
Last year, I told you the story of Ernesta Kareckaite, a Contender Series competitor who won a close split decision and got signed anyway on account of being a) a striker and b) a Contender Series competitor in 2024, where damn near everyone gets signed eventually. As further proof of this new reality, we have "Crispy" Carli Judice, the woman she beat. She is 3-1, she has never beaten a fighter with more wins than losses, and she's in the UFC anyway, because she, too, is a striker, and if you're willing to throw more headkicks than double-legs, by god, come on in. Gabriella Fernandes is decidedly not a Contender Series veteran, and consequently, she is fighting to keep her job. She--jesus fucking christ, I'm tired of these sentences. These same sentences, over and over. She was a last-minute pickup the UFC used to keep Jasmine Jasudavicius on a card, and Jasudavicius was a Contender Series veteran, and then she was sent in as a +200 underdog to rehab Tereza Bledá, who was a Contender Series veteran, and now she's here against a Contender Series veteran, and at some point in the distressingly near future there won't be anyone who isn't a fucking Contender Series veteran and I will be free in the same way Winston was free at the end of 1984.
GABRIELLA FERNANDES BY SUBMISSION. I feel so tired all of the time.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Jeka Saragih (14-3) vs Westin Wilson (16-9)
At this point this feels like promotional malpractice.
Westin Wilson got yanked off the regional circuit on short notice to fight Joanderson Brito in 2023. At the time, I summarized it thusly:
I have immense respect for anyone who fights. It's tough as shit and deeply underappreciated. But we also have to be realistic about strength of schedule and preparation, and objectively, Westin Wilson has spent the last two years fighting in can-crushing federations against guys with 9-19 records. Brief internet sensation Teruto Ishihara, who got cut from the UFC after losing three in a row--at bantamweight--knocked Wilson cold in one round less than a year ago.
Wilson was not prepared. He got beaten on significant strikes 22-4, rolled for a bad kneebnar, and got pounded flat in three minutes.
Five months later, the UFC brought him back. Once again, I was not thrilled:
Wilson's karate style was less Lyoto Machida and more Zane Frazier. Does it mean Wilson is a bad fighter? Of course not. Joanderson Brito is a bad motherfucker and there's no shame in getting knocked out by him. Does it mean the UFC is going to do him any favors and give him more favorable matchups? My friend, you are watching the wrong company.
Wilson was supposed to fight Gabriel Santos, but he wound up with Jean "Lord Assassin" Silva instead. He was outstruck more than 2:1, he looked to be running about half as fast as his opponent, and he got dropped facefirst with uppercuts before the first round was over.
Not every fighter belongs in the UFC. You can find a passion for martial arts as a child, spend your entire life learning and honing those skills, become so accomplished in your field that you could personally defeat the vast majority of the Earth's population in single combat, and still go 0-3 in the UFC and be considered a joke by the largest mixed martial arts audience on the planet. Combat sports are inherently cruel.
Westin Wilson has not shown a spark of belonging in the UFC. He's tall and rangy, but fighters he has half a foot of height on enter his space effortlessly. He scrambles for submissions but gets punched straight through them.
Just like Westin's first two opponents Jeka Saragih is much shorter and has a visible range disadvantage, and just like Westin's first two opponents Jeka Saragih is an accomplished striker with a whole bunch of knockouts including a real violent one against the legitimately decent Lucas Alexander in his last appearance, and just like Westin's two opponents, Jeka Saragih will probably drop Westin in less time than it took you to read this, and it's kind of a tragedy. JEKA SARAGIH BY TKO.
WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Josefine Knutsson (7-0) vs Julia Polastri (12-3)
This is a story of two different spectrums of luck. Both of these women won Contender Series contracts within the same three-week period last year, but only Josefine Knutsson has managed a UFC fight, and it was an extremely fortunate one. Knutsson was booked into her debut just 25 days after a three-round fight that saw her get hit 81 times, which, to be honest, should be fucking illegal. What's more, she was booked against promotional favorite and now top-fifteen-ranked Iasmin Lucindo as a sacrificial lamb. But Lucindo got hurt and Knutsson got Marnic Mann instead, who was, to be respectfully blunt, not up to the task. Knutsson's followup was to be against Julia Polastri, a one-time champion out of Brazil and a two-time Contender Series veteran who, having finally succeeded, was eager to get her shot. But Knutsson withdrew, and the UFC tried to rebook Polastri against yet another Contender Series debutant, Stephanie Luciano, only for Luciano to contract dengue fever.
So they just sort of gave up and rebooked the original fight. Knutsson's a sizable favorite here, but I'm not convinced, and Polastri's knockout over Invicta champ Jéssica Delboni means a lot more to me than Josefine going tooth and nail with Isis Verbeek. JULIA POLASTRI BY SUBMISSION.
FEATHERWEIGHT: Melquizael Costa (20-7) vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-11)
I think some matches get signed up just to make someone in management laugh. The UFC currently recognizes 116 active Featherweights on their roster. Out of all of those fighters, they have chosen to match up the only two fighters who both got the shit punched out of them by Steve Garcia in their last fight. In April of 2023, Shayilan Nuerdanbieke broke a three-fight winning streak by meeting Steve Garcia; he clearly won the first round, came out for the second and promptly got his liver kicked out and his face pounded in for good measure. Eight months later, in the UFC's penultimate event of the year, Melquizael Costa celebrated his first-ever UFC victory by meeting Steve Garcia; he clearly won the first round, came out for the second and promptly got lamped by a right hand, nearly choked out, and elbowed into oblivion for good measure.
It is half a year later. Both men carry the Steve Garcia-shaped shame in their hearts, and they can only resolve it by beating each other to a bloody pulp. My heart is with MELQUIZAEL COSTA BY DECISION, but whoever wins, the Garcia memories will be there for the rest of thgeir lives.